Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Instability processes of mesoscale features in the Kuroshio Extension reproduced through assimilation of altimeter data into a quasi-geostrophic model using the variational method

The Kuroshio, one of the most energetic western boundary currents in the world, shows variations in its mesoscale features and recirculation gyres, providing an excellent test case of interactions between the mesoscale field and Kuroshio Extension (KE) states. A three-layer quasi-geostrophic model was used to reconstruct flow fields continuous in time and the horizontal plane from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data based on the variational method. Compared with the solutions obtained by the nudging method, the present results proved that the variational solution was closer to the real field. In the assimilation period, 1993–1997, the baroclinic instability index (BII) was defined to be the phase shift from the uppermost layer to the lowest layer with mesoscale features. In the first half of the assimilation period, the KE took the transition from the elongated to contracted states, in which BII decreased gradually, as a consequence of the KE state shift. In the second half period, BII increased in the downstream region just west of the Shatsky Rise, in which baroclinic instability contributed to the final stage of the contracted state, and was followed by rapidly weakened instability as a trigger of the opposite transition from the contracted to elongated states. The wind-driven recirculation gyre played an active role on the KE transition in the first half period, although not in the second half.     

Hydrogeochemistry and groundwater salinization in an ephemeral coastal flood plain: Cap Bon,Tunisia

Abstract

The Wadi Al Ayn plain is a coastal system on the eastern coast of Cap Bon in northeastern Tunisia. The area is known for its intensive agriculture, which is based mainly on groundwater exploitation. The aim of this study is to identify the sources of groundwater salinization in the Wadi Al Ayn aquifer system and deduce the processes that drive the mineralization. Surface water and groundwater samples were taken and analysed for major ions and stable isotopes. The geochemical data were used to characterize and classify the water samples based on a variety of ion plots and diagrams. Stable isotopes are useful tools to help us understand recharge processes and to differentiate between salinity origins. The oilfield brines infiltrated from the sandy bed of Wadi Al Ayn comprise the main source of groundwater salinization in the central part of the plain, while seawater intrusion is mainly responsible for the increased salinity in the groundwater of the coastal part of the plain (at Daroufa).

Citation Chekirbane, A., Tsujimura, M., Kawachi, A., Isoda, H., Tarhouni, J., and Benalaya, A., 2013. Hydrogeochemistry and groundwater salinization in an ephemeral coastal flood plain: Cap Bon, Tunisia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1097–1110.     

Creating a diversified community: Community safety activity in Musashino City,Japan

The recent development of the third sector and the government encouragement of it have attracted the attention of many researchers. In particular, geographical research has examined how the third sector has been affected or changed by government policies or guidelines in recent political economic contexts, especially neo-liberalism and also neo-communitarianism. While much research has demonstrated that the relationship between the government and the third sector is becoming closer, and has considered the problematic impact on the sector or the community, recent studies have described a much more complicated relationship and its consequence. In response, this paper attempts to explore alternative effects of government encouragement at the local community level, through utilising empirical data on recent voluntary activity regarding community safety by the Voluntary Organisations for Crime Prevention Patrol (VOCPP) in Musashino City, a suburb of Tokyo in Japan. Before focusing on the case study in Musashino, the paper briefly outlines key geographical literature on the third sector, and also examines recent expectations of Japan’s third sector using Japanese political documents. Finally, the paper argues that the encouragement of government in fact has the potential to work as a ‘catalyst’ leading to a more independent third sector, with a geographically and organisationally less hierarchical structure, and may also assist in developing a more diversified community.     

Improving strategies with constraints regarding non-Gaussian statistics in a three-dimensional variational assimilation method

We assess validity of a Gaussian error assumption, the basic assumption in data assimilation theory, and propose two kinds of constraints regarding non-Gaussian statistics. In the mixed water region (MWR) off the east coast of Japan exhibiting complicated frontal structures, a probability density function (PDF) of subsurface temperature shows double peaks corresponding to the Kuroshio and Oyashio waters. The complicated frontal structures characterized by the temperature PDF sometimes cause large innovations, bringing about a non-Gaussianity of errors. It is also revealed that assimilated results with a standard three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) scheme have some issues in MWR, arising from the non-Gaussianity of errors. The Oyashio water sometimes becomes unrealistically cold. The double peaks seen in the observed temperature PDF are too smoothed. To improve the assimilated field in MWR, we introduce two kinds of constraints, J _c1 and J _c2, which model the observed temperature PDF. The constraint J _c1 prevents the unrealistically cold Oyashio water, and J _c2 intends to reproduce the double peaks. The assimilated fields are significantly improved by using these constraints. The constraint J _c1 effectively reduces the unrealistically cold Oyashio water. The double peaks in the observed temperature PDF are successfully reproduced by J _c2. In addition, not only subsurface temperature but also whole level temperature and salinity (T–S) fields are improved by adopting J _c1 and J _c2 to a multivariate 3DVAR scheme with vertical coupled T–S empirical orthogonal function modes.     

Andradite and andradite-grossular solid solutions in very low-grade regionally metamorphosed rocks in Southern New Zealand

Almost pure andradite and intermediate members of the andradite-grossular series (gros_40–49, and _47–54, py_0–3, alm_0–3, spess_0–2, hydrogarnet_0–3), often framboidal in habit, are widespread in metabasites including lavas, minor intrusions, and volcanic sandstones and breccias metamorphosed under prehnite-pumpellyite and pumpellyite-actinolite facies conditions, possibly extending into the zeolite facies. Coexisting phases include iron-rich epidotes (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=22–34), pumpellyite, prehnite, actinolite, and chlorite, electron microprobe analyses of which are given, as well as quartz, albite, and calcite. Zoisite (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=1–5) and iron-poor epidote (100 Fe*/Fe*+Al=11–18) occur in 2 rocks in pseudomorphs after plagioclase together with more iron-rich epidote, but not in close association with the garnets. Coexisting pumpellyite is iron-rich (FeO* 9–14%) in the prehnite-pumpellyite facies and iron-poor (FeO* 5%) in the pumpellyiteactinolite facies. Chlorites and actinolites vary widely and sympathetically in FeO/MgO+FeO ratio. Andradite is also described from a stilpnomelane-actinolite-hematite-bearing andradite quartzite of the pumpellyite-actinolite facies. Conditions of formation involved temperatures of 300 to 400 ° or less, at pressures up to a few kilobars. A wide range of oxygen fugacities is possible, but in the fluid phase was low. Grandite and chlorite are incompatible in the pumpellyite-actinolite and greenschist facies in the presence of quartz but the 2 minerals occur together in some pumpellyite-actinolite facies assemblages as a result of incomplete reaction and/or local deficiency in silica. In the greenschist facies the association is replaced by epidote-actinolite±hematite and sodic amphibole. Whereas at medium to high grades of metamorphism andradite and grandite are characteristic of skarns irrespective of , at very low grades they are found in mafic volcanic rocks and volcanogenic sediments as well as in certain cherty rocks of unusual composition, rodingites, and serpentinites, where was very low.     

Trans-boundary and in-country transport of air pollutants observed in Kobe,Japan by high frequent filter pack sampling method

The seasonal intensive sampling of gases and particulate matter in ambient air was conducted at the site established in urban area of Japan to study the seasonal difference of the temporal variation of gases and particulate matter concentrations in urban atmosphere as well as to illustrate the different transport regimes that impacts air pollutants. The sample was collected by the four-stage filter-pack method with 6-h interval for one week in four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter). The trans-boundary transport of air pollutants with high concentration was characteristically observed in the spring sampling. On the other hand, we could successfully detect the in-country transports of air pollutants in the summer sampling. Four-season’s intensive survey considered, we could show the characteristic transport of air pollutants to provide the episodic high concentration for ambient air in the urban area of Japan, and successfully illustrate the seasonal-dependent transport regimes to impact on air pollutants.     

Simple monitoring method for precaution of landslides watching tilting and water contents on slopes surface

A low-cost and simple monitoring method for early warning of landslides is proposed. To detect abnormal deformation of a slope, this method employs a tilt sensor in place of an extensometer on the slope surface. In order to examine the relevance of measuring rotation angle on a slope surface by tilt sensor, model tests were conducted, and rotation on the slope surface was observed together with slide displacement along the surface. The rotation data responded 30 min before failure in a model test, which could be useful as a signal for early warning. However, the behavior of rotation before failure varies from case to case, and thus, criteria to issue warning should be defined more carefully. For a model slope made of uniform loose sand, measurement of slide displacement along the slope surface is sensitive to failure at the toe, while the measurement of rotation on the slope surface is useful to detect the development of progressive failure upward along the slope. Wireless sensor units with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor were also examined on a real slope in Kobe City, and a long-term monitoring was attempted. A simple but possible way to define the criteria of judgment to issue warning can be proposed based on combination of data obtained by the tilt sensors and volumetric water content sensors.