基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

Partition-coordinated control of soil and water loss for chestnut forests in the Yanshan Mountain Region,China

Soil erosion from chestnut forests is one of the most important factors causing land degradation in the Yanshan Mountain Region. A 2-year field study was done to compare the effects on erosion of a control plot(CP), a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 6 m(MP 1),and a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 8 m(MP 2). The results showed that the slope runoff of chestnut forests was influenced by rainfall characteristic factors.No single rainfall characteristic factor showed dominance for hill slope runoff. The runoff reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures(MP 1 and MP 2) was substantial for chestnut forests under high rainfall intensity conditions. However, the runoff reduction efficiency was higher under the conditions of heavy rainfall and low average rainfall intensity than for storms with higher intensity and lower total rainfall. The reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures on the runoff and sediment yield of chestnut forest slopes was MP 2 > MP 1 > CP. The runoff reduction rate and erosion reduction rate of MP 2 reached 61.70% and 97.41%, respectively, and that for MP 1 was 54.15% and 85.31%, respectively. Therefore, after a comprehensive comparison, MP 2 was determined to be more effective for soil erosion control for a sloping chestnut forest.     

基于人工地震波作用下大跨度悬索桥多点激励地震响应分析

为研究大跨度悬索桥在多点激励作用下的地震响应规律,在已有的功率谱模型基础上提出了改进的功率谱模型,并将其应用到人工地震波合成过程中。以某水库上主跨720 m双塔单跨悬索桥为研究对象,用Midas civil建立全桥有限元模型,采用大质量法进行不同波速多点激励地震响应分析。结果表明:大跨度悬索桥在多点激励作用下的主塔内力响应、主塔位移响应及主梁位移响应均受行波效应、衰减效应、不相干效应及衰减后地震波叠加效应影响,且最终的响应值由衰减后地震波的叠加效应与衰减效应的共同作用决定;500 m/s多点激励下衰减后的地震波叠加加强效应与衰减效应共同作用后,对主塔轴力响应、主塔塔底顺桥向剪力响应、左塔上横梁处剪力和弯矩响应的加强效果最大;各波速多点激励下,主塔顶顺桥向位移响应相对变化率均大于零且几乎保持不变,主梁两端顺桥向位移响应相对变化率在1 000 m/s波速取得最大值,主梁竖向位移响应在500 m/s取得最大值并随波速的增加逐渐接近一致激励情况。     

特高压互连电气设备减震性能振动台试验

为研究铅金属减震器对特高压互连电气设备的减震效果,进行由硬管母线连接的特高压避雷器设备和电容式电压互感器设备组成的互连耦合体系的地震模拟振动台试验。通过白噪声扫频、抗震及减震试验,测定互连耦合体系抗震结构及减震结构的自振频率以及关键部位的应变、加速度响应。试验结果表明:抗震结构中避雷器设备的最大应变响应大于互感器设备,互连耦合体系中的避雷器设备属于易损设备;安装减震器后互连设备频率降低幅度较小,减震器基本不会影响电气设备的正常运行;安装减震器后互连耦合体系中的避雷器设备和互感器设备在较大峰值加速度地震波作用下,设备顶端加速度响应和最大应变响应均有较大幅度的降低,避雷器设备和互感器设备的最大应变响应的减震效率分别为75%和50%,减震效果显著,减震器的应用大幅提升了互连耦合体系的抗震能力。     

2018年12月16日兴文5.7级地震序列定位

Gong Yue;Zhao Min;LongFeng;Fu Ying(Sichuan Earthquake Agency,Sichuan Chengdu 610041,China)     

Spatiotemporal variations of dissolved inorganic carbon and controlling factors in a small karstic catchment,Southwestern China

