近百年广州汛期降水变化特征及其影响因子

利用1908～2000年广州市逐月降水资料、Hadisst海温资料和NCEP再分析资料,讨论了广州前汛期(4～6月)和后汛期(7～9月)降水的旱涝等级分布特征、长期变化趋势以及影响因子.结果表明,近百年来广州前汛期旱涝事件出现的连续性和间歇性比后汛期明显.前、后汛期降水分别经历4个偏湿时期、3个偏干时期和2个偏湿时期、2个偏干时期变化.前汛期年降水量呈上升趋势,后汛期年降水量呈下降趋势,但两者均没有达到0.1显著性检验标准,所以年降水量仍处在自然振动变化范围之内.机制分析表明,前期春季(3～5月)西太平洋暖池海温异常通过海气相互作用影响后期(4～6月)的大气环流,导致广州前汛期的降水异常.南海夏季风则通过与北半球500hPa位势高度场的遥相关来影响广州后汛期的降水异常.     

COMPARISON STUDY ON THE INTRASEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CIRCULATIONS AND PRECIPITATION MODULATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA–WESTERN PACIFIC DURING GUANGDONG FLOODING PERIOD

Based on tropical cyclone datasets from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA) reanalysis data and the rainfall records from 743 stations in China, the impacts of cyclogenesis number over the South China Sea and the western Pacific are studied on the 30-60-day oscillations in the precipitation of Guangdong during the flooding period. The year with more-than-normal (less-than-normal) tropical cyclogenesis is defined as a ‘high year’ (‘low year’). In light of the irregular periodic oscillations, the method used to construct the composite life cycle is based on nine consecutive phases in each of the cycles. Phases 1, 3, 5, and 7 correspond to, respectively, the time when precipitation anomalies reach the minimum, a positive transition (negative-turning-to-positive) phase, the maximum, and a negative transition phase. The results showed that the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations is associated with the interaction between a well-organized eastward propagation system from the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal and a westward-propagating system (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northwest-southeast direction) from the South China Sea to western Pacific during the high years, whereas the precipitation is affected during a low year by the circulation over the South China Sea and western Pacific (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northeast-southwest direction). During the high year, the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the west and south are transported to Guangdong by westerly anomalies and an enclosed latitudinal cell, which ascends in the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes and descends in the Southern Hemisphere low latitudes. During the low year, the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the south is transported to Guangdong by southwesterly wind anomalies and local ascending movements. Because the kinetic energy, westerly, easterly shift, vertical velocity and vapor transportation averaged over (109–119° E, 10–20° N) is stronger in high years than those in low years, the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations in Guangdong is higher in high years than that in low years.     

2007 年南海夏季风季节内振荡的北传及影响因子

利用2007年全球降水气候计划GPCP(the Global Precipitation Climatology Project)卫星红外窗口导出的全球降水指数GPI(the Global Precipitation Index)的日降水资料及频率-波数分析方法,分析2007年南海夏季风季节内振荡(Intraseasonal Oscillation,ISO)的传播特征,并使用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)/美国大气研究中心(NCAR)再分析的逐日资料,探讨影响其传播的主要因子.结果表明,南海夏季风ISO有明显的北传趋势,并且明显比南传分量占优.影响南海夏季风ISO北传的主要因子是平均纬向风垂直切变和平均经向风对异常水汽的输送.之所以异常经向风对平均水汽的输送及海-气相可作用的影响在南海地区不重要,而在印度季风区有一定的贡献,是因为平均水汽和纬向风分布在两个地区的差异.     

热带西北太平洋10~30 d振荡对南海夏季风影响

采用1958—2011年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及ERSST海温资料,分析热带西太平洋夏季对流10~30 d振荡对南海夏季风的影响。在年际变化尺度上,热带西北太平洋夏季10~30 d振荡强度指数 (TWPI) 与南海夏季风强度有很好的正相关关系。在TWPI增强年份,海温主要呈El Ni?o分布,南海周边区域增强的异常西风产生强的正涡度切变,导致异常气旋性环流,为季风槽的增强提供了热量和水汽,从而增强南海夏季风强度。反之,在TWPI减弱年份,海温主要呈La Ni?a分布,南海夏季风强度减弱。在不同的年代际背景下,垂直切变和水汽-对流的总体变化是影响TWPI总体变化的重要因子,但不能影响南海夏季风强度的总体变化。海陆热力对比的总体变化是导致南海夏季风强度总体变化的主要影响因素。     

