Late Holocene Asian monsoon variations recorded in Lake Rara sediment,western Nepal

The Himalayas are a key location for understanding centennial‐ to millennial‐scale variations in the Asian monsoon, yet few studies of the late Holocene have been conducted in this sensitive area. Direct evidence for shifts in monsoonal wind strength is often limited to marine proxy records, while terrestrial reconstructions (e.g. lake levels and spleothems) focus on precipitation. Here, we present the first evidence of terrestrial summer monsoon wind strength changes from Lake Rara, western Nepal, based on Mn/Ti ratios, a proxy for lake stratification. These data indicate a link between the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas, suggesting that centennial‐ to millennial‐scale changes in wind strength occurred synchronously. Distinct similarity is also observed between Lake Rara and the southern part of China, which may support previous suggestions that the southern part of China is influenced by Indian summer monsoon. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrology of Blue Lake in the Dinaric karst

The aim of this paper is to analyse hydrological measurements obtained from Blue Lake located near the town of Imotski (Croatia), during the period from 6 November 2009 at 10:26 h to 4 September 2010 at 03:26 h (7230 h or 302 days). The water depth, water temperature and electrical conductivity of the water were continuously measured during this period. The measurements were obtained with a CTD DIVER (Schlumberger Water Services). The instrument was fixed at the bottom of Blue Lake, which means that all the measured data refer to a single point of measurement. The data represent the first systematic and continuous monitoring of the hydrological parameters of this fascinating karst phenomenon. The hydrological analysis also involved daily rainfall data and daily mean air temperatures recorded at the nearby Imotski meteorological station. The rate of water level rise and fall and the hourly and daily average inflow and outflow into and from the lake were calculated using the available data. The analysis led to the conclusion that Blue Lake is mainly recharged by water coming from the karst aquifer, the dimensions and the characteristics of which have not yet been adequately studied. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of pantellerite-trachyte-phonolite volcanoes by fractional crystallization of basanite magma in a continental rift setting,Marie Byrd Land,Antarctica

The Marie Byrd Land province includes 18 large (up to 1,800 km³) central volcanoes distributed across an active volcano-tectonic dome. The typical volcano structure consists of a basal 1,000–5,000 m of basanite surmounted by trachyte and subordinate intermediate rocks, plus phonolite, or pantellerite, or comendite. The volumes of felsic sections are large (~30–700 km³), but these rocks probably make up <10% of volcanic rock in the province. This paper describes pantellerite volcanoes in the Ames and Flood Ranges, which include a large and varied suite of these iron-rich, silica-poor rhyolites. Isotopic and trace element data, maintenance of isotopic equilibrium throughout the basalt-felsic range, and the results of modeling, all exclude significant crustal contamination and point to fractional crystallization as the process that controls magmatic evolution. The most unusual feature of these volcanoes is the apparent need to derive pantellerites from basanite, the long interval of fractionation at the base of the lithosphere and crust, involving kaersutite as the key phase in developing pantellerite, and a plumbing system that permitted coeval eruption of pantellerite and phonolite from the same edifice. Peralkalinity most likely developed in upper crustal reservoirs during the final 4–5% of magmatic history, by fractionating a high proportion of plagioclase under low pH₂O. Mantle plume activity appears to drive doming and volcanism. This, a stationary plate, and continental lithospheric structure seem to provide an optimal environment for the evolution of a diverse, large volume suite of felsic rocks by fractional crystallization.     

Coastal currents caused by superposition of coastal-trapped waves and near-inertial oscillations observed near the Noto Peninsula, Japan

Current observations were made from 14 July 2006 to 31 March 2007, using an acoustic Doppler current profiler mounted on the seafloor near the eastern coast of the Noto Peninsula, Japan, to investigate strong coastal currents induced by large-amplitude coastal-trapped waves (CTWs) and near-inertial fluctuations (NIFs). The CTWs were generated by the winter monsoon and the passage of a typhoon during the observation period. Two types of strong currents with velocities higher than 50 cm s^-1 were observed. One type, the strong current in winter (SCW), had the coast on the left to its direction of flow. This current was observed after a strengthening of the winter monsoon in January 2007. The other type, the strong current in fall (SCF), had the coast on the right to its direction of flow and was observed after the passage of a typhoon in September 2006. The SCW was inferred to be formed mainly by low-mode CTWs without NIFs. Compared to the SCW, the SCF had a more complicated vertical structure and time variations. The SCF was inferred to be generated by low-mode CTWs strengthened by NIFs. The contributions of NIFs to the strong coastal currents became important when the wind stress direction was rotating clockwise.     

