The Lemnos 8 January 2013 (M w = 5.7) earthquake: fault slip,aftershock properties and static stress transfer modeling in the north Aegean Sea

We investigate mainshock slip distribution and aftershock activity of the 8 January 2013 M _w?=?5.7 Lemnos earthquake, north Aegean Sea. We analyse the seismic waveforms to better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of earthquake rupture within the seismogenic layer of the crust. Peak slip values range from 50 to 64 cm and mean slip values range from 10 to 12 cm. The slip patches of the event extend over an area of dimensions 16?×?16 km². We also relocate aftershock catalog locations to image seismic fault dimensions and test earthquake transfer models. The relocated events allowed us to identify the active faults in this area of the north Aegean Sea by locating two, NE–SW linear patterns of aftershocks. The aftershock distribution of the mainshock event clearly reveals a NE–SW striking fault about 40 km offshore Lemnos Island that extends from 2 km up to a depth of 14 km. After the mainshock most of the seismic activity migrated to the east and to the north of the hypocenter due to (a) rupture directivity towards the NE and (b) Coulomb stress transfer. A stress inversion analysis based on 14 focal mechanisms of aftershocks showed that the maximum horizontal stress is compressional at N84°E. The static stress transfer analysis for all post-1943 major events in the North Aegean shows no evidence for triggering of the 2013 event. We suggest that the 2013 event occurred due to tectonic loading of the North Aegean crust.     

The role of boundary organizations in climate change adaptation from the perspective of municipal practitioners

In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics.     

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

Derivation Of Refractive Index And Temperature Gradients From Optical Scintillometry To Correct Atmospherically Induced Errors For Highly Precise Geodetic Measurements

Refraction effects of optical beams are generally caused by an inhomogeneous propagation medium and are a major source of systematic errors in the precise optical determination of angles and distances in the atmospheric surface layer. In this contribution a method for deriving vertical temperature and refractive index gradients from optical scintillation is presented. Knowledge of these gradients is required for the compensation of atmospherically induced errors for highly precise terrestrial geodetic measurements, like direct transfer and levelling. The advantage of the present optical method is, that temperature and refractive index gradients can be derived as line-averaged values over the propagation path, which is not possible by meteorological point measurements. Field observations have been carried out with a displaced-beam scintillometer over flat terrain and under different atmospheric conditions in order to verify this method. The experiments show, that this method allows to derive accurate correction values for precise terrestrial geodetic measurements.     

New variable stars from the photographic archive: semi-automated discoveries,attempts at automatic classification and the new field 104 Her

Using 172 plates taken with the 40-cm astrograph of the Sternberg Astronomical Institute(Lomonosov Moscow University) in 1976–1994 and digitized with a resolution of 2400 dpi, we discovered and studied 275 new variable stars. We present the list of our new variables with all necessary information concerning their brightness variations. As in our earlier studies, the new discoveries show a rather large number of high-amplitude Delta Scuti variables, predicting that many stars of this type remain not detected in the whole sky. We also performed automated classification of the newly discovered variable stars based on the Random Forest algorithm. The results of the automated classification were compared to traditional classification and showed that automated classification was possible even with noisy photographic data. However, further improvement of automated techniques is needed, which is especially important when considering the very large numbers of new discoveries expected from all-sky surveys.     

Factors affecting the distribution of potentially toxic elements in surface soils around an industrialized area of northwestern Greece

In order to investigate the factors influencing the distribution of 32 potentially toxic elements in the Ptolemais–Kozani basin, northwestern Greece, 38 soil samples were collected and analyzed. Concentrations of Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, Ti, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, La, Li, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sr, V, Y, and Zn were determined by ICP-AES and concentrations of As, Bi, Cd, Cs, Mo, Rb, Sb, Th, Tl, and U by ICP-MS. Bivariate analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical analysis were employed to investigate the factors influencing the distribution of the elements determined in the study area. The results indicate that the distribution of the majority of elements determined, especially for Cr, Ni, and associated elements, is greatly influenced by the geology and geomorphology of the study area. Principal component analysis has yielded four factors that explain over 77% of the total variance in the data. These factors are as follows: lithophilic elements that are associated with Al silicates minerals of K (factor I: 29.4%), ultramafic rocks (factor II: 20.5%), elements that are coprecipitated with Fe and Mn oxides (factor III: 18.0%), and anthropogenic activities (factor IV: 9.3%). The anthropogenic activities that influence the distribution of several potentially toxic elements (i.e., Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) are agricultural practices and the deposition of fly ash in the vicinity of the local power stations.     

U-series and oxygen isotope chronology of the mid-Pleistocene Lake Amora (Dead Sea basin)

This study establishes for the first time the chronology and limnological history of Lake Amora (Dead Sea basin, Israel), whose deposits (the Amora Formation) comprise one of the longest exposed lacustrine records of the Pleistocene time. The Amora Formation consists of sequences of laminated primary aragonite and silty-detritus, Ca-sulfate minerals, halite and clastic units. This sedimentary sequence was uplifted and tilted by the rising Sedom salt diapir, exposing ∼320 m of sediments on the eastern flanks of Mt. Sedom (the Arubotaim Cave (AC) section).The chronology of the AC section is based on U-disequilibrium dating (²³⁰Th-²³⁴U and ²³⁴U-²³⁸U ages) combined with floating δ¹⁸O stratigraphy and paleomagnetic constraints. The determination of the ²³⁰Th-²³⁴U ages required significant corrections to account for detrital Th and U. These corrections were performed on individual samples and on suites of samples from several stratigraphic horizons. The most reliable corrected ages were used to construct an age-elevation model that was further tuned to the oxygen isotope record of east Mediterranean foraminifers (based on the long-term similarity between the sea and lake oxygen isotope archives).The combined U-series-δ¹⁸O age-elevation model indicates that the (exposed) Amora sequence was deposited between ∼740 and 70 ka, covering seven glacial-interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 18 to 5).Taking the last glacial Lake Lisan and the Holocene Dead Sea lacustrine systems as analogs of the depositional-limnological environment of Lake Amora, the latter oscillated between wet (glacial) and more arid (interglacial) conditions, represented by sequences of primary evaporites (aragonite and gypsum that require enhanced supply of freshwater to the lakes) and clastic sediments, respectively. The lake evolved from a stage of rapid shifts between high and low-stand conditions during ∼740 to 550 ka to a sabkha-like environment that existed (at the AC site) between 550 and 420 ka. This stage was terminated by a dry spell represented by massive halite deposition at 420 ka (MIS12-11). During MIS10-6 the lake fluctuated between lower and higher stands reaching its highest stand conditions at the late glacial MIS6, after which a significant lake level decline corresponds to the transition to the last interglacial (MIS5) low-stand lake, represented by the uppermost part of the Formation.δ¹⁸O values in the primary aragonite range between 6.0 and −1.3‰, shifting cyclically between glacial and interglacial intervals. The lowest δ¹⁸O values are observed during interglacial stages and may reflect short and intense humid episodes that intermittently interrupted the overall arid conditions. These humid episodes, expressed also by enhanced deposition of travertines and speleothems, seem to characterize the Negev Desert, and in contrast to the overall dominance of the Atlantic-Mediterranean system of rain patterns in the Dead Sea basin, some humid episodes during interglacials may be traced to southern sources.