Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project improved understanding and interpreting changes in high-flow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information, complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was also performed.     

Long-term variability of occurrence of precipitation forms in winter in Kraków, Poland

The paper discusses long-term change in snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation viewed in conjunction with air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter (December–February). In the study of contemporary climate change and its effect on the hydrological cycle it is useful to focus on winter precipitation forms. A 146-year secular observation series from Kraków, spanning the period 1863–2008, was used to extract data on the number of days with precipitation and on precipitation amount broken down by form. Statistically significant trends were found in total and mixed precipitation, but not in snowfall and rainfall. The climate warming effect has contributed to a material decrease in the snowfall to total winter precipitation ratio during the second half of the 20th c. The highest impact of air temperature was found in the wintertime variation in number of days with snowfall while the NAO had a significant influence on the frequency and amount of both rainfall and snowfall.     

Global dynamics of the Gliese 876 planetary system

The Gliese 876 planetary system consists of two Jupiter-like planets having a nearly commensurate 2:1 orbital periods ratio. Because the semimajor axes of the planets are very small (of the order 0.1 au and 0.2 au, respectively), and the eccentricity of the inner companion is ≃0.3, the mutual perturbations are extremely large. However, many authors claim the long-term orbital stability of the system, at least over 500 Myr for initial conditions found by Rivera & Lissauer. Results of investigations of a migration of initially separated planets into the close 2:1 mean motion resonance lock from Lee & Peale also support the conclusion that the system should be stable for the lifetime of the parent star. Initial conditions of the system, found from non-linear N -body fits by Laughlin & Chambers and Rivera & Lissauer, to the radial velocity curve, formally allow for a variety of orbital configurations of the GJ 876 system, e.g. coplanar, with planetary inclinations in the range [≃30°, 90°], and with relative inclinations of orbital planes as high as 80°. Our work is devoted to the stability investigation of the systems originating from the fitted initial conditions. We study neighbourhoods of these initial states in the orbital parameter space. We found estimations of the 2:1 mean motion resonance width and dynamical limitations on the planetary masses. We also obtain a global representation of the domains of the orbital parameters space in which initial conditions leading to stable evolutions can be found. Our results can be useful in localization of the best, stable fits to the observational data. In our investigations we use the MEGNO technique (the Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits) invented by Cincotta & Simó. It allows us to distinguish efficiently and precisely between chaotic and regular behaviour of a planetary system.     

Integrated cave drip monitoring for epikarst recharge estimation in a dry Mediterranean area,Sif Cave,Israel

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. The objective of this study was to evaluate water percolation through epikarst by monitoring water flow into a cave and conducting artificial irrigation and tracer experiments, at Sif Cave in Wadi Sussi, Israel from 2005 through 2007. The research is based on continuous high‐resolution direct measurements of both rainfall and water percolation in the cave chamber collected by three large PVC sheets which integrate drips from three different areas (17, 46, and 52 m²). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas. The combined measured rainfall and cave data enables estimation of recharge into the epikarst and to better understand the relationship of rainfall‐recharge. Three distinct types of flow regimes were identified: (1) ‘Quick flow’ through preferential flow paths (large fractures and conduits); (2) ‘Intermediate flow’ through a secondary crack system; and (3) ‘Slow flow’ through the matrix. A threshold of ～100 mm of rain at the beginning of the rainy season is required to increase soil water content allowing later rainfall events to percolate deeper through the soil and to initiate dripping in the cave. During winter, as the soil water content rises, the lag time between a rain event and cave drip response decreases. Annual recharge (140–160 mm in different areas in the cave) measured represents 30–35% of annual rainfall (460 mm). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A method of characterizing the thermal relations in mountainous areas / the lower Beskid range in the Polish Carpathians as example

The method discussed in the present paper permits the determination in detail of the mesoclimatic conditions on the basis of standard data provided by a network of a measurement stations. The passage from the data available at certain points and obtained from meteorological stations to spatial conceptions leads along the determination of the relationships between the altitude, various forms of the relief, and the thermal indices of climate. Resulting from these data, the duration of the frostless period is a sensitive index in the scale of mesoclimate, besides all the other indices connected with the minimum air temperatures. The nomographs applied by the authors make it possible to construct detailed climatic maps, which — with the maps of other elements of the geographical environment — form a basis for the elaboration e.g. an agrocological map of habitats. Presented method of the evaluation of climate conditions can be applied to all mountain territories, in which a network of measurement stations enables the determination of the interdependencies between the chosen thermal parameters and the altitude, and the distinction of the impact of the convex and concave forms.     

Application of a relativistic accretion disc model to X-ray spectra of LMC X-1 and GRO J1655-40

We present a general relativistic accretion disc model and its application to the soft-state X-ray spectra of black hole binaries. The model assumes a flat, optically thick disc around a rotating Kerr black hole. The disc locally radiates away the dissipated energy as a blackbody. Special and general relativistic effects influencing photons emitted by the disc are taken into account. The emerging spectrum, as seen by a distant observer, is parametrized by the black hole mass and spin, the accretion rate, the disc inclination angle and the inner disc radius.
We fit the ASCA soft-state X-ray spectra of LMC X-1 and GRO J1655-40 by this model. We find that, having additional limits on the black hole mass and inclination angle from optical/UV observations, we can constrain the black hole spin from X-ray data. In LMC X-1 the constraint is weak, and we can only rule out the maximally rotating black hole. In GRO J1655-40 we can limit the spin much better, and we find 0.68 a 0.88 . Accretion discs in both sources are radiation-pressure dominated. We do not find Compton reflection features in the spectra of any of these objects.