甘肃永靖黑方台4·29罗家坡黄土滑坡的特征

2015年4月29日上午,甘肃省永靖县盐锅峡镇黑方台滑坡高频发区的党川村罗家坡同一斜坡处连续发生了2次大规模黄土滑坡,总体积约65×10~4m~3,最大滑距630 m,摧毁14户居民房屋和3家工厂.通过现场详细调查、取样试验、1∶500地形测量、滑坡影像、视频等资料分析,对灌溉引发的罗家坡黄土滑坡的特征、滑动过程、形成机理进行了探讨.结果表明:第1次滑坡经过近2 a变形过程,整体突然失稳,高速远程滑动;第2次滑坡变形时间仅3 h,分块逐步滑动,滑动历时长而过程复杂,总体为低速远程滑动.高陡的地形和强度低、水敏感性强的土体是滑坡发生的基础,黄土台塬区长期农业灌溉是引发因素,大量水体入渗形成了20余米厚的饱和软弱基座,使抗剪强度降低,导致斜坡失稳滑动.黄土滑坡高速远程滑动的主要原因是滑坡剪出口位置高,滑动势能大,释放条件好,剪出口下部陡坡段为主要加速段;前方有开阔的滑动空间且有一定坡度、平缓的滑道;滑体底部饱和软弱黏性土在滑道上持续产生超孔隙水压力、液化等低摩阻效应,是远程滑动的润滑剂.同时,两次滑体间还存在冲击加速和能量传递作用.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

一次冬季冰雹的双偏振多普勒天气雷达回波分析

为研究双偏振雷达资料在冬季冰雹监测预警中的应用,利用厦门S波段双偏振雷达资料,分析了2016年12月21日福建漳州冰雹的回波特征。发现在降雹过程中,最强回波达69 dBZ,三体散射回波径向长度达16 km,旁瓣回波切向宽达20 km,低层的钩状回波与入流缺口明显;冰雹区的差分反射率因子Z_(dr)和差分相位常数K_(dp)数值小,冰水混合区的相关系数ρ_(hv)较低。分析表明:此冰雹个例并非典型的超级单体,但存在超级单体的部分偏振回波特征,回波前侧下沉气流存在Z_(dr)弧,可延伸到中层,在入流缺口和后侧下沉气流处,Z_(dr)柱和K_(dp)柱成对出现,中层存在CC的低值环。     

CA FCM方案与其它几种人工增雨评估方案的比较

对河南省12次飞机增雨作业,分别采用作业区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案、区域趋势相关回归分析方案、区域趋势协变量多元回归分析方案、浮动对比区历史回归分析方案（FCM）、以降水量为协变量的CAFCM（ClusterAnalysis〖CD*2〗based Floating Control historical regression Method）方案和以降水量和整层大气可降水量为协变量的CAFCM方案进行效果评估,均得到大于15％的相对增雨量。对结果比较分析表明：协变量由降水量和整层大气降水量两个组成的C     

无人船现状及发展趋势综述

无人船是海洋技术发展的产物,作为一种新型技术手段目前已在海洋调测和防务领域广泛应用.本文从无人船系统的组成、应用领域和发展现状出发,归纳总结无人船的关键技术,并研究其发展趋势.作为一种水面机动载体,无人船关键技术包括特型平台设计技术、运动控制技术和通信技术3个方面,其核心是围绕任务内容、载荷原理、使用环境特点,以应用设计、功能开发为主体的系统集成和应用.现阶段无人船主要作为传统海上工作方法的补充,在遵守、参照现有各种法规、技术标准要求的前提下,搭载已成型的船用任务载荷,按照载人船舶的作业模式、施工惯例投入各种应用.未来随着材料技术、人工智能、通信技术的发展,以及相关政策、法规的建立、健全,无人船将逐步成为一种独立的技术手段,形成一系列新的作业模式和技术方法.     

本科导师制下测绘专业创新创业能力培养模式的探讨

深化高校创新创业教育改革是推进高等教育综合改革的突破口,是全面提升人才培养质量,增强学生创新创业能力的重要保障。借鉴国外高等院校的先进教育理念,我国高等教育引入了本科生导师制度,这是本科生创新能力培养的一种新教学模式,也是激发本科生创新创业热情的一种方式。本科生导师制度一直是国内教学改革的热点。因此,本文针对本科生导师制在创新创业教育中应用,详细阐述创新创业教育中本科生导师制的意义、作用和具体实施措施。     

地铁站点多时间维度客流影响因素的精细建模——以广州市中心城区为例

当前我国地铁规划建设进入了快速发展阶段,地铁站点客流影响因素的精细建模与分析对站点的规划、管理具有重要意义。该文基于地铁刷卡数据、高分辨率影像及网络爬虫获取的POIs数据、互联网房产数据和建筑物轮廓高度数据等多源空间数据,采用向后逐步回归分析法对广州市中心城区地铁站点多时间维度上客流的影响因素进行精细建模与分析。研究发现:1)整体上,地铁1号线早进晚出客流较其他线路大;站点早出晚进客流集聚效应显著,主要集中在以体育西路为中心的天河中心圈和以公园前为中心的老城区中心圈。2)在所构建的8种客流回归模型中,CBD虚拟变量、商业用地、三类居住用地、进出站口数量和站点吸引范围内平均小区容积率5种因素对站点客流具有显著正向影响,其中CBD虚拟变量影响最大,而房价、水体对客流具有显著负向影响。3)工作日和休息日客流影响因素存在明显差异,二类居住用地、教育科研用地和医疗卫生用地只在工作日客流中具有显著正向影响,用地多样性只在休息日客流中具有显著的负向影响。4)二类居住用地与工作日早进晚出客流关系密切;站点吸引范围内平均建筑层数只在工作日早出晚进客流回归模型中保留并起显著作用。     

泉州湾赤潮藻类优势种演替影响因子探讨

于2006年5—11月对东海泉州湾赤潮监控区设定4个采样站位,进行赤潮常规监测。结果表明,泉州湾藻类优势种由中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)、太平洋海链藻(Thalassiosira pacifica)、微小原甲藻(Prorocentrum minimum)、尖刺拟菱形藻(Pseudo-nitzschia pungens)、丹麦细柱藻(Leptocylindrus danicus)及旋链角毛藻(Chaetoceros curvisetus)等赤潮生物组成,虽然中肋骨条藻为最主要的优势种,但有3个站位出现了上述优势种的演替。通过深入分析该海域水质营养盐含量及组成结构的动态变化对赤潮藻类优势种演替的影响,发现由于不同的赤潮藻类种群具有各自的生态习性及适应环境的生长增殖策略,海域水质营养盐含量和组成结构的变化,会引起赤潮藻类种群增殖竞争力间强弱的相对变化,而种群增殖竞争力强的种类有可能迅速增殖取代原有的优势种而演替为新的优势种,这是一个动态的过程。