利用最大降水量拟合福州城市内涝积水深度的误差分析

利用2015—2016年福州城区内涝和地面气象观测资料,分析内涝成因、最大降雨量与积水深度的关系,建立城市内涝积水深度拟合方程,并对拟合效果进行了检验。结果表明:1)导致福州城市内涝的突发性原因占26%,是城市管网等数据更新困难的主因,非突发性原因占74%;2)在3次不同天气系统的降雨量拟合结果中,雨季降水过程拟合平均绝对误差最小,午后雷雨天气降雨过程拟合平均绝对误差最大;3)对内涝积水深度负拟合值进行归零处理和阈值限定后,其结果均与实况相符;4)基于最新数据资料所得拟合值的误差更小。     

贵州一次严重冰冻雨雪过程环境场分析

2008年1月10日至2月2日,我国南方发生了大范围的持续冰雪灾害,贵州是受灾最严重的省份之一。通过对高度场、温度、降水量、流场、涡度等要素场的分析,重点探讨此次极端气象事件对贵州影响最明显的第3次过程,以及形成严重冰冻雨雪天气和温度异常偏低的主要环流特征。结果表明,在强拉尼娜的背景下,稳定在乌拉尔山以东的阻塞高压持续存在、极涡异常偏强偏东、西太平洋副高偏西偏强、南支槽较常年活跃等,是造成这次过程的主要原因。主要特征是850 hPa以下出现温度低于0℃的冷空气层,在700 hPa附近是相对较暖的气层,其上层是较冷的冰晶层,西南低空急流及槽前正的相对涡度平流明显,急流带来的暖湿平流提供了充足的水汽,并保证了融化层中源源不断的热量供应,上下层涡度平流的差异有利于上升运动的发展,为贵州第3次雨雪过程的发生提供了条件。     

A new method for estimating driven pile static skin friction with instrumentation at the top and bottom of the pile

A numerical technique is presented to estimate ultimate skin friction of a driven pile using instrumentation installed at the top and bottom of a pile. The scheme is based on an analytical solution of the 1D wave equation with static skin friction and damping along with a genetic algorithm for solution. Specifically, acceleration and strains measured at both the top and bottom of the pile are used to develop an observed Green's function, which is matched to an analytical Green's function, which is a function of secant stiffness and viscous damping. Requiring 1–3 s of analysis time per blow, the algorithm provides a real time assessment of average skin friction along the pile. The technique was applied to four driven piles having ultimate skin frictions varying from 700 to 2000 kN, with the predicted skin frictions generally consistent with measured static load test results.     

Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained.     

Development of an urban landslide cellular automata model: a case study of North Vancouver, Canada

Many GIS-based landslide models require detailed datasets that are ideally collected from field measurements, which can incur high costs for carrying out surveys. Even when the data is on hand, implementing physics-based slope stability techniques can be difficult. Common research practice uses differential equations to characterize the dynamic flow of a landslide, but it is often laborious without making substantial simplifications. A possible solution is to implement a cellular automata modeling approach, which represents both spatial and temporal components, to simulate the dynamics of the landslide propagation process. In this study, a simplified cellular automata model is developed for the effective prediction of landslide runouts, where the data requirement is a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Parameters, such as slope and slope curvature features, are derived from the DEM and coupled with logistic regression. The developed model is implemented on the Patrick and Dawson-Chu Slide in North Vancouver, Canada. The results from this study site were favorable, given almost 90% agreement between simulated landslides and data obtained for real landslides. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed on the initiation sites to test the model logic and outputs of the landslide flow.     

牙形石动物分类归属研究新进展—牙形石是最早的脊椎动物

在简要回顾牙形石动物分类位置研究历史的基础上，主要介绍了近十年来这一问题的最新研究成果。英国古生物学家们通过牙形石动物的软体解剖学研究，发现眼睛、脊索、神经索、肌肉组织、尾鳍等软组织；牙形石分子硬体组织学研究揭示了细胞状骨骼、球状钙化软骨、类珐琅质及牙质等硬组织。新的证据表明牙形石动物是脊椎动物，从而将脊椎动物的历史向前推移了４０～５０Ｍａ。     

Ore—Forming Conditions and the Process of Gold Mineralization of Wendeng Gold Deposit,Shandong—Application of Cathodo—Luminescence in Fluid Inclusion Studies

The Wendeng gold deposit is located 30 km northwest of Wendeng City,Shandong Province, occurring in a brecciated alteration zone in the foot wall of the NNE-striking fault(F1). It consists of quartz, pyrite, specularite, potash feldspar, sericite, carbonates and chlorite hosted in Proterozoic biotite-plagioclasee gneiss. Three generations of quartz are recognized based on cathodoluminescence and micro morphology. Systematic studies of fluid inclusions provide data to establish P-T-V-X relations for the fluid evolution in mineralization process.It is concluded that the ore-forming solution was evolved from meteoric water through ghermal events during Mesozoic tectonics. The precipitation of gold was related to two boiling events.     

新疆伽师地震区三维Qem>值结构

利用中国地震局地球物理勘探中心1998年在伽师地震区记录的天然地震资料，通过地震记录波形资料的衰减来反演伽师地震区地壳介质的三维Ｓ波Q值结构，并初步了解该地震区内地壳深部断层的大致形态．首先，对精选的450多次地震记录的Ｓ波求出其振幅谱，称为观测振幅谱；然后，假设震源符合布伦圆盘位错模式，在对仪器和场地效应校正之后，用非线性阻尼最小二乘法对理论振幅谱和观测振幅谱进行拟合，从而得到观测吸收特征时间；最后，利用三维射线追踪方法，对理论吸收特征时间与观测吸收特征时间进行非线性阻尼最小二乘拟合．在拟合过程中，速度模型保持不变．速度模型是通过三维走时层析成像得到的，只修改Q值模型，当拟合达到给定精度后，便得到最终的Q值模型．结果表明，在10～18ｋｍ 的深度范围内，存在一个北东向的低Q值条带；在12～18ｋｍ 的深度范围内，存在一个北西向的低Q值条带．这与他人所做的北东向、北西向的两个低速条带较接近．不同的是，低Q值条带深度范围比低速带的更大一些．      

秦岭三叠纪古海盆的生态地层、生物古地理特征及其演化

本文在对西秦岭4条剖面进行生态地层研究的基础上,通过生态地层对比揭示了三叠纪秦岭海盆进化的一般模式和海平面变化的细节。古生物地理分析表明:三叠纪时,秦岭北侧属于温带生物区系,秦岭南部属于热带-亚热带生物区系。秦岭各区与邻区之间生物相似性系数研究表明,秦岭三叠纪海盆具有一定的宽度和深度,但不是宽广的大洋。     

山东诸诚地区胶南群榴辉岩围岩高压变质作用特征

大别－苏北－胶南－荣成含榴辉岩带长达１３００ｋｍ，胶南合榴辉岩地体位于这一变质带中段。本文通过对胶南地体西北缘的诸城地区榴辉岩围岩的岩石学、矿物学及热力学等方面的研究，首次在该区发现了一些高压的特征矿物：（石榴）镁钠门石暗硬玉片麻岩中暗硬玉具有较高的硬玉分子含量，最高达２２．５ｍｏｌ％，并具明显的成份环带；石榴多硅白云母二长片麻岩及石榴多硅白云母变粒岩中，多硅白云母略具粉红色多色性，其中Ｓｉ＝３．４４～３．５５，ｂ０＝９．０６。同时探讨了胶南群变质作用特征及Ｐ—Ｔ—ｔ演化趋势。