广东新会市人口,耕地,粮食问题及灰色模型预测

在我国改革开放政策实行较早的广东珠江三角洲地区，我们对地处西南部的新会市进行了为期两年的全面、典型抽样调查。发现全市的耕地面积和播种面积呈下降趋势，单产虽有较大幅度的增长但粮食总产量的增长缓慢，速度低于全市总人口的自然增长率，因此人均粮食产量呈下降趋势。根据建立的灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测，新会市２０１０年人均耕地面积只有０．０２５ｈｍ＾２，在“人均４分保命田”之下。因此，本文对该地区作出的粮食及     

Sediment accumulation of Dianchi Lake determined by 137Cs dating

The water quality of Dianchi Lake declines quickly and the eutrophication is getting serious. To identify the internal pollution load of Dianchi Lake it is necessary to evaluate its sediment accumulation. Sedimentation rates of Dianchi Lake are determined by ¹³⁷Cs dating. However, ¹³⁷Cs vertical distribution in sediment cores of Dianchi Lake has special characteristics because Dianchi Lake is located on the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Kunming quasi-stationary front is over the borders of Yunnan and Guizhou where the specific precipitation is distributed. Besides 1954, 1963 and 1986 ¹³⁷Cs marks can be determined in sediment cores, a ¹³⁷Cs mark of 1976 representing the major period of ¹³⁷Cs released from China unclear test can be determined and used for an auxiliary dating mark. Meanwhile Dianchi Lake is divided into seven sections based on the water depth, basin topography, hydrological features and supplies of silt and the lakebed area of each section is calculated. The mean annual sedimentation rates for seven sections are 0.0810, 0.1352, 0.1457, 0.1333, 0.0904, 0.1267 and 0.1023 g/cm²a in 1963–2003, respectively. The gross sediment accumulation of the lake is 26.18×10⁴ t/a in recent 17 years and 39.86×10⁴ t/a in recent 50 years. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40771186; The Key Project of the State Key Laboratory of Soil Sustainable Agriculture, Nanjing Institute of Soil Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.5022505 Author: Zhang Yan (1962–), Ph.D and Associate Professor, specialized in environmental change.     

飓风中的涡旋罗斯贝波

文中从柱坐标系下的正压无辐散涡度方程出发,用WKBJ方法求解方程,发现在飓风中存在类似于行星罗斯贝波的涡旋罗斯贝波,这种波的形成主要是由于飓风中基态涡度垂直分量的径向梯度所决定。利用一次飓风过程的精确数值模拟所输出高分辨的资料,计算了飓风中径向涡度梯度的分布,指出这类波动主要存在于眼墙和眼心中。波动结构分析表明,波动能量具有径向频散,这有可能是飓风暖心结构的一种形成机制。最后用波射线法讨论了定常涡旋罗斯贝波的径向频散     

丹东绿玉石的宝玉石学特征研究

通过偏光显微镜、电子探针、X射线粉末衍射、傅里叶变换红外光谱、X射线荧光光谱、微量元素测试等对丹东绿玉石样品进行了常规矿物学、谱学特征研究。结果表明,丹东绿玉石是以蛇纹石为主要矿物,镁橄榄石、白云石、水镁石、绿泥石、伊利石为次要矿物的蛇纹石化镁橄榄石矽卡岩。     

Late Devonian OIB alkaline gabbro in the Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone: Remnants of the Paleo-Tethys?

The Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone (YZSZ) is believed to be composed of material largely derived from the destruction of the Neo-Tethys that occurred from early Mesozoic to early Cenozoic. We report here geochronological and petrological data obtained for newly discovered alkaline gabbro blocks embedded in a mélange zone of the western YZSZ. Single zircon U–Pb analyses from one representative gabbro sample by SIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) yielded a combined crystallization age of about 363.7 ± 1.7 Ma (1σ). In situ Hf isotopic analyses yielded ε_Hf(t) values of + 2.6 to + 5.5, suggesting an enriched mantle source. All of the gabbro samples show typical Ocean Island Basalt (OIB) affinity with little or no continental crust contamination. They also display strong geochemical similarities with the Hawaii basalts and the Xigaze seamount basalts suggestive of their intra-oceanic setting. These observations, in combination with the Early Carboniferous layered gabbros reported at Luobusa, indicate that these rocks could represent remnants of the Paleo-Tethys. We propose that a branch ocean separating the Western Qiangtang terrane and the Lhasa terrane from the Gondwana continent might have been present during the Late Devonian and the Early Carboniferous, providing new constrains on the configuration of Paleo-Tethys in Tibetan Plateau during early Late Paleozoic.     

Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam

In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability. In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors, are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally, the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam safety management.     

中国东部土壤温度、湿度变化的长期趋势及其与气候背景的联系

利用1971—2000年中国722站逐月的土壤温度资料和1981—1998年178站逐旬的土壤湿度观测资料,分析了中国东部土壤温度、湿度变化的长期趋势及其与气温、降水变化的关系。结果表明：①我国东部土壤温度的变化在年际—年代际时间尺度上存在明显的区域性差异,其中东北地区表现为持续上升型,而西北东部—华北、江淮和西南—华南地区均为先降后升型;②1970—2000年代,土壤温度的变化在东北以及西北东部—华北地区有显著的上升趋势,而在江淮和西南—华南地区,总体而言变化趋势不显著。此外,1980—1990年代,各区域土壤湿度的变化趋势均不显著;③在年际—年代际尺度上,各区域土壤温度和气温的变化具有显著的正相关关系,而土壤湿度与土壤温度的变化普遍呈负相关关系,其中尤以西北东部—华北地区最为显著。而在较长的时间尺度上,土壤湿度与降水的变化仍然存在较好的正相关关系。     

地下水流模型识别的分步解法

地下水流模型识别问题是综合的水文地质分析与计算过程,但常常被片面理解为反求水文地质参数问题,这种片面的认识大大妨碍了对水文地质条件的认识及对水文地质过程的理解,并由此导致一些不应有的错误结论。简要论述了地下水流模型识别的概念及问题类型,利用模型分解的方法指出地下水流模型的识别可分2步完成:一是利用附加水头场(或附加降深场)求参数;二是利用初始水头场确定边界条件及源汇项。除参数外,源汇项、初始条件、边界条件也是地下水流模型识别的重要内容。     

2010年7月19日新乡大暴雨天气分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星云图资料、雷达回波和NCEP全球最终分析资料(FNL),对2010年7月19日新乡区域性大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析.结果表明:在西南涡与副高相互作用的天气形势下,中低层切变线等影响系统造成了这次区域性大暴雨;对流层中低层副高外围强盛的西南急流将海上充沛的水汽输送到大暴雨区并在此汇集,造成新乡地区上空...