东山湾波浪对悬沙浓度场影响的数值模拟研究

研究了波致底切应力和二维辐射应力对悬沙的作用.首先对东山湾的水动力进行了数值模拟并与实测资料进行了对比检验,然后对东山湾悬浮泥沙进行了考虑波浪和不考虑波浪两种情况下的数值模拟并与实测资料进行了相关对比分析.在模式建立过程中,依据东山湾独特的窄口型半封闭河口海湾的特点,基于ECOMSED模式（2002）建立了东山湾三维水动力模型,并通过第三代海浪模式MASNUM加入了波浪对底切应力及辐射应力的影响,通过ECOMSED中的底边界层模型考虑了波浪增强底摩擦的作用,综合分析了东山湾的水动力及泥沙状况.结果表明在东山湾数值模拟中,该模式能较好地模拟这类海域的水动力及泥沙输运状况.在东山湾模拟计算中,潮流的作用强于波浪的作用,但考虑波浪因素后,泥沙模拟结果更好.在波浪的作用中,底切应力相比于二维辐射应力占有绝对的优势,两者相差2个量级以上,因此可以不考虑二维辐射应力的影响.     

Simulation and analysis on seasonal variability of average salinityin the Yellow Sea

The CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) data collected by six China-Korea joint cruises during 1996-1998 and the climatological data suggest that the seasonal variability of average salinity in the Yellow Sea (Sa) presents a general sinusoid pattern. To study the mechanism of the variability, annual cycles of Sa were simulated and a theoretical analysis based on the governing equations was reported.Three main factors are responsible for the variability: the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the Changji-ang (Yangtze) River diluted water (YRDW) and the evaporation minus precipitation (E-P). From December to the next May, the variability of Sa is mainly controlled by the salt transportation of the YSWC. But in early July, the YSWC is overtaken and replaced by the YRDW which then becomes the most important controller in summer. From late September to November, the E-P gradually took the lead. The mass exchange north of the 37癗 line is not significant.     

海洋动力环境要素数值预报关键技术

海洋数值预报系统是国家科学与技术综合能力的体现,运动耦合与资料同化是数值预报系统的两个关键问题,目前,我国在运动耦合领域处于国际前沿。当前已经具备了建立我国鲜明特色的海洋动力环境预报系统的理论和数值模式基础。日前在北京召开的首次全国海洋科技大会明确提出：进一步提高海洋环境与灾害的预警报服务能力,提高对海洋自然现象和变化规律的认知水平。这一要求必将推动我国海洋动力环境要素的预报能力建设。     

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。     

台湾浅滩阻塞作用的初步研究

位于台湾岛西南横跨海峡的台湾浅滩处的水深不足20m(图1),它对于平均水深50m的台湾海峡中的流动有明显的阻塞作用.为了了解台湾暖流在浅滩附近的变化,我们有必要对浅滩阻塞的动力学机制进行深入研究.     

南海海面温度与Ni(n)o/DMI指数年际变异的相关性分析

利用NCEP的Reynolds最优插值海面温度产品(1981年12月-2004年10月),对南海海表温度场的年际变化与热带太平洋El Ni(n)o指数(Ni(n)o1 2, Ni(n)o3.4, Ni(n)o5和Ni(n)o6指数)以及印度洋的偶极子指数(DMI)进行相关性分析.研究表明南海海面温度(SST)的变异与Ni(n)o1 2指数的变异相关性较强,南海海表温度场平均滞后Ni(n)o1 2指数4.77个月时,二者相关达到最大,平均为0.60; Ni(n)o3.4指数次之,南海海洋表层温度距平(SSTA)平均滞后Ni(n)o3.4指数6.67个月时,二者相关系数最大,平均为0.49.南海海表温度场对应的伴随形态进一步表明,南海随Ni(n)o1 2, Ni(n)o3.4指数出现正异常并有增暖现象,其中南海SST异常随Ni(n)o1 2指数变化的强度更大.并且几乎整个南海区域均超过95%的置信水平,当Ni(n)o1 2达到1个标准差(即异常增暖1.04 ℃),南海平均增暖幅度为0.16 ℃,越南东南外海和南海16°N以北区域SSTA增幅最大为0.20 ℃.表征西北太平洋海表温度场的Ni(n)o5和Ni(n)o6指数对ENSO现象的响应与南海表层温度场线性相关性不显著.研究还表明,南海海表温度场的年际变化与印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)的相关性不强,相关性仅体现在南海的卡里曼丹岛西南角的局部海域.     

Wave-induced mixing in the Yellow Sea

Vertical wave-induced mixing parameter Bv expressed in wave number spectrum was estimated in the Yellow Sea. The spatial distributions of By averaged over upper 20 m in 4 seasons were analyzed. It is the strongest in winter because of winter monsoon, and the weakest in spring. Since in summer it plays an important role for circulation of upper layers, its vertical structure was also discussed. Two simulations with and without wave-induced mixing in this season were performed to evaluate its effect on temperature distribution. Numerical results indicate that wave-induced mixing could increase the mixed layer thickness greatly.     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter derived wave period with ocean buoy data in the East China Sea and South China Sea

Altimeter wave period data obtained from continental shelf seas are analyzed in this paper. Empirical models are introduced for zero up-crossing and peak wave period calculation with TOPEX/POSEIDON data. Their performances are assessed using independent validation dataset in four sites in the open ocean of China. To provide more accurate wave period estimation, new coefficients are applied to reliable in situ data. Comparison of our estimated the wave periods with new linear calibrations based on independent data of Seapac 2100 deployed in the East China Sea and South China Sea showed that the accuracy was improved over estimates determined from earlier empirical models. Regional analysis indicated that the wave period model works better under wind sea condition.     

全球大洋环流诊断模式研究--流场及流函数

基于GFDL的MOM模式建立一个全球大洋环流的诊断模式(R0bust diagnostic model)来研究全球大洋环流.水平空间分辨率1°×1°.垂向分为21层.分别进行月平均和年平均模拟,积分的时间长度为11a.模式水流来自DBDB5(National Geodetic Center,Boulder,Colorado).所用的温度、盐度数据根据Levitus(1994)的资料,表面风应力根据Hellerman and Rosenstem(1983)的全球风场数据插值而来.从模拟结果看,全球大洋中的主要环流结构均得到体现.北太平洋副热带流圈得到合理的模拟,其最大的输运超过50 Sv.北赤道流在12.N附近分为南北两支.北支形成黑潮,而南支为棉兰老海流,在其东边,棉兰老冷涡得到很好的再现.在吕宋海峡有海水进入南海,在南海形成一个气旋式流圈,进而通过南海南部水道流入印度尼西亚海.模拟结果表明南极绕极流和黑潮可以深达底层.湾流则不能深达底层,其下方在1 000～2 000 m深度存在南向的深层流,显示了大西洋深层水的流动.     

沿海GPS业务观测在海底地震监测中的应用

以2011年日本Mw9.0级特大地震为例,对国家海洋局沿海GPS业务观测系统在海底地震监测中的应用进行了研究。采用自行研制的精密单点定位(Precise Point Positioning,PPP)软件,基于静态和动态模式,先提取GPS站点的瞬时地表同震位移和震后形变,再反演得到了震源方位、站点上空大气水汽的动态变化等信息。研究分析日本强震对沿海GPS站址的影响以及该系统对日本强震响应的灵敏性,揭示沿海GPS观测系统在海底地震监测及海啸预警中的作用,据此拓展了该系统的应用,为沿海GPS业务观测系统的运行、维护和业务拓展提供了科学依据。