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261.
Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. 相似文献
262.
Journal of Paleolimnology - Analysis of Cladocera (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) subfossil remains in lake sediments features prominently in paleolimnological studies. It is well known, however, that... 相似文献
263.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling Hermann Held Andrey Ganopolski Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(2-3):149-163
The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO2 concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO2, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C. 相似文献
264.
Using a One-and-a-Half Order Closure Model of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Surface Flux Footprint Estimation 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
A knowledge of the distribution of the contribution of upwind sources to measurements of vertical scalar flux densities is
important for the correct interpretation of eddy covariance data. Several approaches have been developed to estimate this
so-called footprint function. Here a new approach based on the ensemble-averaged Navier—Stokes equations is presented. Comparisons
of numerical results using this approach with results from other studies under a range of environmental conditions show that
the model predictions are robust. Moreover, the approach outlined here has the advantage of a potential wide applicability,
due to an ability to take into account the heterogeneous nature of underlying surfaces. For example, the model showed that
any variations in surface drag, such as must occur in real life heterogeneous canopies, can exert a marked influence of the
shape and extent of flux footprints. Indeed, it seems likely that under such circumstances, estimates of surface fluxes will
be weighted towards areas of highest foliage density (and therefore quite likely higher photosynthetic rates) close to the
measurement sensor.
Three-dimensional footprints during the day and night were also determined for a mixed coniferous forest in european Russia.
A marked asymmetry of the footprint in the crosswind direction was observed, this being especially pronounced for non-uniform
plant distributions involving vegetation types with different morphological and physiological properties. The model also found
that, other things being equal, the footprint peak for forest soil respiration is typically over twice the distance from the
above canopy measurement sensor compared to that for canopy photosynthesis. This result has important consequences for the
interpretation of annual ecosystem carbon balances by the eddy covariance method. 相似文献
265.
Andrey Linhares Bezerra de Oliveira Júlio Carlos Afonso Lilian da Silva Arnaldo Alcover Neto Manuel Castro Carneiro Lílian Irene Dias da Silva Maria Inês Couto Monteiro 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2019,43(4):689-699
Rare earth elements (REEs) are very important to technological development as well as to geochemical and environmental studies. In this work, hydrofluoric acid (HF) was replaced by condensed phosphoric acid (CPA) in the digestion of geological samples, and the quantification of REEs was performed by inductively coupled plasma‐optical emission spectrometry (ICP‐OES). Six international reference materials (RMs), named DC86318, CGL 111, CGL 124, CGL 126, OKA‐2 and COQ‐1 and three Brazilian ore samples, named Araxá, Catalão and Pitinga were analysed. Only zircon and xenotime, which are potential REE‐bearing minerals, were not completely dissolved. Nevertheless, no REE associated with zircon was detected. The investigated digestion method presented many advantages: It was relatively fast (3 h), avoided fluoride precipitation, it was less hazardous because handling diluted H3PO4 is safer than HF, NH4F or NH4HF2 aqueous solutions, it preserved the quartz fittings of the measurement equipment and the final solution contained lower levels of total dissolved solids than those produced by the fusion method. 相似文献
266.
Recently, new on‐shore acquisition designs have been presented with multi‐component sensors deployed in the shallow sub‐surface (20 m–60 m). Virtual source redatuming has been proposed for these data to compensate for surface statics and to enhance survey repeatability. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of replacing the correlation‐based formalism that undergirds virtual source redatuming with multi‐dimensional deconvolution, offering various advantages such as the elimination of free‐surface multiples and the potential to improve virtual source repeatability. To allow for data‐driven calibration of the sensors and to improve robustness in cases with poor sensor spacing in the shallow sub‐surface (resulting in a relatively high wavenumber content), we propose a new workflow for this configuration. We assume a dense source sampling and target signals that arrive at near‐vertical propagation angles. First, the data are preconditioned by applying synthetic‐aperture‐source filters in the common receiver domain. Virtual source redatuming is carried out for the multi‐component recordings individually, followed by an intermediate deconvolution step. After this specific pre‐processing, we show that the downgoing and upgoing constituents of the wavefields can be separated without knowledge of the medium parameters, the source wavelet, or sensor characteristics. As a final step, free‐surface multiples can be eliminated by multi‐dimensional deconvolution of the upgoing fields with the downgoing fields. 相似文献