On the causes of glacial inception at 116 kaBP

To explore processes involved in glacial inception at 116 kaBP, the response of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to changes in lower boundary conditions is investigated. Two 116 kaBP experiments are conducted to examine the importance of sea surface conditions (sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution): one with the present-day sea surface conditions, and the other with 116 kaBP sea surface conditions. These two different sea surface conditions are obtained from simulations using an earth system climate model of intermediate complexity. Perennial snow cover occurred over the Canadian Archipelago under 116 kaBP orbital and CO₂ forcing with present-day "warm" sea surface conditions, and further expanded over northeastern Canada when 116 kaBP "cool" sea surface conditions were applied. The net positive accumulation in northeastern Canada, with little in Alaska, is in good agreement with geological records. Two additional 116 kaBP experiments are conducted to examine the combined importance of sea surface conditions and land surface conditions (vegetation): one with the present-day sea surface and modified land surface conditions, and the other with 116 kaBP sea surface and modified land surface conditions. Modifying vegetation, based on cooling during summer induced by 116 kaBP sea surface conditions, leads to much larger areas of perennial snow cover. Only when 116 kaBP sea surface conditions are applied, is a realistic global net snow accumulation rate obtained. Contrary to the earlier ice age hypothesis, our results suggest that the capturing of glacial inception at 116 kaBP requires the use of "cooler" sea surface conditions than those of the present climate. Also, the large impact of vegetation change on climate suggests that the inclusion of the vegetation feedback is important for model validation, at least, in this particular period of Earth history.     

Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM

The finding that surface warming over the Arctic exceeds that over the rest of the world under global warming is a robust feature among general circulation models (GCMs). While various mechanisms have been proposed, quantifying their relative contributions is an important task in order to understand model behavior. Here we apply a recently proposed feedback analysis technique to an atmosphere–ocean GCM under two and four times CO₂ concentrations which approximately lead to seasonally and annually sea ice-free climates. The contribution of feedbacks to Arctic temperature change is investigated. The surface warming in the Arctic is contributed by albedo, water vapour and large-scale condensation feedbacks and reduced by the evaporative cooling feedback. The surface warming contrast between the Arctic and the global averages (AA) is maintained by albedo and evaporative cooling feedbacks. The latter contributes to AA predominantly by cooling the low latitudes more than the Arctic. Latent heat transport into the Arctic increases and hence evaporative cooling plus large-scale condensation feedback contributes positively to AA. On the other hand, dry-static energy transport into the Arctic decreases and hence dynamical heating feedback contributes negatively to AA. An important contribution is thus made via changes in hydrological cycle and not via the ‘dry’ heat transport process. A larger response near the surface than aloft in the Arctic is maintained by the albedo, water vapour, and dynamical heating feedbacks, in which the albedo and water vapour feedbacks contribute through warming the surface more than aloft, and the dynamical heating feedback contributes by cooling aloft more than the surface. In our experiments, ocean and sea ice dynamics play a secondary role. It is shown that a different level of CO₂ increase introduces a latitudinal and seasonal difference into the feedbacks.     

Gamma-Ray Line Observations of the 2000 July 14 Flare and SEP Impact on the Earth

The HXS and GRS detectors on Yohkoh observed the 14 July 2000, X5.7 flare, beginning at ∼ 10:20 UT, ∼ 4 min before the peak in soft X-rays. The hard X-rays and γ-rays peaked ∼ 3 min later at ∼ 10:27 UT. Solar γ-ray emission lasted until ∼ 10:40 UT. Impact of high-energy ions at the Sun is revealed by the γ-ray lines from neutron capture, annihilation radiation and de-excitation that are visible above the bremsstrahlung continuum. From measurement of these lines we find that the flare-averaged spectrum of accelerated protons is consistent with a power law ge10 MeV with index 3.14±0.15 and flux 1.1×10³² protons MeV⁻¹ at 10 MeV. We estimate that there were ∼1.5×10³⁰ erg in accelerated ions if the power law extended without a break down to 1 MeV; this is about 1% of the energy in electrons > 20 keV from measurements of the hard X-rays. We find no evidence for spectral hardening in the hard X-rays that has been suggested as a predictor for the occurrence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. This was the third largest proton event above 10 MeV since 1976. The GRS and HXS also observed γ-ray lines and continuum produced by the impact of SEP on the Earth's atmosphere beginning about 13 UT on 14 July. These measurements show that the SEP spectrum softened considerably over the next 24 hours. We compare these measurements with proton measurements in space.     

