Modelling of piping collapses and gully headcut landforms:Evaluating topographic variables from different types of DEM

The geomorphic studies are extremely dependent on the quality and spatial resolution of digital elevation model(DEM)data.The unique terrain characteristics of a particular landscape are derived from DEM,which are responsible for initiation and development of ephemeral gullies.As the topographic features of an area significantly influences on the erosive power of the water flow,it is an important task the extraction of terrain features from DEM to properly research gully erosion.Alongside,topography is highly correlated with other geo-environmental factors i.e.geology,climate,soil types,vegetation density and floristic composition,runoff generation,which ultimately influences on gully occurrences.Therefore,terrain morphometric attributes derived from DEM data are used in spatial prediction of gully erosion susceptibility(GES)mapping.In this study,remote sensing-Geographic information system(GIS)tech-niques coupled with machine learning(ML)methods has been used for GES mapping in the parts of Semnan province,Iran.Current research focuses on the comparison of predicted GES result by using three types of DEM i.e.Advanced Land Observation satellite(ALOS),ALOS World 3D-30 m(AW3D30)and Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer(ASTER)in different resolutions.For further progress of our research work,here we have used thirteen suitable geo-environmental gully erosion conditioning factors(GECFs)based on the multi-collinearity analysis.ML methods of conditional inference forests(Cforest),Cubist model and Elastic net model have been chosen for modelling GES accordingly.Variable's importance of GECFs was measured through sensitivity analysis and result show that elevation is the most important factor for occurrences of gullies in the three aforementioned ML methods(Cforest=21.4,Cubist=19.65 and Elastic net=17.08),followed by lithology and slope.Validation of the model's result was performed through area under curve(AUC)and other statistical indices.The validation result of AUC has shown that Cforest is the most appropriate model for predicting the GES assessment in three different DEMs(AUC value of Cforest in ALOS DEM is 0.994,AW3D30 DEM is 0.989 and ASTER DEM is 0.982)used in this study,followed by elastic net and cubist model.The output result of GES maps will be used by decision-makers for sustainable development of degraded land in this study area.     

Quantitative analysis of earthquake fatalities: case of Iran

Earthquakes in Iran are major and chronic disasters, but there is a seemingly downward trend in the number of lives lost from earthquake disasters in the past five decades. This paper particularly examines whether factors such as urbanization, literacy rate, wealth, and retrofitting measures have contributed to the declining trend of fatalities over past decades. Data records of 1960–2010 have been used to demonstrate the fatalities trend and a shorter series of 1990–2010 has been used to carry out a statistical analysis due to limited availability of information on retrofitting practices in the country. Regression models run in two stages. The first stage consists of normalized fatalities of Iran’s earthquakes, regressed on urbanization, wealth, and retrofitting. The second stage involves the measure of retrofit as the dependent variable regressed over urbanization and/or wealth as explanatory variables. The resulted regression models clearly explain the importance of retrofitting measure in saving lives in earthquakes disasters, as well as providing economic advantages and robust environment to the population. The study provides significant guidance for public policy. Undoubtedly, retrofitting, started in the country from 1990, has decreased the number of deaths; nonetheless, the measure is found to be mostly enforced in the cities and not in rural areas. Decision makers can use the results of this study to prioritize retrofit in rural areas, more than ever, and as much as possible.     

Numerical evaluation of liquefaction-induced damages in composite breakwaters and its application for performance-based improvement design

Breakwaters provide a calm sea basin for ships and protect harbor facilities by reflecting wave energy toward the open sea area. Their performance under environmental loadings is the main concern for coastal engineers. Liquefaction susceptibility of loose sediments of seabed threatens performance of these structures. The article investigates soil liquefaction effects on the seismic performance of Iran liquefied natural gas (LNG) composite breakwater. Performance-based design method, considering both grade of the breakwater and acceptable level of damages, was selected as design philosophy. Liquefaction-induced damages to the breakwater were determined by numerical analysis. Since the obtained level of deformations did not meet allowable damages, soil improvement against liquefaction was considered. Different improvement patterns were proposed based on distribution of pore pressure ratio (r_u) beneath the breakwater to control its seismic performance. This investigation revealed that the most important area for soil improvement is located near the toes of breakwater to control the slope instability and performance of the breakwater.     