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is the most important carbon component in karst aquatic system where fluid is highly transmissive, but has rarely been examined in the subtropical karst critical zone (K-CZ). In this study, concentrations of dissolved solutes and isotopic compositions of DIC (δ¹³C_DIC) at 11 sites of a 73.4 km² karstic catchment in Southwestern China were analysed monthly in order to uncover the spatiotemporal variations of both DIC and its dominant sources, and to identify relevant controlling factors. Both DIC concentrations and δ¹³C_DIC were highly variable, ranging from 2.52 to 5.85 mmol l⁻¹ and from −15.7 to −4.5‰, respectively. DIC in underground water (UGW) was higher in concentration and more depleted in ¹³C compared to surface water (SFS). DIC concentrations showed an inconsistent seasonal trend with other solutes, with higher values in the wet season at some sites. δ¹³C_DIC values were lower in the wet season than in the dry season. The results of mixing model IsoSource revealed spatiotemporal patterns of DIC sources. During the dry season, carbonate weathering was the primary contributor to DIC in UGW (excluding in the middle reaches). However, during the wet season, soil CO₂ was the dominant source of DIC in both UGW and SFS, and it was higher than in the dry season. Overall, there are significant spatiotemporal disparities and highly transmissive characteristics of both DIC and its sources in the K-CZ, which are controlled by multiple factors. This study also highlights that rainfall may play a crucial role in accelerating carbon dynamics in the K-CZ. High-frequency sampling campaigns in high-flow periods and deep analyses are needed in future work to elucidate the related processes and mechanisms. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Test and analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) precast shear wall assembled using steel shear key (SSK)

Reinforced concrete (RC) precast shear walls are extensively applied in practical engineering, owing to their fast construction speed. However, because of the transport conditions, RC precast shear walls have to be separated into small wall segments during the factory prefabrication procedure before being assembled on site. Typically, wet-type jointing methods are adopted to link the segments, which is time-consuming and results in unreliable post-pouring area strength. To overcome this problem, the novel scheme of the steel shear key (SSK) featuring steel shear panels and combined fillet and plug welding is proposed. Three RC precast shear wall specimens with different linking strength, termed as weakened SSK wall, standard SSK wall, and strengthened SSK wall, respectively, and an integrated shear wall specimen were designed. Quasi-static cyclic loading was applied to investigate the specimens' dynamic properties. The test results suggest the prefabricated wall segments equipped with SSKs showed reliable stiffness and bearing capacity and were improved in energy dissipation ability, compared with conventional shear walls. As the shear stiffness and number of equipped SSKs increased, the specimens exhibited higher strength, but their ductility and energy dissipation were slightly decreased. Most importantly, the standard SSK wall specimen could achieve satisfactory bearing capacity and deformability and is thus recommended for precast building structures. Finite element method (FEM) models were established to validate the test results, and parametric study analysis was conducted based on the coupling ratio of the SSK walls. Finally, an appropriate coupling ratio range is recommended for practical engineering applications.     

首都圈东部地区震群序列性质判定

采用传统方法和数字地震学方法（视应力）,对首都圈东部地区2009-2017年发生的震群序列性质进行分析,分析结果表明：①使用传统方法不能确定震群序列性质,可以利用视应力方法进一步分析,该方法能够反映每个震群应力场的变化特征,可以进行异常性质判别;②通过2种方法的对比分析,可以提高震群序列异常性质判定结果的科学性和可信度,为后续地震活动趋势提供有力的参考依据。对2种方法进行震例检验,可知后续地震一般为中等以上地震,在震群（具有异常性质）发生1-7个月后发震,发震位置在震源区附近。     

晋冀蒙交界地区中小地震视应力时空分布特征

选取晋冀蒙交界地区固定和临时测震台网记录的2014-2016年地震波形资料,采用近震Brune模型,结合遗传算法,反演计算298次M_L ≥ 2.0中小地震视应力值,分析震源参数之间的标度关系,并按照震中分区,分析不同地区视应力时序变化特征及不同震级区间视应力空间分布特征,发现该区多处存在视应力高值现象,地震多发生于视应力高值异常及附近地区,与断裂带有一定对应关系。     

地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。