东海初级生产力遥感反演及其时空演化机制

According to calculation results of ocean chlorophyll concentration based on SeaWiFS data by SeaBAM model and synchronous ship-measured data, this research set up an improved model for Case I and Case Ⅱ water bodies respectively. The monthly chlorophyll distribution in the East China Sea in 1998 was obtained from this improved model on calculation results of SeaBAM. The euphotic depth distribution in 1998 in the East China Sea is calculated by using remote sensing data of K490 from SeaWiFS according to the relation between the euphotic depth and the oceanic diffuse attenuation coefficient. With data of ocean chlorophyll concentration, euphotic depth, ocean surface photosynthetic available radiation (PAR), daily photoperiod and optimal rate of daily carbon fixation within a water column, the monthly and annual primary productivity spatio-temporal distributions in the East China Sea in 1998 were obtained based on VGPM model. Based on analysis of those distributions, the conclusion can be drawn that there is a clear bimodality character of primary productivity in the monthly distribution in the East China Sea. In detail, the monthly distribution of primary productivity stays the lowest level in winter and rises rapidly to the peak in spring. It gets down a little in summer, and gets up a little in autumn. The daily average of primary productivity in the whole East China Sea is 560.03 mg/m^2/d, which is far higher than the average of subtropical ocean areas. The annual average of primary productivity is 236.95 g/m^2/a. The research on the seasonal variety mechanism of primary productivity shows that several factors that affect the spatio-temporal distribution may include the chlorophyll concentration distribution, temperature condition, the Yangtze River diluted water variety, the euphotic depth, ocean current variety, etc. But the main influencing factors may be different in each local sea area.     

1950–2011年黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征(英文)

This paper examines the changes in the time series of water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River into the Bohai Sea. To determine the characteristics of abrupt changes and multi-scale periods of water discharge and sediment load, data from Lijin station were analyzed, and the resonance periods were then calculated. The Mann-Kendall test, order clustering, power-spectrum, and wavelet analysis were used to observe water discharge and sediment load into the sea over the last 62 years. The most significant abrupt change in water discharge into the sea occurred in 1985, and an abrupt change in sediment load happened in the same year. Significant decreases of 64.6% and 73.8% were observed in water discharge and sediment load, respectively, before 1985. More significant abrupt changes in water discharge and sediment load were observed in 1968 and 1996. The characteristics of water discharge and sediment load into the Bohai Sea show periodic oscillation at inter-annual and decadal scales. The main periods of water discharge are 9.14 years and 3.05 years, whereas the main periods of sediment load are 10.67 years, 4.27 years, and 2.78 years. The significant resonance periods between water discharge and sediment load are observed at the following temporal scales: 2.86 years, 4.44 years, and 13.33 years. Water discharge and sediment load started to decrease after 1970 and has decreased significantly since 1985 for several reasons. Firstly, the precipitation of the Yellow River drainage area has reduced since 1970. Secondly, large-scale human activities, such as the building of reservoirs and floodgates, have increased. Thirdly, water and soil conservation have taken effect since 1985.     

基于寿命分布的机电设备预防性维修研究

机电设备事后性维修方式给产品的维修成本和维修工时带来了很大的浪费,而不科学的“定时” 预防性维修不但不能较有效地解决问题,反而可能给产品带来新的维修,确定合理的预防性维修周期可以有效降低维修资源成本。针对机电设备的特点,基于工程应用较广的威布尔寿命分布和贝叶斯条件概率开展分析,对预防性维修影响因素进行全面研究,鉴别出适合开展预防性维修的对象,确定出预防性维修周期方法和预防性检测维修周期模型。研究表明,应用寿命统计特性数据确定的 2 种分别基于失效率和可靠度的预防维修周期模型可以有效指导开展预防维修,降低维修资源成本,为预防性维修提供科学的方法。所做研究对于帮助工程人员开展预防性维修具有一定的指导意义。     

黄河入海泥沙悬移输送机制的控制试验

以三维斜压动力—悬沙模型ECOMSED联合第三代海浪模型SWAN及Grant-Madsen浪流耦合底边界层模型,对黄河入海泥沙悬移扩散的时空变化过程进行了数值模拟。通过5项控制试验,初步揭示了不同动力因子对黄河入海泥沙悬移输送的贡献和影响。研究结果表明,单纯潮流作用下黄河入海悬沙不能形成长距离输送。风海流作用下,绝大部分悬沙直接沉降在黄河三角洲的附近,只有非常小的部分发生长距离输送。风场作用下,黄河入海悬沙主要向北－西北方向输送,部分输往莱州湾的悬沙继续向北输送。环流作用下,悬沙输送具有明显的三维结构,分层结构与环流结构基本一致,而深度平均的悬沙输送通量与环流结构有较大的差别。浪流联合作用下的悬沙浓度变化与底剪切应力都呈现为10天左右的变化周期,表明其变化主要是由风应力所控制。     