大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用

大气季节内振荡(ISO)在天气气候演变中扮演着重要角色,是中期和延伸期预报可预报性来源之一,同时大气ISO的年际变化与区域季节降水量的年际变化密切联系,对短期气候预测有指示意义。对热带大气ISO的年际变化研究做了简要回顾;重点介绍了ISO对华南降水的影响及其业务应用情况,主要包括赤道MJO对华南降水的影响、基于准两周振荡的汛期暴雨过程预报、热带ISO与热带外系统多尺度相互作用对强降水的影响、ISO对季节降水的影响、基于ISO建立的降水延伸期定量预测模型;最后对进一步加强ISO应用研究提出了几点思考。     

亚澳季风区水汽输送季节转换特征

利用NCEP／NCAR 1957～2001年45年逐日的再分析资料，从地面开始积分计算整层的水汽输送通量，从气候平均的角度分析了亚澳季风区大尺度水汽输送的季节转换演变特征。分析发现，亚澳季风区水汽输送由冬季向夏季的季节转换的基本特征是：夏季大值输送带的建立及其自西向东伸展，伴随着斯里兰卡低涡活动、自南向北的越赤道输送和副高的东撤、南海夏季风建立等一系列天气气候事件；而冬季形势的建立则是副高南侧东风输送带的西伸，伴随夏季大值输送带的断裂、西撤，最后形成亚洲低纬东风输送带，进而形成由北向南的越赤道输送以及澳大利亚和南印度洋夏季风水汽输送。伴随着冬、夏季节转换，中南半岛以西和以东地区的西风水汽输送的经向移动表现出完全不一样的特征，表明印度季风和东亚-西太平洋季风的形成机制有很大不同。     

热带海气相互作用对大气BSISO年际振荡的影响

利用卫星观测OLR资料以及海气耦合数值模拟试验结果,从每年波-频分析结果提取了各种传播模态的强度指数序列,分析了热带北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态的年际变化谱特征,探讨了热带各海区海气相互作用对其影响。主要结果如下:赤道外西传波和印度洋北传波以准2 a为显著振荡周期,赤道东传波、南海北传波和西太平洋北传波则都包含准2 a和准5 a两种周期,南海北传波是5种指数中惟一以准5 a为最主要周期振荡的模态。热带印度洋、西太平洋、东太平洋各海区海气相互作用对各指数准2 a振荡、准5 a振荡既有加强作用,也有削弱作用。各海区比较而言,对赤道东传波准2 a和准5 a振荡、南海北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是西太平洋海区海气相互作用;对赤道外西传波准2 a振荡、西太平洋北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是印度洋海区海气相互作用。     

DIFFERENCES OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON DERIVED BY NCEP AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATA

1 INTRODUCTIONDue to long-term time series and many elements,reanalysis data of National Centers for EnvironmentalPrediction (NCEP) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are widely usedin present climate studies. Even so, there arediscrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis.Some climate fields may be better reproduced byNCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand,ECMWFmay describe some climate characteristics morerealistically than NCEP. Xu et al.…     

CHARACTERISTICS OF FREQUENCY SPECTRUM VARIATION OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF CONVECTION DURING SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON

Datasets of equivalent temperature of black body (TBB) and sea surface temperature (SST) ranging from 1980 to 1997 are used to diagnose and analyze the characteristics of frequency spectrum and strength of intraseasonal variation of convection. The relationship between the strength of intraseasonal oscillation of convection, strength of convection itself and SST in the South China Sea (SCS) is studied. It is shown that, there are distinguishable annual, interannual and interdecadal variations in both strength and frequency spectrum of intraseasonal variation of convection in SCS. There are connections between strength of convection, strength of ISO1 in the summer half (s.h.) year and SST in ensuing winter half (w.h.) year in SCS. The strong (weak) convection and strong (weak) ISO1 are associated with negative (positive) bias of SST in ensuing w.h. year in SCS.     

热带季节内振荡对广东6月降水的影响

利用1979—2008年共30年广东省86个测站的地面观测逐日降水资料和NCEP-DOE第二套分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料,分析热带大气沿赤道东传的季节内振荡（MJO）对广东6月降水的影响及其物理过程。结果表明:6月MJO活动对广东降水的调制作用与前汛期（4—6月）期间其它月份不同,对6月广东省降水正（负）异常有指示意义的是强MJO事件的第3（第６）位相。当赤道MJO处于第3位相时,西太平洋副热带高压明显加强西伸,来源于西太平洋地区的水汽随副高边缘向广东输送明显加强,广东水汽通量明显增加,从而导致广东降水加强。而第６位相的情况基本相反。强MJO第3位相造成西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西的物理机制与大气对东印度洋非对称热源的响应有关。2010年6月广东两次持续性强降水过程与MJO强度较强且处于第3位相这种活动状态密切相关,进一步证明赤道MJO活动对广东6月强降水的重要指示作用。该结果有助于拓展广东强降水的预报思路,结合动力模式产品将有助于延长预报时效。