An empirical model of decadal ENSO variability

This paper assesses potential predictability of decadal variations in the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics by constructing and performing simulations using an empirical nonlinear stochastic model of an ENSO index. The model employs decomposition of global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the modes that maximize the ratio of interdecadal-to-subdecadal SST variance to define low-frequency predictors called the canonical variates (CVs). When the whole available SST time series is so processed, the leading canonical variate (CV-1) is found to be well correlated with the area-averaged SST time series which exhibits a non-uniform warming trend, while the next two (CV-2 and CV-3) describe secular variability arguably associated with a combination of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals. The corresponding ENSO model that uses either all three (CVs 1–3) or only AMO/PDO-related (CVs 2 and 3) predictors captures well the observed autocorrelation function, probability density function, seasonal dependence of ENSO, and, most importantly, the observed interdecadal modulation of ENSO variance. The latter modulation, and its dependence on CVs, is shown to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of random decadal ENSO variations simulated by multivariate linear inverse models. Cross-validated hindcasts of ENSO variance suggest a potential useful skill at decadal lead times. These findings thus argue that decadal modulations of ENSO variability may be predictable subject to our ability to forecast AMO/PDO-type climate modes; the latter forecasts may need to be based on simulations of dynamical models, rather than on a purely statistical scheme as in the present paper.     

冻融作用下砂土颗粒形态变化规律研究

土壤中的石英颗粒的表面形态不仅是该沉积物物源区沉积环境、 搬运机制的信息载体, 同时也会直接影响到砂土的宏观物理特性, 对力学和实际工程有着重要的意义。借助显微与高精度图像处理技术, 采用长径比, 磨圆度两个量化指标, 对经过不同次数冻融作用的两组砂土颗粒进行观察。结果表明： 砂土颗粒在冻融循环过程中, 由于颗粒之间的相互作用, 磨圆度先增大后减小, 最后趋于稳定; 长径比先减小, 后增加, 最后趋于稳定。长径比与磨圆度的变化曲线共轭。     

Stellar Mass—Halo Mass Relation and Star Formation Efficiency in High-Mass Halos

We study relation between stellar mass and halo mass for high-mass halos using a sample of galaxy clusters with accurate measurements of stellar masses from optical and ifrared data and total masses from X-ray observations. We find that stellar mass of the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) scales as M_*,BCG ∝ M ₅₀₀ ^αBCG with the best fit slope of α_BCG ≈ 0.4 ± 0.1. We measure scatter of M_*,BCG at a fixed M₅₀₀ of ≈0.2 dex. We show that stellar mass-halo mass relations from abundance matching or halo modelling reported in recent studies underestimate masses of BCGs by a factor of ～2?4. We argue that this is because these studies used stellar mass functions (SMF) based on photometry that severely underestimates the outer surface brightness profiles of massive galaxies. We show that M_*?M relation derived using abundance matching with the recent SMF calibration by Bernardi et al. (2013) based on improved photometry is in a much better agreement with the relation we derive via direct calibration for observed clusters. The total stellar mass of galaxies correlates with total mass M₅₀₀ with the slope of ≈0.6 ± 0.1 and scatter of 0.1 dex. This indicates that efficiency with which baryons are converted into stars decreases with increasing cluster mass. The low scatter is due to large contribution of satellite galaxies: the stellar mass in satellite galaxies correlates with M₅₀₀ with scatter of ≈0.1 dex and best fit slope of α_sat ≈ 0.8 ± 0.1. We show that for a fixed choice of the initial mass function (IMF) total stellar fraction in clusters is only a factor of 3?5 lower than the peak stellar fraction reached in M ≈ 10¹²M_⊙ halos. The difference is only a factor of ～1.5?3 if the IMF becomes progressively more bottom heavy with increasing mass in early type galaxies, as indicated by recent observational analyses. This means that the overall efficiency of star formation in massive halos is only moderately suppressed compared to L_* galaxies and is considerably less suppressed than previously thought. The larger normalization and slope of the M_*?M relation derived in this study shows that feedback and associated suppression of star formation in massive halos should be weaker than assumed in most of the current semi-analytic models and simulations.     