Predicting flow liquefaction,a constitutive model approach

In this paper, flow liquefaction criterion for contractive loose sands is analytically extracted based on the fundamental definition of flow liquefaction. In order to obtain the closed form of this criterion, Dafalias–Manzari constitutive model is employed; so the stress ratio at the onset of flow liquefaction is presented as a function of model parameters, state parameter and void ratio. Flow liquefaction line, as a graphical form of suggested criterion in stress space, shows that the peak points of undrained stress paths with same void ratios are not necessarily in a straight line. In order to validate the reliability of proposed flow liquefaction line to predict the onset of instability, it has been compared with the results of experimental tests performed on Toyoura, Ottawa and Leighton Buzzard sands. The verification results show that the present criterion can satisfactorily predict the onset of flow liquefaction in monotonic and cyclic undrained tests of saturated sands as well as the structural collapse in constant deviatoric stress tests of loose dry sands.     

Prediction of River Stage-Discharge Process Based on a Conceptual Model Using EEMD-WT-LSSVM Approach

Water Resources - This study proposed a hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble...     

Capturing the time-dependence in the precipitation process for weather risk assessment

This work investigates the seasonal, long-term and time-dependence properties of the precipitation process using daily precipitation amount records in Calgary and develops occurrence–amount models which capture the complex properties of the process. Data show that: (a) the probability of precipitation occurrence not only depends on the occurrence of the previous days, but also depends on the amount values. Moreover this dependence varies with season. (b) The expected amount and its volatility depend on the occurrence as well as the amount on the previous days—these dependencies reveal seasonal patterns. (c) There is a strong long-term dependence in Calgary’s data. The proposed models in this work satisfy these properties. A large set of covariates is built to capture the complexity of various properties of the precipitation process. A grouped sequential model selection approach is used to pick the appropriate covariates which works by assigning the predictors to various groups and sequentially exploring them. This framework is assessed by comparing the simulations from the models to the observed data. This confirms a satisfactory agreement.     

Supergene Mass-Balance Study Assuming Zero Lateral Copper Flux Using Geostatistics to Recognize Metal Source Zones in Exotic Copper Deposits

Recognition of effective factors that influence the spatial extension of supergene weathering zones is important both for the identification of high potential areas of exotic deposits and for the cost-effective planning of mining. In particular, recognition of exotic mineralization around porphyry copper deposits early in mine development prevents them from being buried beneath mine infrastructures such as waste dump and tailing structures. Mass-balance modeling, a practical method for determining high potential areas of undiscovered exotic mineralization, investigates important factors in forming exotic deposits. Mass-balance modeling is a two-phase methodology that becomes progressively more detailed. An initial result, presented here as phase 1, is based solely on Cu assays. Phase 2 incorporates relict sulfide mineral studies to improve phase 1 modeling results and computes actual fluxes of copper that escaped vertically downward from the leached cap to form the enrichment blanket and then flowed laterally away to form exotic mineralization. In addition, geostatistical approaches, especially sequential Gaussian simulation, are useful tools for investigating the spatial relationships and modeling of mass-balance results in phase 1 studies. This paper introduces a method for interpolation and downscaling of the preliminary mass-balance analysis (phase 1) to highlight the role of geological features in the evolution of the supergene process. Using only copper assays without any need for relict sulfide mineralogy, this approach can be used to approximately identify the geographic direction of metal movement in exotic copper deposits, and thus serve as an initial exploration guide in prospecting for exotic deposits. For this, a vertical columnar block model was constructed for each of the supergene weathering zones and preliminary analysis of mass balance was conducted to reconstruct the apparent total leached zone column height assuming zero lateral flux. This analysis was applied to each of the vertical block model columns. The results of mass balance were interpolated in a 5?×?5 m grid by sequential Gaussian simulation method, and the simulated surface of the total leached zone was conflated with geological features. The roles of topography, argillic alteration and linear structures were identified in the transport of supergene solutions in the Miduk porphyry copper deposit of Iran. In the northern section of the deposit, which is in accordance with the topography gradient and the presence of advanced argillic alteration zone, the computed top total of leaching is below the actual surface topography, whereas the hypogene isograd curves confirm the expansion of primary copper in these areas. The northern section of the deposit was introduced as a susceptible area for the removal of copper-bearing solutions from the supergene enrichment system.

