Holocene hydrological and vegetation changes in southern France inferred by the study of an alluvial travertine system (Saint-Guilhem-le-Désert, Hérault)

A geobotanical study of the travertine system of Saint-Guilhem-le-Désert (southern France) was carried out in order to reconstruct the local Holocene environment in a region where the postglacial vegetation history is poorly documented. The travertinisation process has started at ca. 8500 cal. BP, in a landscape dominated by Pinus sylvestris type (probably Pinus nigra sub sp. salzmannii). Around 7000 cal. BP, the travertine system recorded torrential events not evidenced at the regional scale, showing the particularity of the Verdus hydrological regime. More recently, ca. 5100 cal. BP, a lake or a marsh was filled within the Verdus plain, as attested to by sand and silt particles accumulated in the sequence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Quercus ilex, on south facing slopes, was most likely established between the Bronze Age and the Gallo-Roman period correlatively to the decline of Pinus nigra and deciduous Quercus, most probably under human influence.     

Review of the Huaytapallana project in Peru

In 1969, two consecutive earthquakes activated a reverse fault at an elevation of 4600 m in the Huaytapallana mountain range near Huancayo in central Peru. In 1975, a small geodetic network was established and measured across the fault covering an area of about 1.5 km². The network has been remeasured in 1976, 1977, 1978, and 1982, using standard geodetic instruments, as a joint effort by two Canadian and one German universities in cooperation with the Peruvian Institute of Geophysics. In 1978, the network was expanded to cover 6 km². High-altitude sickness, logistic problems with old vehicles, civil unrest and riots plagued the survey expeditions. The results show a cyclic rigid body motion of the southwest side versus the northeast side of the fault in a general east-west direction of about ± 3 mm/year. The direction of the motion agrees with the direction of compressive forces expected in this subduction region. The next survey campaign is planned for 1987.     

Transitions to Energy and Climate Security in Southeast Asia? Civil Society Encounters with Illiberalism in Thailand and Myanmar

ABSTRACT

All states, whether governed by liberal or illiberal regimes, face the prospect of momentous and potentially catastrophic environmental impacts due to climate change. Historically, energy policy has been directed towards simply achieving energy security. This goal has now been significantly complicated by the need to achieve it while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental non governmental organizations (ENGOs) could play a crucial role in promoting the transition to energy and climate security but the relative (il)liberalism of the political regime they operate under influences their effectiveness. This article assesses how ENGOs have impacted on the transition to energy and climate security in Myanmar and Thailand, two Southeast Asian countries highly susceptible to climate impacts and characterized by illiberal rule. It finds that the impact of ENGOs was highly dependent on their strategies, tactics and operation, with community-level projects providing a key route to effect change under conditions of extreme illiberalism.     

Forecasting the Ethiopian Coffee Price Using Kalman Filtering Algorithm

Ethiopian coffee price is highly fluctuated and has significant effect on the economy of the country. Conducting a research on forecasting coffee price has theoretical and practical importance.This study aims at forecasting the coffee price in Ethiopia. We used daily closed price data of Ethiopian coffee recorded in the period 25 June 2008 to 5 January 2017 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse coffee prices fluctuation. Here, the nature of coffee price is non-stationary and we apply the Kalman filtering algorithm on a single linear state space model to estimate and forecast an optimal value of coffee price. The performance of the algorithm for estimating and forecasting the coffee price is evaluated by using root mean square error (RMSE). Based on the linear state space model and the Kalman filtering algorithm, the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.000016375, which is small enough, and it indicates that the algorithm performs well.     

用卡尔曼滤波算法预测埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格（英文）

埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格波动很大,因此对国家经济发展的影响不容小视,对咖啡价格进行预测具有理论和实践意义。为了分析咖啡价格波动,我们采用来自埃塞俄比亚商品交易所(ECX)记录的2008年6月25日至2017年1月5日期间咖啡日收盘价数据。在这里,咖啡价格的性质是非平稳的,我们在单个线性状态空间模型上应用卡尔曼滤波算法来预测咖啡价格的最优值,主要通过使用均方根误差(RMSE)来评估用于预测咖啡价格的算法的性能。基于线性状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波算法,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.000016375,说明该算法性能良好,研究结果可靠。     

On the Need for Economic Assessment of Natural Capital (A Case Study of Tomsk Oblast)

This article presents the rationale for the need to take into account and assess natural capital as an important factor for viable managerial decision-making concerning the study, use and reproduction of natural resources in the interests of sustainable development. The activity of authorities in Tomsk oblast was used as an example in examining the issues related to integration of accounting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem services in the system of managerial decision-making. We used strategic and normative documents of Tomsk oblast, departmental information and material from previous research into assessments of natural capital. A rationale is given for the need to improve the institutional conditions for proper inventory and assessment of all functions of natural capital and ecosystems in managerial decision-making, namely the development of the monitoring system for economic value in the sphere of environmental management which is based on the system of ecological-economic accounting and constitutes a set of coherent statistical indicators reflecting the status of natural capital. The mechanism is suggested for generation of the information-methodological base of economic assessment of natural capital. It is determined that a qualitatively new information basis integrated into the system of regional management. Qualitatively new information basis integrated into the regional government system will make it possible not to simply obtain information on the flows of expenditures and benefits in the sphere of environmental management but also to ensure interaction between state and municipal authorities and with organizations and the population. The monitoring system for economic value of natural capital and ecosystem services integrated into the region’s executive bodies will permit adaptive governance of environmental management of the region in the face of changes and uncertainty.     

Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.     

Dietary greenhouse gas emissions of meat-eaters,fish-eaters,vegetarians and vegans in the UK

The production of animal-based foods is associated with higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than plant-based foods. The objective of this study was to estimate the difference in dietary GHG emissions between self-selected meat-eaters, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans in the UK. Subjects were participants in the EPIC-Oxford cohort study. The diets of 2,041 vegans, 15,751 vegetarians, 8,123 fish-eaters and 29,589 meat-eaters aged 20–79 were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Comparable GHG emissions parameters were developed for the underlying food codes using a dataset of GHG emissions for 94 food commodities in the UK, with a weighting for the global warming potential of each component gas. The average GHG emissions associated with a standard 2,000 kcal diet were estimated for all subjects. ANOVA was used to estimate average dietary GHG emissions by diet group adjusted for sex and age. The age-and-sex-adjusted mean (95 % confidence interval) GHG emissions in kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents per day (kgCO₂e/day) were 7.19 (7.16, 7.22) for high meat-eaters (?>?=?100 g/d), 5.63 (5.61, 5.65) for medium meat-eaters (50-99 g/d), 4.67 (4.65, 4.70) for low meat-eaters (?<?50 g/d), 3.91 (3.88, 3.94) for fish-eaters, 3.81 (3.79, 3.83) for vegetarians and 2.89 (2.83, 2.94) for vegans. In conclusion, dietary GHG emissions in self-selected meat-eaters are approximately twice as high as those in vegans. It is likely that reductions in meat consumption would lead to reductions in dietary GHG emissions.