支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化。首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型。基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异。究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正。为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化。试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果。该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景。     

90年代加拿大移民地区结构新特点

90年代是战后以来加拿大移民的高峰时期,本文总结了这一时期加拿大移民来源地和居住分布的新特点。其突出表现是：亚洲已成为加拿大最大的移民来源地,其中来自香港、中国大陆和台湾的华人成为最大的移民群体;移民选择大城市,尤其是多伦多、温哥华和蒙特利尔三大都市区作为定居地的倾向进一步加强。     

云南三江并流地区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

利用EOF等方法通过计算1971-2000年30年来云南三江并流地区6个气象台站气温、降水、蒸发资料，分析了云南三江并流地区近30年来气候变化的异常特征及其对生态环境的影响，结果表明：云南三江并流地区气候变化表现为气温升高、降水略有减少和蒸发增大的干旱化气候变化趋势，同时，在气候干旱化和人为活动的影响下出现草场退化、冰川萎缩、雪线上升、土壤沙化和水土流失等生态环境荒漠化问题。     

随深度指数变化的视电阻率解

从横向均匀介质满足的基本方程出发,得到视电阻率核函数的一阶非线性微分方程,通过方程求解,并利用滤波系数法容易得到电阻率随深度任意变化的视电阻率问题。当各层介质电性结构随深度呈指数变化时,还可得到各层之间核函数的递推关系,这对实际介质的正反演问题都有重要意义和应用价值。     

地震综合前兆场建场方法初探

初步建立了一种能反映地震前兆时空演化全貌的无量纲、归一化可迭加的信息场———综合前兆场．通过对研究区（东经１１３°～１２５°,北纬３２°～４４°）前兆场时空演化过程的分析发现,地震前前兆场由正常的低值离散逐渐发展为围绕震中呈高值封闭状态,震后恢复正常．该方法的独特之处在于,避开了某些单项异常对应某具体源的分析,而是只考虑异常．根据前兆场的变化可以确定震源的大致位置     

西藏东部大气降水氧同位素组成特征

The Xizang Plateau, with a common altitude of more than 4000 m sbove sea level,has long been celebrated as “The Roof of the World”. In order to study oxygen isotopic composition of meteoric water in the Xizang Plateau Region and its relationship with the attitude, we made an investigation tour to the Xizang Plateau, starting from Guizhow, during 1979 from July to October, and 79 meteoric Water samples were collected, including brook, well, lake, snow, firn, spring and running waters, at different altitudes. Oxygen isotope analyses indicate that the isotopie composition of meteoric water in the areas more than 4000g and in the western parts of SichuanGaizhow shows remarkable altitude effect. There is a negative correlation between δ^28O and altitude, which is reflected by --δ^18O = 0.0026H 7.75. The average δ^18O value for metcoric water in the areas: more than 4000m above sea level turns out to be --18.15‰ is evident that δ^18O value for lake water on the plateau is related to its water supply. δ^18O value for lake water, in which the evaporation is greater than supply,is approximately three or four times higher than that of supplied water, averaging -5.74‰. Oxygen isotopic compasition of geothermal water can be compared with that of local meteoric water, but shows certain δ^18O-shift, suggesting that the main water-supply source seems to be meteoric water in the same area.     