RRab Variable T Men: The Period Variability and the Blazhko Effect

Astronomy Letters - In 2012–2014 we obtained 3296 CCD frames in the $$BVI_{c}$$ photometric system for the RR Lyrae star T Men with the 76-cm telescope of the South African Astronomical...     

Features of winter sedimentation processes in Curonian Bay of the Baltic Sea

The concentration distribution was studied for dissolved oxygen, phosphorus forms, and particulate matter in Curonian Bay of the Baltic Sea in poorly known consolidated ice cover conditions during the winter seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2013. The surface and near-bottom waters were sampled at 51 stations. The ice cover exerts no significant effect on the typical seasonal variation of all considered parameters in the basin. The concentrations of mineral and organic phosphorus in the bay appeared to be lower by factors of 2–4 compared to summer values. A two- to threefold decrease in the concentrations of organic phosphorus since 2010 to 2011 and then to 2013 was recorded in the bay, which resulted from a decrease in phosphorus production by phytoplankton. Despite water being isolated from air by ice, the absence of wave mixing, and the decrease in oxygen production owing to the seasonal winter decrease in the intensity photosynthetic processes, no oxygen deficiency was found in the basin. This is because oxygen supplied to the bay by river runoff and production by photosynthesis in the bay exceed the utilization for oxidation of organic matter resulting from low bioproductivity of the waters during winter. The winter decrease in the fraction of biogenic particulate matter is seen as a four- to sevenfold drop in its total concentration in the waters compared to summer seasons. The absence of wave roiling of bottom sediments also caused a decrease in the secondary supply of biogenic particulate matter from sediments into near-bottom waters. No negative trends of geoecological conditions in the bay were revealed by the studied parameters under consolidated ice cover conditions.     

Spectroscopic studies of southern-hemisphere Cepheids: XX Sgr,AP Sgr,RV Sco,RY Sco,V482 Sco,and V636 Sco

We present the results obtained by analyzing 20 spectra of six bright Cepheids taken with the 1.9-m telescope at the South African Astronomical Observatory. The chemical composition and atmospheric parameters have been determined for XX Sgr, AP Sgr, RV Sco, RY Sco, V482 Sco, and V636 Sco.     

Upper quaternary laminated sapropelic sediments from the continental slope of Baja California

Core MD02-2508 retrieved from the plateau of the continental slope off Baja California recovered a 40-m-thick section of sapropel (up to 15% C_org), calcareous clay, and diatom ooze with the age of 120 ka at the core bottom. The section is subdivided into three units: Unit I (Holocene) consists of the laminated sapropel; Unit II comprising oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 2, 3, and 4 is represented by homogeneous calcareous clay with interbeds of slightly siliceous sapropelic mud; and Unit III (MIS-5) is composed of laminated sapropelic diatom ooze. Laminated intervals are characterized by the intercalation of two lamina types: (1) dark-colored organic-rich laminae containing multi-species “oceanic” diatom assemblages, as well as radiolarians, coccoliths, planktonic and benthic foraminifera; (2) lighter-colored laminae consisting of diatom ooze with the neritic colonial diatom assemblages commonly composed of one to three species of a single genera. The dark laminae are assumed to be generated within a high productivity zone over the slope, whereas light ones likely represent diatom mats produced by short-term boisterous phytoplankton blooms, possibly in the coastal upwelling.     

Magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium conditions in the post-Newtonian approximation of general relativity

A set of equations, which are magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium conditions in the post-Newtonian approximation of general relativity (PNA of GR), is obtained. The given system generalizes the previously obtained magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium conditions of classical mechanics and the hydrodynamic equilibrium conditions in the PNA of GR.