     

The critical stage for inducing oviparity and embryonic diapause in parthenogenetic Artemia(Crustacea: Anostraca): an experimental study

The brine shrimp Artemia exhibits two reproductive modes:1)oviparity,producing diapause embryos;and 2)ovoviviparity,producing free-swimming nauplii.Previous studies have suggested the existence of a critical stage that determines the reproductive mode.Physicochemical factors,such as photoperiod,temperature,and salinity,have been suggested to irreversibly affect the reproductive mode of oocytes during this critical stage.In this study,experiments were carried out using a photoperiod and temperature-sensitive parthenogenetic Artemia clone where maternal Artemia were shifted bidirectionally between ovoviviparity(18 h L:6 h D,27℃)and oviparity(6 h L:18 h D,19℃)culture conditions.In the main experiment(Artemia shifted at six different stages including the post-larva Ⅱ to adult Ⅱ),the reproductive mode of first brood was converted when shifting was performed on post-larva II and III but was not converted when females were shifted after post-larva Ⅲ.A supplementary experiment further revealed that the reproductive mode of first brood could be altered when shifting females at an "early phase of postlarva Ⅳ",characterized by a developing ovisac reaching the middle of the third abdominal segment,ventral spines,and some oocytes growing larger than the others.In both experiments,reproductive modes of the second brood were significantly affected when the shifting was performed on post-larva Ⅳ.These results suggest that the critical stage for inducing oviparity and embryonic diapause is at the previtellogenic stage of oocytes,or at maternal "early phase of post-larva Ⅳ" for the first-brood offspring.During this stage,differential gene expression patterns of the two destined oocytes may be triggered by the token stimuli signals received by the oocytes.     

天然气水合物形成过程中多组分气-固相平衡系数计算方法研究

大量的实验模拟计算需要知道天然气水合物的形成条件。可利用方程式来确定天然气水合物形成条件的数据。目前这种模式和等式的准确性取决于实验数据和理论值的准确性,二者相互依存。实验数据代表实际的物理条件,数据的获取较困难。虽然理论方法略有改变,但从宏观来讲实验方法和数据仍相对稳定。实验通常测试的是液相,而预测的是固相水合物。有关固相水合物实验数据的准确性很难完全通过实验阐述清楚,因为,固相天然水合物的测试遇到了不少困难,如流体堵塞、多相性、取样困难和固相样品描述等。在预测含低硫天然气和含微量CO2和/或H2S的天然…     

Experimental study on local scour around single oblong pier fitted with a collar in a 180 degree flume bend

In this work, investigation on the development of local scour around an oblong pier in a 180 degree flume bend is presented. Scour hole can cause failure of the bridge especially during the river floods. In this study, the use of oblong collars for reducing the effects of local scour at a bridge pier is presented together with the time aspect of the scour development. Tests were conducted using one oblong pier in positions of 60degree under one flow conditions. The study was conducted using a physical hydraulic model operated under clear-water conditions in cohesionless bed material. In this study, the time development of the local scour around the oblong pier fitted with and without collar plates was studied. Investigated was the effect of size and elevation collar on the time development of scour and its efficacy at preventing scour at a bridge pier. The time development of the scour hole around the model pier with and without a collar installed was compared with similar studies on bridge piers. The results of the model study indicated that the maximum depth of scour is highly dependent on the experimental duration. It was observed that, as the minimum depth of scour occurs for the square collar at width of 3B placed at elevation of 0.1B below the bed and the size of a collar plate increases, the scour decreases. Measuring depth of scouring based on experimental observation, an empirical relation is developed with regression coefficient 95%.