灰色马尔可夫理论在地震预测方面的研究

以陕南地区汶川地震余震资料数据为实例,提出灰色马尔可夫模型对地震进行预测.利用传统的GM(1,1)模型对数据进行拟合和初步预测,运用马尔可夫模型的状态区间和状态转移矩阵对初步预测值进行修正,并对下一组地震数据进行预测.结果表明,模型预测精度高,预测值与实际值接近,可以作为今后地震预报的辅助手段.     

Fault plane solutions in Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block and their dynamic implications

Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions for earthquakes from 1977 to 2004 showed that the stress fields are obviously different in northwestern Sichuan sub-block (NWSSB), western parts of Central Yunnan sub-block (CYSB) and eastern part of CYSB. The characteristics of the mean stress fields in these three regions are obtained by fitting to CMT solutions. The stress state in NWSSB is characterized by its sub-horizontal tensile principal axis of stress (T axis) in roughly N-S direction and west dipping compressive principal axis of stress (P axis); the one in western part of CYSB is characterized by its ENE dipping T axis and sub-horizontal medium prin-cipal axis of stress (B axis) in roughly N-S direction; the one in eastern part of CYSB is characterized by its sub-horizontal P axis in roughly NNW-SSE direction and sub-horizontal T axis in roughly WSW-ENE direction. Finite element method simulation clearly shows that the Indian Plate imposes great extrusion on Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block (SYRB) near Assam massif. The value of the simulated compressive principal stress decreases with the distance from Assam massif. The simulated directions of the T axes in SYRB form annular distribution encir-cling Assam. For a homogeneous elastic medium with free boundary conditions on the top and bottom surfaces as well as the displacement boundary conditions derived from the GPS observations on the lateral boundaries, the computation results are consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions in NWSSB and western part of CYSB, while inconsistent with the Harvard CMT solutions in eastern part of CYSB. The inconsistency in eastern part of CYSB can be reduced when it includes inhomogeneous elastic media. The stress states in NWSSB and western part of CYSB revealed by the Harvard CMT solutions are not local, which are mainly controlled by the boundary force on the whole region. On the other hand, the stress state in eastern part of CYSB given by the Harvard CMT solutions is local, which may be affected by local topography, material inhomogeneity, and the drag force underneath.     

陀螺寻北仪快速定向划线装置的设计

随着科学技术发展,高精度电子罗盘、陀螺寻北仪等定向设备的小型化、实用化、便携化,也使之在地震台站仪器定向画线上的使用成为可能,在一些实际应用中也取得了较好效果。但由于陀螺寻北仪定向画线方法仍然比较原始,就导致了在实际应用中出现定向效率不高等问题。通过设计辅助装置,优化陀螺寻北仪的定向画线方法,可以大大提高陀螺寻北仪的定向画线效率。     

帘文蛤精子超微结构及与其他双壳贝类的比较

利用扫描电镜和透射电镜技术,详细观察了帘文蛤（Meretrix lyrata）精子的形态和超微结构.研究发现,帘文蛤的精子为典型的原生型,全长42.2±1.8μm,包括头部、中段和尾部三部分.头部为稍弯曲的狭茧形,长约2.4μm,由前端的顶体和其后的细胞核组成,顶体呈倒＂V＂形,前端电子密度较小,后端电子密度较大;核内含有高度浓缩的染色质,可见染色较浅的核泡存在,无核前窝,有明显核后窝和植入窝.中段由5个呈辐射状排列的线粒体和中央的2个相互垂直的中心粒复合体构成,线粒体近球形,由内、外两层膜组成.尾部鞭毛长39.3±1.9μm,由波浪状质膜和包裹其中的轴丝组成.另外,将帘蛤科（Veneridae）尤其是文蛤属（Meretrix）贝类精子超微结构与其他贝类进行了比较和分析,为文蛤属的种类鉴别提供细胞学依据.     

以法律的名义——中国矿政管理法制建设回眸(上)

八年磨一剑 矗立在北京西四的中国地质博物馆堪称当代建筑的杰作,它以堂皇、典雅的风格吸引着过往行人的目光,更以丰富的馆藏成为全球地质科学工作者的精神圣殿.然而,42年前,即文革开始那年,它却一度成为红卫兵的大本营,从外地来京串联的红卫兵纷纷在此安营扎寨,院内院外贴满五花八门的声明、勒令、抗议信……