Processing of refractory meteorite inclusions (CAIs) in parent-body atmospheres

The refractory meteorite inclusions known as CAIs (calcium-aluminum rich inclusions) display melted rims that were produced by thermal events of only a few seconds duration. We show that gas dynamic deceleration in a temporary atmosphere around an accreting parent body, produced by gas release during accretion, could provide a regime of sufficiently high gas density and small scale height to achieve partial melting of the CAIs. In addition, the presence of dust in the atmosphere would increase the gradient of pressure with height (i.e., effectively reduce the scale height), lower the rate of blowoff (thus keeping more gas around the body), as well as allow dust particles to become trapped in the partially melted material as is observed in some cases. Thus, CAIs may be regarded as probes of a primitive atmosphere by virtue of the thermal and mineralogical alteration that occurred upon their passage through the atmosphere.     

鲁西北持续性暴雨非地转湿Q矢量分析

利用常规观测资料、NECP/NCAR提供的1°×1°FNL全球再分析资料,对2012年鲁西北一次持续性暴雨进行了湿Q矢量方法诊断分析。结果表明：此次持续暴雨出现在有利的环流背景下,降水区域集中并有明显的中尺度特征,湿Q矢量方法是分析强降水落区很好的工具;925～850 hPa湿Q矢量散度与强降水落区有较好的对应关系,但暴雨并不总是出现在湿Q矢量散度负值区中心,有时出现在湿Q矢量散度梯度大的负值区一侧;700 hPa湿Q矢量涡度正值中心与散度负值重叠的区域是中尺度低值系统发展有利的区域,与未来6～12 h暴雨落区有很好的对应;湿Q矢量锋生函数差值预报强降水落区明显优于锋生函数。     

集合预报最优ETKF初始扰动方法设计及其在暴雨中的应用

为改进集合转换卡尔曼滤波方法(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF)在初始扰动中离散度偏小的问题,考虑引入物理不确定性。使用初始时刻离散度检验两种ETKF初始扰动方案改进的程度,通过动力和水汽条件分析探求改进机制。利用WRF模式构建更新预报系统,选取2014年5月一次暴雨个例进行集合降水预报试验,通过ETKF方法设计两种不同的初始扰动方案。结果表明:在分析循环中引入多物理扰动的初始扰动方案(multi)相比单一物理过程的初始扰动方案(mono)在初始时刻离散度和模拟动力水汽条件以及降水评分上均有较大改进。初始扰动中multi的离散度相比mono整体更优,显然添加了多物理扰动方案的试验对结果有改进作用;在对两种方案的机理分析中,multi对于降水位置的明显改善主要取决于散度及水汽通量散度模拟能力的提高;在离散度分析中,multi方案在强对流区域的改进效果比在整个区域中的更好,而对各变量的离散度和均方根误差之比相当,说明集合预报系统的合理性;对各量级预报结果评分显示,multi方案均呈现较好表现能力。     

Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

In the context of global warming, China is facing with increasing climate risks. It is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different industries. Based on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data, a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging, drought, high temperature, cryogenic freezing, and typhoon. A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index (CRI) for China from these individual indices. There is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic conditions. The CRI, the index of water-logging by rain, and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28, 0.37, and 0.65 per decade, respectively, from 1961 to 2016. The cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for food. The high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and electricity. The correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as 0.70. Both the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the CRI. The year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same year. More efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.     

水文学研究进展与展望

水文学是研究地球上水的起源、存在、分布、循环运动等变化规律,并运用这些规律为人类服务的知识体系。水文学研究经历了由经验到理论、由简单过程到复杂系统、由定性描述到定量模拟的发展历程,其学科体系演进与科学技术进步及社会发展需求紧密联系,并由此衍生出诸如生态水文学、气象水文学、冰冻圈水文学、遥感水文学、同位素水文学、城市水文学、社会水文学等多种交叉研究领域与分支学科。当今水文学研究在水文多尺度观测、陆面—水文—社会耦合模拟及多源观测—模型同化技术等领域取得显著进展,水文学研究的广度和深度不断拓展。未来水文学研究将面向陆地水文循环的变化规律及其效应,重点关注水文循环变化特征和机理、水文循环变化趋势预估及水文循环变化的自然和社会影响等前沿课题;从原有就水论水研究思路转向在自然地理综合分析框架下以水循环为纽带开展的多尺度、多过程集成研究。     

Quantifying multi-modal public transit accessibility for large metropolitan areas: a time-dependent reliability modeling approach

The temporal dimensions of public transit accessibility have recently garnered an increasing amount of interest. However, the existing literature on transit accessibility is heavily based on oversimplified assumptions that transit services operate at deterministic speeds using predetermined timetables. These measurements may overestimate transit accessibility, especially for large metropolitan areas where inter- and intra-modal transfers are frequent. To handle travel time uncertainty, a multi-modal transit accessibility modeling approach is proposed to account for realistic variations in travel time and service reliability. The proposed approach is applied to the mapping of transit accessibility in Shenzhen (China), where transit services exhibit significant travel time variations over space and time. Compared to traditional transit accessibility measures, our method has been demonstrated to better capture intrinsic spatial and temporal accessibility variations with complex multi-modal transit networks. Normal distribution of inter-stop travel times and constant travel speed between GPS sampling points are assumed to simply the computation, which we consider to adjust in future studies to better quantify the dynamics of transit accessibility across space and time.     

