贵州一次严重冰冻雨雪过程环境场分析

2008年1月10日至2月2日,我国南方发生了大范围的持续冰雪灾害,贵州是受灾最严重的省份之一。通过对高度场、温度、降水量、流场、涡度等要素场的分析,重点探讨此次极端气象事件对贵州影响最明显的第3次过程,以及形成严重冰冻雨雪天气和温度异常偏低的主要环流特征。结果表明,在强拉尼娜的背景下,稳定在乌拉尔山以东的阻塞高压持续存在、极涡异常偏强偏东、西太平洋副高偏西偏强、南支槽较常年活跃等,是造成这次过程的主要原因。主要特征是850 hPa以下出现温度低于0℃的冷空气层,在700 hPa附近是相对较暖的气层,其上层是较冷的冰晶层,西南低空急流及槽前正的相对涡度平流明显,急流带来的暖湿平流提供了充足的水汽,并保证了融化层中源源不断的热量供应,上下层涡度平流的差异有利于上升运动的发展,为贵州第3次雨雪过程的发生提供了条件。     

Development of an urban landslide cellular automata model: a case study of North Vancouver, Canada

Many GIS-based landslide models require detailed datasets that are ideally collected from field measurements, which can incur high costs for carrying out surveys. Even when the data is on hand, implementing physics-based slope stability techniques can be difficult. Common research practice uses differential equations to characterize the dynamic flow of a landslide, but it is often laborious without making substantial simplifications. A possible solution is to implement a cellular automata modeling approach, which represents both spatial and temporal components, to simulate the dynamics of the landslide propagation process. In this study, a simplified cellular automata model is developed for the effective prediction of landslide runouts, where the data requirement is a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Parameters, such as slope and slope curvature features, are derived from the DEM and coupled with logistic regression. The developed model is implemented on the Patrick and Dawson-Chu Slide in North Vancouver, Canada. The results from this study site were favorable, given almost 90% agreement between simulated landslides and data obtained for real landslides. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed on the initiation sites to test the model logic and outputs of the landslide flow.     

Seismic input at the archaeological site of Kancheepuram in Southern India

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at Kancheepuram in Southern India was carried out with the scope of defining the seismic input for the vulnerability assessment of historical and monumental structures at the site, in terms of horizontal Uniform Hazard Spectra and a suite of spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms to perform time-history analysis. The standard Cornell?CMcGuire and a zone-free approach have been used for hazard computations after the compilation of a composite earthquake catalogue for Kancheepuram. Epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard was addressed within a logic-tree framework. Deaggregation of the seismic hazard for the peak ground acceleration shows low seismicity at Kancheepuram controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources located at short distances from the archaeological site. Suites of natural accelerograms recorded on rock have been selected by imposing a custom-defined compatibility criterion with the probabilistic spectra. The site of Kancheepuram is characterized by a seismicity controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources at short distances from the site, the PGA expected for 475- and 2,475-year return period are, respectively, 0.075 and 0.132?g. The Indian code-defined spectra (DBE and MCE) tend to underestimate spectral ordinates at low periods. On the other hand, the PGA are comparable and the spectral ordinates for longer periods from the probabilistic study are significantly lower.     

井中地震CT观测系统研究

井中地震CT具有高精度、高分辨率、接近探测目标等优点,在各类工程中得到较多应用。在震源确定情况下,地震数据的质量主要取决于观测系统的合理设计。本文通过理论模型正演得到相应的观测数据并进行CT成像反演,阐述了观测系统中射线角度、射线密度等因素对CT成像结果的影响。将研究成果应用于工程实际,取得满意效果。     

Effects of the normal operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir on wetland inundation in Dongting Lake,China: a modelling study

Abstract

The operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is an important driver of the recent hydrological changes in the lowlands of Dongting Lake, China. Nevertheless, there has been no convincing study on the quantitative effects of the TGR regulation on the wetland inundation process. Here, the temporal and spatial patterns of the response of wetland inundation in Dongting Lake to the TGR regulation are addressed in detail using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, which can accurately reproduce the flooding and drying processes. The results show that temporal patterns of wetland inundation are altered by the TGR regulation, especially in the water pre-releasing period (May to early June) and the water storing period (late September to November). Spatially heterogeneous effects are also observed in Dongting Lake. These findings can help us to take measures at an early stage to effectively deal with the possible adverse effects of the normal operation of the TGR on Dongting Lake.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Porporato

Citation Lai, X., Jiang, J., and Huang, Q., 2013. Effects of the normal operation of Three Gorges Reservoir on wetland inundation in Dongting Lake, China: a modelling study. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1467–1477.     

Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis

Abstract

Statistical tests have been widely used for several decades to identify and test the significance of trends in runoff and other hydrological data. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test is commonly used in trend analysis. The M-K test was originally proposed for random data. Several variations of the M-K test, as well as pre-processing of data for use with it, have been developed and used. The M-K test under the scaling hypothesis has been developed recently. The basic objective of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the trends in Malaysian monthly runoff data. Identification of trends in runoff data is useful for planning water resources projects. Existence of statistically significant trends would also lead to identification of possible effects of climate change. Monthly runoff data for Malaysian rivers from the past three decades are analysed, in both five-year segments and entire data sequences. The five-year segments are analysed to investigate the variability in trends from one segment to another in three steps: (1) the M-K tests are conducted under random and correlation assumptions; (2) the Hurst scaling parameter is estimated and tested for significance; and (3) the M-K test under the scaling hypothesis is conducted. Thus the tests cover both correlation and scaling. The results show that the number of significant segments in Malaysian runoff data would be the same as those found under the assumption that the river flow sequences are random. The results are also the same for entire sequences. Thus, monthly Malaysian runoff data do not have statistically significant trends. Hence there are no indications of climate change in Malaysian runoff data.

