Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario,Canada

Amidst changing climates, understanding the world’s water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.     

A review of definitions of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Most workers regard the Main Central Thrust (MCT) as one of the key high strain zones in the Himalaya because it accommodated at least 90 km of...     

A Paddock to reef monitoring and modelling framework for the Great Barrier Reef: Paddock and catchment component

Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...     

Political orientation moderates Americans’ beliefs and concern about climate change

I offer some theoretical insights to help us better understand the moderator effect of political orientation that Larry Hamilton and others have found in recent years. Reflexive modernization theory highlights an emerging tension between those who direct attention to the negative consequences of industrial capitalism such as climate change (e.g., the scientific community and environmental organizations) and those who defend the economic system against such critiques (e.g., the conservative movement). Political divisions in the American public increasingly map onto these societal divisions between critics and defenders of the industrial capitalist order—especially for the issue of climate change. This alignment is facilitated by increased polarization among political elites and balkanization of the news media. Strong evidence of the moderator effect is consistent with the expectations of information processing theory and elite cues hypothesis from political science. Recent empirical findings in political psychology and neuroscience also seem pertinent for explaining this moderator effect. I end by outlining a few implications for climate change research and communication.     

The origin of high δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O zircons: marbles,megacrysts, and metamorphism

The oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) of most igneous zircons range from 5 to 8‰, with 99% of published values from 1345 rocks below 10‰. Metamorphic zircons from quartzite, metapelite, metabasite, and eclogite record δ¹⁸O values from 5 to 17‰, with 99% below 15‰. However, zircons with anomalously high δ¹⁸O, up to 23‰, have been reported in detrital suites; source rocks for these unusual zircons have not been identified. We report data for zircons from Sri Lanka and Myanmar that constrain a metamorphic petrogenesis for anomalously high δ¹⁸O in zircon. A suite of 28 large detrital zircon megacrysts from Mogok (Myanmar) analyzed by laser fluorination yields δ¹⁸O from 9.4 to 25.5‰. The U–Pb standard, CZ3, a large detrital zircon megacryst from Sri Lanka, yields δ¹⁸O = 15.4 ± 0.1‰ (2 SE) by ion microprobe. A euhedral unzoned zircon in a thin section of Sri Lanka granulite facies calcite marble yields δ¹⁸O = 19.4‰ by ion microprobe and confirms a metamorphic petrogenesis of zircon in marble. Small oxygen isotope fractionations between zircon and most minerals require a high δ¹⁸O source for the high δ¹⁸O zircons. Predicted equilibrium values of Δ¹⁸O(calcite-zircon) = 2–3‰ from 800 to 600°C show that metamorphic zircon crystallizing in a high δ¹⁸O marble will have high δ¹⁸O. The high δ¹⁸O zircons (>15‰) from both Sri Lanka and Mogok overlap the values of primary marine carbonates, and marbles are known detrital gemstone sources in both localities. The high δ¹⁸O zircons are thus metamorphic; the 15–25‰ zircon values are consistent with a marble origin in a rock-dominated system (i.e., low fluid_(external)/rock); the lower δ¹⁸O zircon values (9–15‰) are consistent with an origin in an external fluid-dominated system, such as skarn derived from marble, although many non-metasomatized marbles also fall in this range of δ¹⁸O. High δ¹⁸O (>15‰) and the absence of zoning can thus be used as a tracer to identify a marble source for high δ¹⁸O detrital zircons; this recognition can aid provenance studies in complex metamorphic terranes where age determinations alone may not allow discrimination of coeval source rocks. Metamorphic zircon megacrysts have not been reported previously and appear to be associated with high-grade marble. Identification of high δ¹⁸O zircons can also aid geochronology studies that seek to date high-grade metamorphic events due to the ability to distinguish metamorphic from detrital zircons in marble.     

Gold solubility in oxidized and reduced, water-saturated mafic melt

We have performed experiments to evaluate Au solubility in natural, water-saturated basaltic melts as a function of oxygen fugacity. Experiments were carried out at 1000 °C and 200 MPa, and oxygen fugacity was controlled at the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) oxygen fugacity buffer and FMQ + 4. All experiments were saturated with a metal-chloride aqueous solution loaded initially as a 10 wt% NaCl eq. fluid. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ consists of basalt melt, olivine, clinopyroxene, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ + 4 consists of basalt melt, clinopyroxene, magnetite-spinel solid solution, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. Silicate glasses (i.e., quenched melt) and their contained crystalline material were analyzed by using both electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Measured Au concentrations in the quenched melt range from 4.8 μg g⁻¹ to 0.64 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ + 4, and 0.54 μg g⁻¹ to 0.1 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ. The measured solubility of Au in olivine and clinopyroxene was consistently below the LA-ICP-MS limit of detection (i.e., 0.1 μg g⁻¹). These melt solubility data place important limitations on the dissolved Au content of water-saturated, Cl- and S-bearing basaltic liquids at geologically relevant fO₂ values. The new data are compared to published, experimentally-determined values for Au solubility in dry and hydrous silicate liquids spanning the compositional range from basalt to rhyolite, and the effects of melt composition, oxygen fugacity, pressure and temperature are discussed.     

