Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.     

Storm Surge Hazard in Canada

Storm surges occur frequently in Canada mainlydue to extra-tropical cyclones (ETC'S) also referred to as winter storms. The hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico can affect eastern Canada including Lakes Ontario and Erie regions, after they get modified and acquire some extra-tropical characteristics. Storm surges have occurred both on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the Gulf of St.Lawrence, St.Lawrence Estuary, Bay of Fundy, Hudson Bay, James Bay, Northwest Passage, Beaufort Sea, the Great Lakes and other large lakes such as Lake Winnipeg.Squall lines which are embedded in the largerscale synoptic systems like the ETC'S could also generate storm surges (referred to as edge waves) in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario (edge waves are most prominent in Lake Michigan, but Canada has no territory touching this lake). The effect of climate change on storm surges in the Canadian water bodies could be two-fold. First, there may be some possible intensification of the weather systems and the associated wind fields resulting in bigger surges. Second, and probably even more relevant, is an east-west and north-south shift in the tracks of the weather systems, which could expose certain new areas to storm surge activity.A high priority for proper assessment of storm surge hazard is the production of maps showing inundation zones for storm surges that might occur in populated coastal areas. Such maps can be used to improve public awareness of tsunamis and for planning purposes (i.e., to reduce or avoid the risk).     

湘西沃溪钨锑金矿床辉锑矿脉矿物学特征及其矿床成因指示

辉锑矿脉为沃溪钨锑金矿床最具工业价值的矿石类型。本文报道了近期对该型矿石的主要矿石矿物如自然金、自然锑、辉锑矿、白钨矿、黑钨矿等的观察研究和电子探针分析结果。分析了矿石矿物微量化学成分特征及其所揭示的矿床成因信息。研究表明，矿床成矿应与区域构造—岩浆作用有成因联系。从而建立了该矿床新的成矿机理模式。     

模拟水准测量误差的一种方法

确定水准线路的权和误差模型是当前国际上感兴趣的问题之一。本文把最小模方差-协方差分量估计的原理作了扩充,用于模拟水准测量的误差。通过对德国一个一等水准网的分析,证实了所建议的方法的有效性。     

Geology,stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis-bearing Quaternary palaeolake(s) of Gorzów Wielkopolski (NW Poland,Central Europe)

The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with ¹⁴C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial.     

Impact melt rocks from the Late Paleocene Hiawatha impact structure,northwest Greenland

Impact melt rocks formed during hypervelocity impact events are ideal for studying impact structures. Here, we describe impact melt rock samples collected proximal to the 31 km wide 58 Ma Hiawatha impact structure, northwest Greenland, which is completely covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melt rocks contain diagnostic shock indicators (e.g., planar deformation features [PDF] in quartz and shocked zircon) and form three groups based on melt textures and chemistry: (i) hypocrystalline, (ii) glassy, and (iii) carbonate-based melt rocks. The exposed foreland directly in front of the structure consists of metasedimentary successions and igneous plutons; however, the carbonate-based impactites indicate a mixed target sequence with a significant carbonate-rich component. Well-preserved organic material in some melt rocks indicates that North Greenland at the time of impact was host to abundant organic material, likely a dense high-latitude temperate forest. Geochemical signatures of platinum-group elements in selected samples indicate an extraterrestrial component and support previous identification of a highly fractionated iron impactor in glaciofluvial sand. Our results illustrate the possibility to study impact structures hidden beneath a thick ice sheet based on transported samples and this opens a new avenue for identifying other potential impact craters in Greenland and Antarctica.     

