Geoarchaeological and Bioarchaeological Studies at Mira,an Early Upper Paleolithic Site in the Lower Dnepr Valley,Ukraine

New geoarchaeological and bioarcheological research was undertaken at the open‐air site of Mira, which is buried in deposits of the Second Terrace of the Dnepr River, roughly 15 km downstream from the city of Zaporozhye in Ukraine. Previous excavation of the site revealed two occupation layers dating to ∼32,000 cal BP. The lower layer (II/2) yielded bladelets similar to those of the early Gravettian, while the upper layer (I) contained traces of an artificial shelter and hundreds of bones and teeth of horse (Equus latipes). Mira represents the only firmly dated early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) site in the Dnepr Basin, and occupies a unique topographic setting for the EUP near the center of the broad floodplain of the Dnepr River. The site was visited during a period of floodplain stability, characterized by overbank deposition and weak soil formation under cool climate conditions. Mira was used as a long‐term camp, but also was the locus of large‐mammal carcass processing associated with a nearby kill of a group of horses (Layer I).     

Joint direction-of-arrival and array-shape tracking for multiplemoving targets

The problem of tracking the directions-of-arrival (DOAs) of multiple moving sonar targets with an array of passive sensors is complicated by sensor movement. An algorithm for the joint tracking of source DOAs and sensor positions is presented to address this problem. Initial maximum-likelihood estimates of source DOAs and sensor positions are refined by Kalman filtering. Spatio-temporally correlated array movement is considered. Source angle dynamics are used to achieve correct data association. The new technique is capable of performing well for the difficult cases of sources that cross in angle as well as for fully coherent sources. Computer simulations show that the approach is robust in the presence of array motion modeling uncertainty and effectively reduces dependence on expensive and possibly unreliable hardware     

Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.     

Action targets: a new approach to international greenhouse gas controls

Abstract

This article introduces and explores a new form of international commitment to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, called an action target. Action targets differ from other forms of targets, such as the Kyoto Protocol's fixed targets, in that they define a quantity of GHG abatement to be achieved, rather than a future emission level to be reached. This article explains the basic mechanics of how action targets might operate, and analyses the approach across a range of criteria, including uncertainty management and contributions to sustainable development in non-Annex I (developing) countries. The analysis suggests that action targets might improve the prospects of widening and deepening developing country participation in the international climate regime.     

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

Computer Science and Programming Courses in Geography Departments in the United States

Geographic information systems (GIS) are fundamental information technologies. The capabilities and applications of GIS continue to rapidly expand, requiring practitioners to have new skills and competencies, especially in computer science. There is little research, however, about how best to prepare the next generation of GIScientists with adequate computer science skills. This article explores how U.S. geography departments are introducing and developing computer science and programming skills in their geography and GIS degree programs. We review the degree requirements in fifty-five geography departments and discover that forty-four of them offer some kind of GIS programming course. Of the 210 separate degree options identified, however, only 22 require one of these courses for a degree. There is little consistency or emphasis on computer science and programming skills in geography or GIS degrees, despite the immense importance of these components in geography and GIS careers. We propose future research along distinct investigative tracks to build a research-based understanding of the educational interactions among GIS, computer science, programming, and geography.     

Optical dating and soil micromorphology at MacCauley's Beach,New South Wales,Australia

The ability to position landscapes in a context of time and space is a particular goal of Quaternary science research. The lack of context for dating samples published previously for MacCauley's Beach, an important site for the reconstruction of Australian sea levels, warranted a re‐evaluation of both the site stratigraphy and chronology. In this study, we combined optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sedimentary quartz grains and soil micromorphology of the same samples to improve our understanding of the depositional history and chronology of the sediments. This combination allowed the contextualization of samples not only in time and space, but also in terms of their depositional histories. The latter is important in OSL dating, where pre‐, syn‐ and post‐depositional processes can all influence the accuracy and precision of the final age estimates. The sediment profile at MacCauley's Beach is made up of three major units. The basal mottled mud layer has undergone extensive pedogenesis since deposition, and only a minimum age of 14.7 ± 2.7 ka could be calculated. The overlying grey mud, with OSL ages from the bottom and top of the unit of 10.0 ± 0.7 and 7.7 ± 0.5 ka, respectively, shows evidence of soil structure collapse. This unit correspond to the onset of the mid‐Holocene sea‐level high stand for this region. The overlying sand layer was first deposited at 7.5 ± 0.4 ka, with deposition continuing beyond 6.6 ± 0.4 ka. Not only does the chronology presented constrain the timing of deposition (and the extent of post‐depositional processes) at MacCauley's Beach, but the methodological approach used here can be applied to any site to aid in the interpretation of formation processes and assess their influence on OSL age determination. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Change in climate variability in the 21st century

As climate changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases, there is the potential for climate variability to change as well. The change in variability of temperature and precipitation in a transient climate simulation, where trace gases are allowed to increase gradually, and in the doubled CO₂ climate is investigated using the GISS general circulation model. The current climate control run is compared with observations and with the climate change simulations for variability on three time-scales: interannual variability, daily variability, and the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. The results show that the modeled variability is often larger than observed, especially in late summer, possibly due to the crude ground hydrology. In the warmer climates, temperature variability and the diurnal cycle amplitude usually decrease, in conjunction with a decrease in the latitudinal temperature gradient and the increased greenhouse inhibition of radiative cooling. Precipitation variability generally changes with the same sign as the mean precipitation itself, usually increasing in the warmer climate. Changes at a particular grid box are often not significant, with the prevailing tendency determined from a broader sampling. Little change is seen in daily persistence. The results are relevant to the continuing assessments of climate change impacts on society, though their use should be tempered by appreciation of the model deficiencies for the current climate.