0～6 h定量降雪(雨)预报技术及其在温哥华冬奥会中的应用

利用中尺度数值预报模式与雷达回波外推技术相结合,围绕SNOWV10项目的科学目标,在自动判识降水相态(雨、雪或雨雪混合物)基础上,利用雷达反演降雪(雨)关系,建立短时(0～6 h)定量降雪(雨)预报方法,并集成到GRAPES-SWIFT临近预报系统,为温哥华冬奥会提供实时场馆预报产品.从2010年2月冬奥会使用情况看,所建立的定量降雪(雨)预报技术,一定程度满足高纬度冬季降雪(雨)临近预报预警的需求,但降水(雨或雪)预报量级偏小,针对场馆的降水预报起止时间节奏偏差较大,各时次预报一致性有待改进.     

冬半年500hpa月平均格点资料与内蒙古夏季雨量的关系

本文用模糊聚类分析把全区夏季降水分成四个区域，分别计算出每区的平均降水距平百分率和覆盖率。并以500hpa相关区域高度和降水自身周期作因子，用逐步回归双重分析方法建立起8个预报方程，其历史拟合率较高且试用效果较好。     

模式动力过程与物理过程耦合及其对台风预报的影响研究

中国南海台风模式是基于GRAPES的热带中尺度模式,采用半隐半拉格朗日时间差分方案,借助Helmholtz方程进行隐式求解,然后计算物理过程,并把各物理量反馈到动力预报场,实现动力过程与物理过程耦合。为了探讨耦合方案对预报精度的影响,在原方案的基础上,设计了新的技术方案,主要包括两项技术改进。其一是考虑温度、水汽的物理反馈对气压场影响,将间接导出的气压反馈值返回动力场;其二是在第一项技术改进的基础上,将物理反馈值作为模式Helmholtz方程的右端项参与隐式求解,物理反馈在动力约束条件下实现与动力过程耦合。针对新方案对台风路径预报的影响开展个例和批量试验研究。个例试验研究表明,新方案明显地提高了台风预报水平,特别是提高了移动速度的预报准确率;2013年批量试验结果分析,如文中给出的台风路径预报、等压要素预报准确率对比分析,说明新技术方案整体提高模式预报精度。     

广东茂名地区二叠以状硅质岩成因地球化学特征及其沉积环境意义

在广东茂名地区二叠系地层中存在地导整合产生的层状硅质岩。硅质岩富Ｆｅ，Ｍｎ，相对贫Ａｌ；富集Ａｓ，Ｓｂ，Ｂｉ，Ｇａ等微量元素，稀土元素总量低，Ｃｅ弱负异常，重稀土相对富集，δ＾３０Ｓｉ值变化范围为０．０００３～０．０００７，。δ＾１８Ｏ值变化范围为０．０１４８～０．０２２３，均具热水沉积硅质岩的地球化学特征，在Ａｌ－Ｆｅ－Ｍｎ－（Ｎｉ＋Ｃｏ＋Ｃｕ）三角图上，本区硅质岩均属于典型的热水积硅质岩，硅质     

分级加卸载作用下冻结界面黏弹塑性剪切蠕变解耦分析研究

桩-土界面间冻结力及荷载作用下界面的剪切力学行为是决定冻土区桩基础承载性能和荷载传递的关键。由于冰的显著流变性及高含冰量冻土区上限附近厚层地下冰的广泛分布特征,桩基础中上位具有的冰冻结界面剪切蠕变特性对桩基础的承载性能有显著影响。为研究桩冰冻结界面剪切变形特征及其内在机制,开展了-3℃、-5℃下冰-钢管结构分级加卸载剪切蠕变试验。通过对变形曲线的分段独立解耦,分析了冻结界面的黏弹塑性剪切变形行为。结果表明,界面剪切变形可分解为瞬弹性(S_ie)、瞬塑性(S_ip)、黏塑性(S_vp)以及黏弹性变形(S_ve)。广义弹性剪切模量随分级荷载的增加逐渐变大,表明加卸载过程中结构未加速破坏前界面存在明显的强化效应。界面剪切蠕变特征随剪应力水平的增加由衰减向非衰减过渡。其中,黏弹性变形和低剪应力水平下黏塑性变形均表现为衰减性,且荷载越大,黏弹性变形越大。高应力水平下黏塑性表现为非衰减性,且变形速率随剪应力水平增加显著提升。整体而言,冻结界面塑性变形值占总累计变形的比例先减小,后增大,其中瞬塑性变形主要存在于应力水平较...     