Monitoring volcanoes using seismic noise correlations

In this article, we summarize some recent results of measurements of temporal changes of active volcanoes using seismic noise cross-correlations. We first present a novel approach to estimate volcano interior temporal seismic velocity changes. The proposed method allows to measure very small velocity changes (≈ 0.1%) with a time resolution as small as one day. The application of that method to Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (La Réunion Island) shows velocity decreases preceding eruptions. Moreover, velocity changes from noise cross-correlations over 10 years allow to detect transient velocity changes that could be due to long-lasting intrusions of magma without eruptive activity or to pressure buildup associated to the replenishing of the magma reservoir. We also present preliminary results of noise cross-correlation waveform perturbation associated with the occurrence of dike injection and volcanic eruption. We show that such an analysis leads us to locate the areas of dike injection and eruptive fissures at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano. These recent results suggest that monitoring volcanoes using seismic noise correlations should improve our ability to forecast eruptions, their intensity and thus potential environmental impact.     

Amplification of semidiurnal internal tide observed in the outer part of Tokyo Bay

Monitoring using a thermistor array and an acoustic Doppler current profiler was carried out in the outer part of Tokyo Bay from May 20 to November 30, 2006. Current fluctuations with tidal periods were amplified during the maximum temperature period in early September. The strong current interfered with fishing operations using set nets. Although the current fluctuation was speculated to be baroclinic motion from a phase relationship among fluctuations of temperature, current and sea level, empirical orthogonal function analysis showed the dominance of a barotropic structure. Such a discrepancy in the current structure was explained by an internal tide propagating along a deep canyon in the outer part of Tokyo Bay. Furthermore, amplification of the semidiurnal internal tide and the warming of the temperature field were found to be induced by the intrusion of Kuroshio warm water. The amplification mechanism was examined using a two-dimensional model with idealized topography. It was concluded that the large amplitude of the semidiurnal internal tide is resonantly generated in the deep canyon in the outer Tokyo Bay when stratification becomes strong and the period of the internal seiche approaches the semidiurnal period.     

Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods,July 11–14, 2012

During July 11–14, 2012, deadly floods and landslides triggered by a series of unprecedented heavy rains hit Kyushu, Japan, causing at least 32 deaths and around 400,000 evacuations. We focus on synoptic anomalies identified after inspecting rainfall patterns and documenting the conditions associated with this tragic event using data combined from the Global Rainfall Map in Near Real Time data, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset, and the global forecast system. Rainfall maps indicated that there were many heavy rains in Kyushu in these days and this disaster was associated with the pattern of forecasts and standardized anomalies. A weather trough with positive height anomalies appeared, the center of which moved to the north of Japan over this period, which might cause wind anomalies and whereby lots of water vapor were transported to Kyushu area with up to 90 m s^?1, and high values of precipitable water formed with up to 60 mm. These results suggest that a larger-scale pattern is conducive for heavy rainfall and the anomalies put the pattern in context as to the potential for an extreme rainfall event, which can provide insights and methods for predicting extreme events’ or something similar.     

Effects of transport of pore water and material heterogeneity on strain localization of fluid‐saturated gradient‐dependent viscoplastic geomaterial

The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the effects of permeability and initial heterogeneity on the strain localization of fluid‐saturated cohesive soil modelled by a strain gradient‐dependent poro‐viscoplastic constitutive model. The effects of permeability and gradient parameters on the growth rate of the fluctuation were obtained by a linear instability analysis. Deformation behaviour of clay specimens modelled as a viscoplastic model with a second order strain gradient during shear was numerically analysed by a soil–water coupled FEM under both globally undrained and partially drained conditions. It was found that the deformation pattern and the stress–strain curve greatly depend on the permeability, the drainage conditions and the initial non‐homogeneous properties. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical analyses and modeling approaches to hydrodynamic characteristics in alluvial aquifer

This study is aimed at quantifying the difference in aquifer's response to recharge between some different locations in a fan aquifer and a delta aquifer for a preliminary study of revealing mechanisms of water transport in alluvial aquifer. The aquifer's response to recharge is statistically quantified with the two viewpoints: (1) timing and volume of recharge and (2) time length of aquifer's holding water. For the first point, a statistical model that links precipitation and groundwater level is introduced, and its parameters are identified using correlation analysis. Our results show that the recharge rate at the toe is higher than that at the apex and at the delta. For the second point, the concept of ‘memory effect’ of aquifer is adopted and quantified using the autocorrelation and spectral analyses. Our results show that the memory effect is longer at the toe of fan than at the apex, and thus, a temporary increase of water level has about five times as long‐term influence on subsequent water levels at the toe of the fan as at the apex. This study demonstrates that the statistical analyses and modeling of hydrological data are useful for characterizing aquifer's hydrodynamics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: limited deployment scenarios and beyond

Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.

Key policy insights

• A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research

• It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios

• Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature

• Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation