Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Evaluating a modified point-based method to downscale cell-based climate variable data to high-resolution grids

To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets.     

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors.

Policy relevance

Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as ‘improved cooperation’ were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.     

Results from the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) – II. Stellar variability in the Pegasus field

Recent wide field photometric surveys, which target a specific field for long durations, are ideal for studying both long- and short-period stellar variability. Here, we report on 75 variable stars detected during the observations of a field in Pegasus using the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) instrument, 73 of which are new discoveries. The variables detected include 16 δ Scuti stars, 34 eclipsing binaries, 3 BY Draconis stars and 4 RR Lyraes. We estimate that the fraction of stars in the field brighter than   V ∼ 13.5  exhibiting variable behaviour with an amplitude greater than 0.6 per cent rms is ∼0.4 per cent. These results are compared with other wide field stellar variability surveys, and implications for detecting transits due to extra-solar planets are discussed.     

A source of high-velocity white dwarfs

We investigate whether the recently observed population of high-velocity white dwarfs can be derived from a population of binaries residing initially within the thin disc of the Galaxy. In particular, we consider binaries where the primary is sufficiently massive to explode as a Type II supernova. A large fraction of such binaries are broken up when the primary then explodes as a supernova, owing to the combined effects of the mass loss from the primary and the kick received by the neutron star on its formation. For binaries where the primary evolves to fill its Roche lobe, mass transfer from the primary leads to the onset of a common envelope phase during which the secondary and the core of the primary spiral together as the envelope is ejected. Such binaries are the progenitors of X-ray binaries if they are not broken up when the primary explodes. For those systems that are broken up, a large number of the secondaries receive kick velocities ∼100–200 km s⁻¹ and subsequently evolve into white dwarfs. We compute trajectories within the Galactic potential for this population of stars and relate the birth rate of these stars over the entire Galaxy to those seen locally with high velocities relative to the local standard of rest (LSR) . We show that for a reasonable set of assumptions concerning the Galactic supernova rate and the binary population, our model produces a local number density of high-velocity white dwarfs compatible with that inferred from observations. We therefore propose that a population of white dwarfs originating in the thin disc may make a significant contribution to the observed population of high-velocity white dwarfs.     

The lower crust beneath cratonic north-east Europe: isotopic constraints from garnet granulite xenoliths

Lower crustal garnet-bearing mafic granulite xenoliths from beneath the cratonic areas of NE Europe (NW Russia, Belarus, Finland) have unradiogenic ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios that differ strongly from those of xenoliths from beneath Phanerozoic regions of the European plate and worldwide, but closely resemble xenoliths from other cratonic regions of the world. Phanerozoic lower crustal xenoliths worldwide also show a very limited range of Pb isotope compositions whereas most cratonic lower crustal xenoliths have more varied but usually unradiogenic Pb isotope compositions, plotting to the left of the Geochron. However, many of the xenoliths from beneath NE Europe plot on the right-hand side of the Geochron and also have more radiogenic ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios. Thus, the lower crust of NE Europe shows characteristics of both cratonic lower crust (unradiogenic Nd isotopes) and Phanerozoic lower crust (radiogenic Pb isotopes). Its present-day low U/Pb and Th/Pb ratios indicate that it has been depleted in heat-producing elements, but the radiogenic Pb isotope ratios show that this depletion occurred relatively recently.     

Optimal modal beamforming of bandpass signals using an undersizedsparse vertical hydrophone array: theory and a shallow-water experiment

Conventional methods for modal beamforming of underwater acoustic signals using a vertical-line hydrophone array (VLA) can suffer significant degradation in resolution when the array is geometrically deficient, i.e., consists of sparsely spaced elements and spans the water column partially or is poorly navigated. Designed for estimating the coefficients of the normal modes, these conventional methods include the direct projection (DP) of the data on the calculated mode shapes and least-squares (LS) fitting of the mode sum to the data. The degradation, in the form of modal cross talk or sidelobes, is a result of an undersampling in depth. This cross talk may be mitigated with the application of proper space-time filter constraints in the case of a pulse transmission. In this paper, a generalized least-squares (GLS) mode beamformer, capable of incorporating physical space-time constraints on the propagation of sound, is presented. The formulation is based on the well-known theorem of Gauss and Markov. Initialized by a model prediction of the basic arrival structure of the normal modes and incorporating, iteratively, refined estimates of the statistics of the modal fluctuations, this GLS technique strives to boost the resolution of a geometrically deficient VLA. The improvement is demonstrated using the VLA data collected during a shallow-water tomography experiment in the Barents Sea. The superiority of the GLS method over the conventional DP and LS methods is evident, providing a high-quality time series of modal arrivals as a function of geophysical time, which, in turn, reveals the dominant time scales of the oceanic processes associated with the Barents Sea Polar Front