Freeze-thaw processes of active-layer soils in the Nanweng'he River National Natural Reserve in the Da Xing'anling Mountains,northern Northeast China

The active-layer soils overlying the permafrost are the most thermodynamically active zone of rock or soil and play important roles in the earth-atmosphere energy system. The processes of thawing and freezing and their associated complex hydrothermal coupling can significantly affect variation in mean annual temperatures and the formation of ground ice in permafrost regions. Using soil-temperature and-moisture data obtained from the active layer between September 2011 and October 2014 in the permafrost region of the Nanweng'he River in the Da Xing'anling Mountains, the freeze-thaw characteristics of the permafrost were studied. Based on analysis of ground-temperature variation and hydrothermal transport characteristics, the thawing and freezing processes of the active layer were divided into three stages:(1) autumn-winter freezing,(2) winter freeze-up, and(3) spring-summer thawing. Variations in the soil temperature and moisture were analyzed during each stage of the freeze-thaw process, and the effects of the soil moisture and ground vegetation on the freeze-thaw are discussed in this paper. The study's results show that thawing in the active layer was unidirectional, while the ground freezing was bidirectional(upward from the bottom of the active layer and downward from the ground surface).During the annual freeze-thaw cycle, the migration of soil moisture had different characteristics at different stages. In general, during a freezing-thawing cycle, the soil-water molecules migrate downward, i.e., soil moisture transports from the entire active layer to the upper limit of the permafrost. In the meantime, freeze-thaw in the active layer can be significantly affected by the soil-moisture content and vegetation.     

Analysis of the Dynamic System of Wave Glider with a Towed Body

Mobile observation platforms are widely used in oceanographic and marine resource exploration and other applications. Wave Glider is a mobile platform that can transform wave energy into locomotion power and overcome the bottleneck of low energy supply. Wave Glider has recently been applied to tow underwater sensors fulfilling observation tasks. In this paper, the dynamic system of Wave Glider with a towed body is studied by applying multibody mechanics, and the relevant motion conditions of the system are investigated. Dynamic models of Wave Glider with a towed body and tether are first developed individually and then integrated into a whole model. The numerical method is used to obtain the dynamic responses and assess performance of the towed body pulled by the submerged glider of Wave Glider. The effects of sea state, mass of the towed body, and length of the towed cable are investigated on the basis of simulation results. This work can be used for the design and analysis of Wave Glider-towed body systems.     

Determination of the parameter pattern and values for a one-dimensional multi-zone unconfined aquifer

In an aquifer, heterogeneity plays an important role in governing groundwater flow. Hence, aquifer characterization should involve both the pattern and values of the hydrogeological parameters. A new analytical solution describing the one-dimensional groundwater flow in a multi-zone unconfined aquifer is presented, and a methodology developed from the analytical solution and a heuristic approach for determining the pattern and values of the aquifer parameters are proposed. The analytical solution demonstrates that the hydraulic head varies spatially and is influenced by aquifer heterogeneity. Simulated annealing, a heuristic approach, is incorporated with the solution to simultaneously identify the pattern and values of the hydraulic conductivity for a horizontal multi-zone unconfined aquifer. This approach may be used to give an approximate result for a two-dimensional problem by dividing the model area into a number of transects along the transverse direction, identifying the parameter values along the longitudinal direction for each transect, and then smoothing the identified results.     

贺兰山深部构造及其对浅部构造的响应过程

根椐实测贺兰山地区二叠系、三叠系和侏罗系含煤地层热解数据及石英脉中包裹体测温发现贺兰山地区热演化程度整体水平较高,相对邻区而言,明显具有异常地热场的特征。在分析航磁ΔT化极图、重力上延5km、10km等值线图后认为该区并不存在磁力高,前人设想贺兰山下2~5km处发育中酸性巨型岩基造成该区地热异常的说法缺乏足够证据。并且在贺兰山地区重力上延3km、5km等值线图上存在明显的重力高,剩余重力异常、莫霍面深度和地温梯度图也显示贺兰山地区为一热异常的幔隆区,它明显有别于其他造山带区。因此,贺兰山地区的高热演化特征应是莫霍面的上隆引起的地温梯度升高所致。最后结合研究区玄武岩地质地球化学特征认为贺兰山及周邻地区莫霍面上隆是造成早中侏罗世以来的热事件的原因。