1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势

验潮站资料的低空间分辨率与卫星数据的短时序是区域海平面变化研究存在的关键难题。本文结合卫星高度计海平面高度距平资料及验潮站数据,基于EOF和最小二乘法重建过去53 年（1959-2011 年）珠江三角洲海平面变化时空序列,并利用主成分分析方法建立区域统一海平面变化时间序列。结果显示,基于EOF和最小二乘法的海平面高度场重建方法能很好地解决卫星高度计资料时间序列不长和验潮站分布稀缺时间不连续等问题,对于海平面变化研究,尤其是关于过去长期的变化过程及特征研究适用性良好。对统一海平面变化时间序列线性拟合显示,近53 年珠江三角洲区域海平面平均变化速率为4.08 mm/yr,且存在近期加速上升趋势。与单站研究相比,该方法较好地表达了区域海平面主要变化特征并剔除可能存在的噪音。径流及厄尔尼诺现象也对珠江三角洲海平面空间变化产生影响。     

大河三角洲河口海岸演化机理模型研究:(I)模式理论与进展

从水沙通量变化对大河三角洲河口海岸建造及地貌演化的影响机理角度,通过研究目前国际上普遍采用的统计模型、几何模型、沉积动力学模型,以及数值模拟模型四种方法在建立大河三角洲河口海岸演化机理模型研究中的各自特点和不足,提出了建立宏观尺度机理模型的初步设想,并对运用Lagrange余流建立海岸演化机理模型所涉及的余流场的尺度转换、总余流场的建立和表达、用长期余流场构建泥沙起动、输运和沉积条件模式以及一线模型与三维动力模式耦合等关键性问题,提出了初步解决方案     

1961-2010年三江源地区气温变化与突变分析(英文)

In this study, a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province (THRHR) was used to analyze the climate change. The temperature variation and abrupt change analysis were examined by using moving average, linear regression, Spline interpo-lation, Mann-Kendall test and so on. Some important conclusions were obtained from this research, which mainly contained four aspects as follows. (1) There were several cold and warm fluctuations for the annual and seasonal average temperature in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions, but the temperature in these regions all had an obviously rising trend at the statistical significance level, especially after 2001. The spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperature increased evidently after the 1990s, and the winter average temperature exhibited an obvious upward trend after entering the 21st century. Except the standard value of spring temperature, the annual and seasonal temperature standard value in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions increased gradually, and the upward trend for the standard value of winter average temperature indicated significantly. (2) The tendency rate of annual average temperature in the THRHR was 0.36℃10a?1, while the tendency rates in the Yellow River Headwater Region (YERHR), Lancangjiang River Headwater Region (LARHR) and Yangtze River Headwater Region (YARHR) were 0.37℃10a?1, 0.37℃10a?1 and 0.34℃10a?1 respectively. The temperature increased significantly in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County. The rising trends of temperature in winter and autumn were higher than the upward trends in spring and summer. (3) The abrupt changes of annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperature were found in the THRHR, LARHR and YARHR, and were detected for the summer and autumn average temperature in the YERHR. The abrupt changes of annual and summer average temperatures were mainly in the late 1990s, while the abrupt changes of autumn and winter average temperatures ap-peared primarily in the early 1990s and the early 21st century respectively. (4) With the global warming, the diversities of altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Tibetan Plateau were possibly the main reasons for the high increasing rate of temperature in the THRHR.     

析构造作用与冲绳海槽地貌演化的关系

冲绳海槽是一个构造上极其活跃的大陆坡边缘盆地,具有壮观的海底地貌形态。研究冲绳海槽地区构造作用与其地貌演化的关系,有助于我们进一步深入了解冲绳海槽本身的地质演变历史,其意义非常重要。本文系根据1980年以来对冲绳海槽多次地质、地球物理调查所获得的一系列成果,结合前人已有的一些资料撰写而成。笔者拟将对冲绳海槽地区路作用与地貌演化的关系作一初步探讨,不足之处,恭请惠正。     

对陕渑煤田太原组与山西组界线划分的新认识

通过对陕渑煤田太原组与山西组数条剖面的实测,数十个微量元素及粒度分析样品的测试,数百块化石标本的逐层采集,经过对其岩性岩相、煤层煤质及古生物特征的综合分析,笔者认为本区太原组与山西组的界线应置于第16层砂岩(铁质细砂岩)的顶界面较为合适。     

艾比湖最近20Ka的氧碳同位素记录与气候突变

本文根据新疆艾比湖ＺＫｏｏＢ孔中３０个氧碳同位素样品的测试数据，制作了艾比湖最近二万年来的氧碳同位素变化曲线，氧碳同位素记录的研究表明，最近二万年来艾比湖的δ＾１８Ｏ变化主要是受湖水的蒸发作用和淡化过程所控制，艾比湖的水体环境在最近二万年中至少经历了八次明显的波动变化，δ＾１８Ｏ变化所反映的环境演变过程与全球性气候变化基本一致。二万年来δ＾１３Ｃ值的波动主要受湖泊水体中ＴＤＩＣ变化以及湖泊水体与大