Citation Rao, A. R., Azli, M. & Pae, L. J. (2011) Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 917–929.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Italy using kernel estimation methods

A representation of seismic hazard is proposed for Italy based on the zone-free approach developed by Woo (BSSA 86(2):353–362, 1996a), which is based on a kernel estimation method governed by concepts of fractal geometry and self-organized seismicity, not requiring the definition of seismogenic zoning. The purpose is to assess the influence of seismogenic zoning on the results obtained for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Italy using the standard Cornell’s method. The hazard has been estimated for outcropping rock site conditions in terms of maps and uniform hazard spectra for a selected site, with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Both spectral acceleration and spectral displacement have been considered as ground motion parameters. Differences in the results of PSHA between the two methods are compared and discussed. The analysis shows that, in areas such as Italy, characterized by a reliable earthquake catalog and in which faults are generally not easily identifiable, a zone-free approach can be considered a valuable tool to address epistemic uncertainty within a logic tree framework.     

High Angular Resolution Study of the Ion and Neutral Spectra as a Probe of the Magnetic Field Structure

We present the observations and analysis of the spectral linewidths of neutral and ion species across the DR21(OH) core to investigate the cyclotron interaction as a probe of magnetic fields. It has been suggested that under average interstellar field strengths the cyclotron interaction between ions and magnetic fields is strong enough to narrow the linewidth and suppress the line wings in the ion spectra. We have obtained high spatial resolution spectral line images of H¹³CN and H¹³CO⁺ at 3 mm in DR21(OH) with the Millimeter Array of the Owens Valley Radio Observatory. Our results show that in the eastern parts of the DR21(OH) core the spectral linewidth of the ions is narrower than that of the neutrals. We use our results, along with the existing Zeeman and dust/CO polarization data on small scales, to derive the 3D magnetic field structure. We obtain a field strength of 0.44 ± 0.12 mG with inclination of 36° to the line of sight, directed toward the observer, and a position angle of ?75° in the plane of the sky.     

Ultrasonic measurement of suspended sediment concentrations: an experimental validation of the approach using kaolin suspensions and reservoir sediments under variable thermal conditions

Multiphase suspension systems are used extensively in hydrology, biochemistry, and the food industry. Ultrasonic spectroscopy is a rapid, on‐line, non‐invasive measurement technique for suspension characterization over different particle sizes and a wide range of concentration. Although the properties of kaolin suspensions have been investigated extensively, kaolin ultrasonic attenuation properties at different temperatures and concentrations have not yet been reported. Through experimental validation in the laboratory, this study provides results from a series of measurements of kaolin ultrasonic attenuation over a wide range of concentrations (0–300 000 ppm) and practical temperatures (5–25 °C). The ultrasonic measurement of attenuation of sediment sampled from the Shihmen reservoir in Taiwan is also investigated. Results show that variations in ultrasonic attenuation are driven by concentration and temperature. Two regression functions are established to quantitatively relate attenuation to kaolin concentration and the Shihmen reservoir sample at a given temperature. An ultrasonic system is designed and manufactured for real‐time sediment concentration monitoring in the Shihmen reservoir based on these experimental ultrasonic attenuation measurements. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A COMPARISON OF EASTERN AND WESTERN HONG KONG PHYTOPLANKTON FROM WEEKLY SAMPLES （1997-1999）

Weekly phytoplankton samples were taken from western Hong Kong (Lamma) from Jan. 1997 to Dec. 1999 and from Port Shelter in Eastern Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 1999. During that time diatom blooms occurred repeatedly at both sites but never in synchrony. One species would bloom at one site and then weeks later it or another species would bloom at the other site; while the 1998 red tide of the mucus producing dinoflagellateGymnodinium mikimotoi occurred at both sites. It first occurred at the Port Shelter site in March and did not appear at the Lamma site until April. With the single exception of this species, no other dinoflagellate reached bloom concentrations at the Lamma site. In addition, dinoflagellate abundance at the Lamma site was significantly lower (P<0.05) than that at the Port Shelter site. This was correlated with a significantly higher turbidity (i. e. low Secchi transparency) and higher turbulence (stronger currents) at the Lamma site. Annual variation in surface temperature correlated with total surface phytoplankton abundance at both our sample sites. Phytoplankton abundance increased in spring as water temperatures warmed. In fall, as surface water temperatures began to decline and the monsoon rains became less frequent there was a reduction in phytoplankton abundance associated with the reduction in temperature and light. Because so many variables co-occur with temperature (e. g. the amount of rainfall light intensity and light duration etc.) it is not possible to cite temperature as the causal factor associated weth controlling phytoplankton abundance at our two sample sites. Our data support the rather controversial notion that percentage-wise, there are relatively more harmful bloom forming species in nutrient-rich coastal waters than there are in the world's oceans. 16% of the dinoflagellate species and 10.3% of the diatom species observed at our two sample sites were classed as harmful. These percentages were higher than those cited by Sournia (1995) for the worlds oceans (9.6% and 6.8% respectively). This raises the possibility that there are relatively more toxic species in the nutrient-rich coastal waters of the world than there are in the mid ocean nutrient-poor areas of the world. Some reasons for this are briefly discussed.