Eta model forecasts of tropical cyclones from Australian Monsoon Experiment: Dynamical adjustment of initial conditions

Summary The University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC) limited area Eta Model predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) tropical cyclonesConnie, Irma, Damien andJason. The initial positions and intensities of the tropical cyclone vortices from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, which are used as initial data, do not quite agree with the observations. These disagreements produce additional erros in predicting the tropical cyclone tracks.To improve the initial position of the vortex, the flow is split into the small and the large scale motions, and during the first two hours of the integration, the small-scale part is forced in small steps towards its observed position. The adjustment is performaed with the reduced model dynamics (adjustment processes only) and no physics.With the adjustment during the first two hours of the integration, the model successfully adjusts to the new position of the initial vortex. After the completion of the adjustment stage, the model runs normally, i.e., without any modification. The tracks of the 48-h forecasts with the adjusted initial vortices are parallel to the tracks obtained in the control forecasts without the adjustment. However, e.g., the mean absolute error of the positions during 48-h forecast of the tropical cycloneConnie was reduced from 174 km in the control case to 129 km in the case with adjustment of the position.The latent heat, the thermal energy, the kinetic energy and the total energy of the extracted small scale vortices are calculated every three hours of the integration time. These small-scale energies obtained in the 48-h control forecast are compared to those of the rund with the initial vortex adjustment to monitor the spin up of the model.With 7 Figures     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (VII)

The paper is devoted to the actual problematics in the determination of orbital and physical parameters of active CB on the basis of the interpretation of photometric observations. One solves the problem in two stages: by obtaining a synthetic light curve in the case when the parameters of the corresponding CB model (Djuraevi, 1992a) are given a priori (direct problem) and by determining the parameters of the given model for which the best fit between the synthetic light curve and the observations is achieved (inverse problem) (Djuraevi, 1992b). In this paper, the above procedure is applied to a particular case of an interpretation of CB light curves AU Ser and RV Corvi.     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (V)

The author considers the current problematics in the determination of the orbital and physical parameters for active close binaries (CB) of W Ser type based on the interpretation of photometric observations. In the particular case one analyses the light curves of CB RX Cas in the framework of the accretion-disc model explained in the second paper of this series (Djuraevi, 1992a). The change of the light curves with that of the system's physical-activity phase is analysed and the orbital and physical parameters of the system are determined for the maximum, minimum and the transition regime of the physical activity by applying the inverse-problem method described in the third paper of the series (Djuraevi, 1992b). In the paper a graphical illustration of the solutions obtained is also given.     

Tunneling and interference of Alfvén waves

The propagation and interference of Alfvén waves in magnetic regions is studied. A multilayer approximation of the standard models of the solar atmosphere is used. In each layer, there is a linear law of temperature variation and a power law of Alfvén velocity variation. The analytical solutions of a wave equation are stitched at the layer boundaries. The low-frequency Alfvén waves (P > 1 s) are able to transfer the energy from sunspots into the corona by tunneling only. The chromosphere is not a resonance filter for the Alfvén waves. The interference and resonance of Alfvén waves are found to be important to wave propagation through the magnetic coronal arches. The transmission coefficient of Alfvén waves into the corona increases sharply on the resonance frequences. To take into account the wave absorption in the corona, a method of equivalent schemes is developed. The heating of a coronal arch by Alfvén waves is discussed.     

Circumstellar dust and variability of carbon stars

A sample of 35 variable carbon stars has been considered. The stellar temperatures, radii, absolute luminosities, masses, and mass loss rates have been estimated. Then the spherical circumstellar dust shells around the analysed stars are discussed and the differences in the infrared properties between semi-regular, irregular, and long-period variables are indicated.     

Numerical case study of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis over East Asia

Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Petrology and geochemistry of orthoamphibolites from the Variscan metamorphic sequences of the South Tisia in Croatia – an overview with geodynamic implications

In the southern Pannonian Basin, the Variscan Barrovian- and overprinted Abukuma-type progressive metamorphic sequences of the South Tisia in Slavonian Mts. (SM) and Mt. Moslava)ka Gora (MG) are interlayered with orthoamphibolites. These sequences represent part of a disrupted Variscan belt that extends southeastwards of the Bohemian Massif through the Carpathians to the Caucasus. Orthoamphibolites contain hornblende (Mg-hornblende, tschermakite, pargasite, and edenite), plagioclase An_48-98 (MG) and An_26-35 (SM), biotite, grossular (MG) and almandine (SM) enriched garnet, diopside (MG), with accessory ilmenite, titanite, and clinozoisite. Based on major and trace element analyses and CIPW norms, these orthoamphibolites, which originally were olivine tholeiites to slightly alkalic basalts, can be correlated with tholeiites of consuming plate margins. '¹⁸O of orthoamphibolites varies from 5.8 to 7.1‰, the measured ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio from 0.70435 to 0.70665, which indicates slight continental crust contamination, and the calculated ratio from 0.70262 to 0.70535, indicating an upper mantle origin of the original basaltic melts. For associated penecontemporaneous I-type granitoids, the calculated initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio also have upper mantle values ranging between 0.70293 and 0.70368. Geochemical data for orthoamphibolites and the associated penecontemporaneous I-type granites, and the occurrence of alpine-type ultramafic bodies within the Barrovian sequence, indicate that they have many features in common with orogenic associations related to recent subduction-related settings. Some characteristic element ratios suggest back-arc basin environments and the Ce/K vs. Ce diagram suggests a pargasite-lherzolite source. Its partial melting gave primitive basaltic melts of olivine tholeiite to slight alkalic affinities that produced at first differentiated mafic rocks by olivine fractionation (future orthoamphibolites) and, afterwards, a strongly differentiated suite of I-type granitoids by amphibole fractionation. Magma emplacement and subsequent AFC processes took place in subduction environments preceding the main Variscan deformational metamorphic event during which orthoamphibolites were generated. This interpretation is compatible with geodynamic modeling of this part of the Paleotethys.     

A bilinear approximation of the surface relief in terrain correction computations

A new method is presented for the computation of the gravitational attraction of topographic masses when their height information is given on a regular grid. It is shown that the representation of the terrain relief by means of a bilinear surface not only offers a serious alternative to the polyhedra modeling, but also approaches even more smoothly the continuous reality. Inserting a bilinear approximation into the known scheme of deriving closed analytical expressions for the potential and its first-order derivatives for an arbitrarily shaped polyhedron leads to a one-dimensional integration with – apparently – no analytical solution. However, due to the high degree of smoothness of the integrand function, the numerical computation of this integral is very efficient. Numerical tests using synthetic data and a densely sampled digital terrain model in the Bavarian Alps prove that the new method is comparable to or even faster than a terrain modeling using polyhedra.     

Croatia — a coastal and maritime country

Croatia, through its geographic position, is a Mediterranean/Adriatic and Central European/Danube state. As an Adriatic coastal state, it has a long maritime tradition, which is apparent in its well-developed shipping (2.4 million GT), the high-quality ship-building industry (among the top six in the world) and through its numerous sea ports, of which many were established in ancient times. The leading national port is Rijeka, which is at the same time an important transit port for Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.The exceptionally indented Croatian Adriatic coast with its attractive archipelagos and favorable climatic and oceanographic conditions in the coastal sea offers very advantageous conditions for comprehensive tourist utilization. This is particularly true of nautical tourism, which is complimented by a larger number of constructed and well-equipped yachting ports/marinas on the coast and islands.