Long-term research catchments to investigate shrub encroachment in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts: Santa Rita and Jornada experimental ranges

Woody plant encroachment is a global phenomenon whereby shrubs or trees replace grasses. The hydrological consequences of this ecological shift are of broad interest in ecohydrology, yet little is known of how plant and intercanopy patch dynamics, distributions, and connectivity influence catchment-scale responses. To address this gap, we established research catchments in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts (near Green Valley, Arizona and near Las Cruces, New Mexico, respectively) that represent shrub encroachment in contrasting arid climates. Our main goals in the coordinated observations were to: (a) independently measure the components of the catchment water balance, (b) deploy sensors to quantify the spatial patterns of ecohydrological processes, (c) use novel methods for characterizing catchment properties, and (d) assess shrub encroachment impacts on ecohydrological processes through modelling studies. Datasets on meteorological variables; energy, radiation, and CO₂ fluxes; evapotranspiration; soil moisture and temperature; and runoff at various scales now extend to nearly 10 years of observations at each site, including both wet and dry periods. Here, we provide a brief overview of data collection efforts and offer suggestions for how the coordinated datasets can be exploited for ecohydrological inferences and modelling studies. Given the representative nature of the catchments, the available databases can be used to generalize findings to other catchments in desert landscapes.     

Spectral discrimination of papyrus vegetation (Cyperus papyrus L.) in swamp wetlands using field spectrometry

Techniques for mapping and monitoring wetland species are critical for their sustainable management. Papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.) is one of the most important species-rich habitats that characterize the Greater St. Lucia Wetlands Park (GSWP) in South Africa. This paper investigates whether papyrus could be discriminated from its co-existing species using ASD field spectrometer data ranging from 300 nm to 2500 nm, yielding a total of 2151 bands. Canopy spectral measurements from papyrus and three other species were collected in situ in the Greater St. Lucia Wetlands Park, South Africa. A new hierarchical method based on three integrated analysis levels was proposed and implemented to spectrally discriminate papyrus from other species as well as to reduce and subsequently select optimal bands for the potential discrimination of papyrus. In the first level of the analysis using ANOVA, we found that there were statistically significant differences in spectral reflectance between papyrus and other species on 412 wavelengths located in different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Using the selected 412 bands, we further investigated the use of classification and regression trees (CART) in the second level of analysis to identify the most sensitive bands for spectral discrimination. This analysis yielded eight bands which are considered to be practical for upscaling to airborne or space borne sensors for mapping papyrus vegetation. The final sensitivity analysis level involved the application of Jeffries-Matusita (JM) distance to assess the relative importance of the selected eight bands in discriminating papyrus from other species. The results indicate that the best discrimination of papyrus from its co-existing species is possible with six bands located in the red-edge and near-infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Overall, the study concluded that spectral reflectance of papyrus and its co-existing species is statistically different, a promising result for the use of airborne and satellite sensors for mapping papyrus. The three-step hierarchical approach employed in this study could systematically reduce the dimensionality of bands to manageable levels, a move towards operational implementation with band specific sensors.     

Review of Image Quality Measures for Solar Imaging

Observations of the solar photosphere from the ground encounter significant problems caused by Earth’s turbulent atmosphere. Before image reconstruction techniques can be applied, the frames obtained in the most favorable atmospheric conditions (the so-called lucky frames) have to be carefully selected. However, estimating the quality of images containing complex photospheric structures is not a trivial task, and the standard routines applied in nighttime lucky imaging observations are not applicable. In this paper we evaluate 36 methods dedicated to the assessment of image quality, which were presented in the literature over the past 40 years. We compare their effectiveness on simulated solar observations of both active regions and granulation patches, using reference data obtained by the Solar Optical Telescope on the Hinode satellite. To create images that are affected by a known degree of atmospheric degradation, we employed the random wave vector method, which faithfully models all the seeing characteristics. The results provide useful information about the method performances, depending on the average seeing conditions expressed by the ratio of the telescope’s aperture to the Fried parameter, \(D/r_{0}\). The comparison identifies three methods for consideration by observers: Helmli and Scherer’s mean, the median filter gradient similarity, and the discrete cosine transform energy ratio. While the first method requires less computational effort and can be used effectively in virtually any atmospheric conditions, the second method shows its superiority at good seeing (\(D/r_{0}<4\)). The third method should mainly be considered for the post-processing of strongly blurred images.