华南某花岗岩型铀矿床成矿机理的铀铅同位素体系研究

The uranium deposit studied in this paper occurs in a Precambrian (Xuefengian)granite batholith. The emplacement age of the granite is 760 m.y. The average content of uranium in the granite is 7 ppm, but the yield of leachsd U is higher With an average of about 33.8%. The granitic rocks, contain; Some uraninite. Uranium mineralization mainly takes the form of siliceous veins With an age of 47 m.y. K-feldspar. present in the granite and pyrite associated with pitchblende were massspectrometrically analyzed for Pb isotopic compositious, characterized by anomalous lead. A reasonably linear array can be seen on the ^207Pb/^206Pb--^205Pb/^204Pb plot, implying a genetic connection between the rock and the ore, and a derivation of rock-forming materials from. a uranium-rich source. According to the continuous-growth model for anomalous lead, evolution, two isochrons give the. ages-of about 764 m.y. and 708 m.y.for ore-forming materials, close to the emplacement age of .the granite batholith. This indicates that the ore-forming materials came from the granite batholith. Eight granite samples collected from the mining .area were analyzed, but no uranium-lead ages could be worked out because of the pregressive destruction of the closed U-Pb isotopic system since granite emplacement, which resulted in the loss of uranium(78%). It can be imagined that in the period of continental weathering the surface water would infiltrate downwards, leaching out large amounts of uranium from the granitic rocks to form infiltration solution. The solution was heated at great depth and then found its way upwards, on which it dissolved constantly U from the rocks to form the uranium deposit.     

山西省交口县赵家圪垛稀土铌钽矿矿床特征

通过国土资源大调查工作中对山西铝(粘)土矿含矿岩系中稀有稀土金属矿资源评价,利用槽探、浅并、钻孔及分析测试、选矿试验等方法手段,在赵家圪垛矿区中发现含有Nb、Ta、Sc、Sr、Ga、Li六种稀有元素,15种稀土元素,其中稀土总量(REO)、(Nb+Ta)2O5(岩)密切相关,并与含矿岩系产状一致.稀土、铌钽矿矿床规模达到大型,是铝(粘)土矿含矿岩系层位中一种新的矿床类型.     

东营市国土资源局东营分局

东营区是东营市的中心区,胜利油田所在地,全区辖4个镇6个街道办事处,总人口60.7万人总面积为1156平方千米。全区宜农土地面积为1.55万公顷,具有得天独厚的资源优势,土地开发整理潜力很大。多年来,东营分局立足于东营中心城区实际,树立科学发展观,坚持"土地资源与土地资产管理并重,管理与服务并重"的原则,认真贯彻落实土地管理法律法规,不断深化土地使用制度改革,全面推行"五统一"管理;依法保护耕地和矿产资源,挖掘土地资源潜力,努力实现全区耕地总量动态平衡;切实搞好用地服务,保障建设项目和油田打井用地需要,促进地方经济发展;加大村居改造工作力度,大力集约节约用地;依法行政,规范管理,维护正常的经济秩序,从而有力地推动了国土资源管理事业不断发展。先后荣获"山东省土地利用总体规划优秀成果一等奖"、"山东省科按进步一等奖"等多项科技成果奖;荣获"省级文明单位"、"全国建设用地管理先进单位"、"全国国土资源系统‘四五’法制宣传教育先进单位"、"全省土地管理系统先进集体"、"全省国土资源系统先进集体"、"全省国土系统‘四五’法制宣传教育先进单位"、"全省土地开发整理工作先进单位"、"全省地籍管理规范化建设先进单位"、"全省国土资源执法模范县(区)"、"全     

Impact of nonlinear processes on formation of the Kuroshio large meander path in a barotropic inflow-outflow model

Based on a barotropic inflow-outflow model,we examine the formation of the Kuroshio large meander(LM) using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method.Both linear and nonlinear evolutions of such perturbations obtained by this method are investigated.The results show that the nonlinear evolution can result in the Kuroshio transition from a straight to LM path,whereas the linear evolution cannot.This implies that nonlinearity plays an important role in the formation of the Kuroshio LM path.The nonlinearity exists as advection in the evolution equations of the perturbation derived from the barotropic inflow-outflow model,namely the nonlinear advection of the perturbation by the perturbation(NAPP).By examining the role of this nonlinearity,we find that the NAPP tends to move the cyclonic eddy induced by the CNOP-type perturbation westward.Together with the beta effect,this offsets part of the eastward advection caused by the interaction between the perturbation and the background flow.Hence,the eastward movement of the cyclonic eddy is significantly weakened,effectively causing the eddy to develop.The sufficient evolution of this cyclonic eddy leads to the formation of the Kuroshio LM.