Harvest patterns and effort dynamics of indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the eastern Torres Strait reef line fishery

The reef line fishery (RLF) in eastern Torres Strait (ETS) is unique in that it has both a commercial indigenous sector and a commercial non-indigenous sector. Recently, concerns have been expressed by all stakeholders about the long-term sustainability of the fishery. These concerns have been exacerbated by the lack of detailed catch and effort information from both sectors, which has precluded any formal assessment of the fishery. In this paper, we characterise the harvest patterns and effort dynamics of the indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the ETS RLF using a range of data sources including commercial logbooks, community freezer records, voluntary logbooks and observer surveys. We demonstrate that bycatch is a significant component of the catch for both sectors and identify substantial differences in harvest patterns and effort dynamics between the sectors. Differences between sectors were observed in species composition and spatial and temporal patterns in catch, effort and catch per unit effort. These results highlight the inherent variation in catch and effort dynamics between the two commercial sectors of the ETS RLF and provide valuable information for the development of future assessments and appropriate management strategies for the fishery. The more reliable estimates of harvest patterns and effort dynamics for both sectors obtained from observer surveys will also assist in resolving issues relating to allocation of reef fish resources in Torres Strait.     

Late Tertiary paleoclimatic interpretation from lacustrine rhythmites in the Gray Fossil Site,northeastern Tennessee,USA

The Gray Fossil Site (GFS) includes a small (<2 ha) paleosinkhole lake fill with an exceptionally well-preserved record of sedimentation and fossils from the latest Miocene to earliest Pliocene. The uppermost lacustrine stratigraphy is characterized by rhythmites that regularly alternate between coarse-grained and organic-rich (A) laminae and fine-grained, silty clay (B) laminae. Both the A and B components are almost exclusively comprised of exogenic sediment (including organic matter). Periodicities of 24 and 4.4 are recorded within a continuous 96 interpreted year sequence of rhythmite sediment. In a small lake with a poorly oxygenated bottom, the presence of laterally continuous laminated sediment that includes well-known periodicities in rhythmite thickness is interpreted as representing annually generated varves that correspond to seasonal variations in sedimentation. The distinctly larger fraction of medium sand-size quartz grains present within the A laminae, as well as the abrupt transitions between A and B components suggest that the rhythmites represent deposition during alternating high-energy and lower-energy seasons, which is consistent with a monsoonal precipitation pattern. The seasonal climate may relate to changes in the ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions. The periodicity at 24 interpreted years is consistent with the well-known Hale solar cycle. The 4.4 interpreted-year periodicity occurs within the ENSO frequency band, and if this documentation of ENSO-like interannual climate change is correct, then it suggests that ENSO operated at times during the warm Earth conditions characterizing the late Tertiary.     

Modern influences on chironomid distribution in western Ireland: potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction

Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from the North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s past environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based research, has been lacking. In order to further develop chironomid-based palaeolimnological investigations, a calibration set was constructed to determine the dominant environmental controls on modern chironomids in western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected from surface sediments of 50 lakes. The lakes were characterised with 36 environmental variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, lake sediment characteristics and land cover within each catchment. In this exploratory study, no specific environmental variable was targeted and lakes were chosen to span gradients of latitude, elevation, depth and trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six environmental variables—mean July air temperature, lake depth, dissolved organic carbon, and percentage catchment land cover of agriculture, peat bog and scrubland—captured a large and statistically significant portion of the variance in the chironomid data. July temperature and agricultural land cover were the most dominant environmental variables, with July temperature proving the most suitable for inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging model was developed to estimate July air temperature, with a coefficient of determination (r _jack ² ) of 0.60 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.57 °C. Results suggest that summer temperature is the dominant influence on chironomid distribution across a wide variety of lake types, and the relatively small RMSEP should allow for more accurate reconstructions of Ireland’s relatively subdued Holocene temperature fluctuations.