南海上层经向翻转环流的低频变化

The low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation(MOC) in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) product for the period of 1900–2010. A dynamical decomposition method is used in which the MOC is decomposed into the Ekman, external mode, and vertical shear components. Results show that all the three dynamical components contribute to the formation of the seasonal and annual mean shallow MOC in the SCS. The shallow MOC in the SCS consists of two cells: a clockwise cell in the south and an anticlockwise cell in the north; the former is controlled by the Ekman flow and the latter is dominated by the external barotropic flow, with the contribution of the vertical shear being to reduce the magnitude of both cells. In addition, the strength of the MOC in the south is found to have a falling trend over the past century, due mainly to a weakening of the Luzon Strait transport(LST) that reduces the transport of the external component. Further analysis suggests that the weakening of the LST is closely related to a weakening of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a southward shift of the North Equatorial Current(NEC) bifurcation and thus a stronger transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon.     

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.     

IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY WAVE DRAG PARAMETERIZATION

The parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by sub-grid scale orography(GWDO), which has been used in the regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM), is extended to include the effect of mountain flow blocking drag(MBD). The extended scheme is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization, including a cold air outbreak over southern China and a monthly verification in February 2012. The experiment results show that the GWDO and MBD parameterization both improves the forecasting of the cold air outbreaks over southern China, as well as alleviations of system bias of GRAPES_TMM.(1) The extended scheme alleviates the strong southerly wind and high surface temperature simulation during the cold air outbreak, especially over northern Guangxi and Guangdong(NGG) province, where local high surface temperature simulation reduces nearly 5 degree.(2) The MBD parameterization improves southerly wind simulations over NGG, as well as surface temperature forecasts improvement over Guangxi, Guizhou province and southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau(YUP), and low level southerly wind simulation improvement over intertidal zone over south China.(3) The formation of MBD is mainly in the mountain area(Wuyi, Daba mountain, east of YUP) and coastal area. The MBD over plateau, which is mainly formed at the west of 105°E, is stronger and thicker than that over Nanling mountain.(4) The improvement of GWDO and MBD parameterization is stable in model physics. MBD parameterization demonstrates more overall improvements in the forecasts than GWDO, and the larger of the model forecast error is, the greater improvements of MBD contribute to. Overall, the extended GWDO scheme successfully improves the simulations of meteorological elements forecasting during cold air outbreaks.     

非饱和黄土地基降雨入渗离心模型试验及多物理量联合监测

对非饱和土降雨入渗过程及其致灾机制的深入认识有赖于室内外试验及多物理量联合监测。基于离心机超重力环境下土体响应监测技术,开展了非饱和黄土地基降雨入渗离心模型试验,测试研究了超重力环境对新研制的微型TDR探针及张力计测量的影响规律,并利用TDR、张力计及弯曲元对降雨入渗过程中土体响应进行多物理量联合监测。研究结果表明:在不同离心加速度下微型TDR探针与给定含水率土体实测原始波形重合,说明超重力环境对TDR测试没有影响,含水率的测试误差在2%以内。在离心机加速过程中,张力计所测吸力下降约2.0~2.9 kPa,当离心加速度稳定在40g时,所测吸力在10min内上升并接近常重力下土体初始吸力。在降雨入渗过程中,埋设在同一深度的TDR探针、张力计和弯曲元对湿润锋响应的时间点基本一致,降雨入渗导致土体含水率增加,基质吸力降低,剪切波速降低。这些多物理量监测数据有助于建立非饱和土含水率-吸力-剪切模量之间的关系。