图象的模型及其统计特性

本文对图象的统计特性及其适用模型作了分析。讨论了以前常用的平稳图象模型的缺陷,对实际图象的统计特性作了分析,认为它是非平稳的,不满足各态历经性,同时在空间上是高度相关的;讨论了相应的随机参数统计模型和描述性统计模型。指出作用于整幅图象的“全局”图象复原算法比每次只独立计算单个象元的“点”图象复原算法更为优越。     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

用遗传算法解算病态方程

对应用遗传算法解决病态方程问题进行了探讨。利用拟合法而不是通过法方程求解参数，从而避免了法方程系数求逆，使病态方程的解答有了较好的结果。通过模拟计算并和其他方法进行比较，证明该方法是可行的和有效的。     

星际A型CH_3CH－H_2含超精细能级的碰撞跃迁速率系数的理论计算

本文作者利用ＩＯＳ近似模型，计算了星际分子云条件下Ａ型ＣＨ３ＣＮ－Ｈ２含超精细能级的碰撞跃迁速率系数。温度范围是２０Ｋ－１４０Ｋ。为研究分子云与恒星形成区的物理、化学性质提供了有用的基础分子数据。     

Automated Separation of Stars and Normal Galaxies Based on Statistical Mixture Modeling with RBF Neural Networks

For LAMOST, the largest sky survey program in China, the solution of the problem of automatic discrimination of stars from galaxies by spectra has shown that the results of the PSF test can be significantly refined. However, the problem is made worse when the redshifts of galaxies are not available. We present a new automatic method of star/(normal) galaxy separation, which is based on Statistical Mixture Modeling with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (SMM-RBFNN). This work is a continuation of our previous one, where active and non-active celestial objects were successfully segregated. By combining the method in this paper and the previous one, stars can now be effectively separated from galaxies and AGNs by their spectra-a major goal of LAMOST, and an indispensable step in any automatic spectrum classification system. In our work, the training set includes standard stellar spectra from Jacoby's spectrum library and simulated galaxy spectra of EO, SO, Sa, Sb types with redshift ranging from 0 to 1     

The masers of E-type methanol in orion KL and SGR B2

Using a simplified model the statistical equilibrium and radiative transfer equations of E-type-CH₃OH are solved for Orion KL and SgrB2. According to our calculation results and the observation data taken by Matsakiset al. (1980) and Morimotoet al. (1985a, b), the physical conditions of both sources are estimated. In theJ ₂-J ₁ E methanol maser region of Orion KL, the density, kinetic temperature, dust temperature, and the fractional abundance are 0.8–2×10⁶ cm^–3, 150, 30–90 K, 0.8–8×10^–6. In the 4_–1-3₀ E and 5_–1-4₀ E methanol maser region of Sgr B2 the correspondance physical conditions above are 10⁴ cm³, 45, 23 K, and 7×10^–7, respectively.     

BTOPMC模型与新安江模型在史河上游的应用比较研究

介绍了一个由TOPMODEL发展而来的基于栅格的分布式水文模型--BTOPMC模型.选取史河流域黄泥庄水文站以上集水面积为研究区域,在空间分辨率为30秒的数字高程模型数据基础上构建数字流域水系,基于IGBP全球陆面土地覆被数据以及FAO全球数字土壤数据运用BTOPMC模型和新安江模型分别对黄泥庄站1982年到1987年的日径流过程进行模拟.采用模拟与实测洪量比和确定性系数对两个模型的模拟结果进行比较分析.结果表明两个模型都能很好地模拟日径流过程,新安江模型有更好的模拟效果.     

Centrifugal test of a road embankment built after new dredger fill on thick marine clay

Abstract

The construction of a 100-km road network is planned on a land reclamation area in the Oujiang Estuary in China. The embankment had a height of 4 m and a base width of 60 m. The reclamation area is newly filled by a 3-m dredger fill on a 48-m thick layer of marine clay. Estimation of the settlement of the future road network is difficult. To guide the construction of the road network, a 1/100-scale centrifuge model test was performed with a marine clay sample from the construction site to simulate the layered settlements and evaluate the drainage effect of prefabricated vertical drains in the dredger fill in the following 10 years. The results of the centrifuge modeling test are verified by 10-month in situ monitoring, which shows agreement between the centrifuge modeling test results and the in situ results. The test results indicate that additional time is needed to reinforce the newly added dredger fill by the surcharge preloading method to uplift the elevation of the reclamation area with dredger fill.     

棉兰老涡旋的数值模拟

用一个水平分辨率比较高的非线性正压模式,对热带西太平洋海域里的海流进行了数值模拟。计算海流与观测结果颇相一致。结果表明:赤道以北、棉兰老岛以东附近海域中,棉兰老冷涡在一年的大部分时间里都得到发展,但是其范围、强度和中心位置在各个月份并不相同,显示出很强的季节变化;在哈马黑拉岛东北海域,6月份突然出现了一个反气旋式的涡旋;这个涡旋8月份发展得最强,一直持续到10月份,在11月份就消亡了。     

Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.