YOHKOH/WBS Recalibration and a Comprehensive Catalogue of Solar Flares Observed by YOHKOH SXT, HXT and WBS Instruments

The flare catalogue of the Yohkoh mission is compiled and linked to this article as an electronic supplement. For showing flare characteristics over wide energy range concisely, we provide the images of Hard X-ray Telescope (HXT) and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT), and the spectra of Hard X-ray Spectrometer (HXS) and Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) with the Wide Band Spectrometer (WBS) time profiles. The energy versus pulse height (PH) data channels in HXS and GRS are re-calibrated by using the data of the whole mission period. Secular gain changes are recognized in HXS, and the characteristics of power-law flare spectra simultaneously observed by HXT and HXS confirms the trend. The GRS gains are different for the flare observations during the previous maximum and for the current maximum. The total of 33 γ -ray events are observed, and for 12 of them γ-ray flare spectra are obtained. Electronic supplementary material to this article is available at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models

To obtain physical insights into the response and feedback of low clouds (C _l ) to global warming, ensemble 4?×?CO₂ experiments were carried out with two climate models, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) versions 3.2 and 5. For quadrupling CO₂, tropical-mean C _l decreases, and hence, acts as positive feedback in MIROC3, whereas it increases and serves as negative feedback in MIROC5. Three time scales of tropical-mean C _l change were identified—an initial adjustment without change in the global-mean surface air temperature, a slow response emerging after 10–20?years, and a fast response in between. The two models share common features for the former two changes in which C _l decreases. The slow response reflects the variability of C _l associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation in the control integration, and may therefore be constrained by observations. However, the fast response is opposite in the two models and dominates the total response of C _l . Its sign is determined by a subtle residual of the C _l increase and decrease over the ascending and subsidence regions, respectively. The regional C _l increase is consistent with a more frequent occurrence of a stable condition, and vice versa, as measured by lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). The above frequency change in LTS is similarly found in six other climate models despite a large difference in both the mean and the changes in the low-cloud fraction for a given LTS. This suggests that the response of the thermodynamic constraint for C _l to increasing CO₂ concentrations is a robust part of the climate change.     

Gamma-ray observations from Hinotori

Some interesting results on gamma-ray line emission and its time profiles observed by Hinotori are presented. Possible explanations of gamma-ray line and hard X-ray emissions for the impulsive and gradual flares are discussed. Relationship between the gamma-ray line emission and acceleration and escape of the solar particles is also studied.     

Gamma-ray bursts observed from the Hinotori satellite

During February, 1981 and June, 1982 the gamma-ray and the hard X-ray spectrometers on the Hinotori satellite observed four gamma-ray bursts on 28 February, 21 July, 1981, 26 February and 13 March, 1982. These gamma-ray bursts were simultaneously observed by other satellites. The time histories and energy spectra are shown for these gamma-ray bursts, and the burst sizes (erg cm^–2) are estimated. Two possible source locations for the burst of 21 July, 1981 are roughly determined from arrival time delays between two pairs of satellites, PVO-Hinotori and ISEE-3-Hinotori. The weak gamma-ray line peak structure around 1.8 MeV was observed for the burst of 13 March, 1982. The line could be interpreted in terms of gravitationally redshifted neutron capture line at 2.22 MeV.     

Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability

The tasks of providing multi-decadal climate projections and seasonal plus sub-seasonal climate predictions are of significant societal interest and pose major scientific challenges. An outline is presented of the challenges posed by, and the approaches adopted to, tracing the possible evolution of the climate system on these various time-scales. First an overview is provided of the nature of the climate system’s natural internal variations and the uncertainty arising from the complexity and non-linearity of the system. Thereafter consideration is given sequentially to the range of extant approaches adopted to study and derive multi-decadal climate projections, seasonal predictions, and significant sub-seasonal weather phenomena. For each of these three time-scales novel results are presented that indicate the nature (and limitations) of the models used to forecast the evolution, and illustrate the techniques adopted to reduce or cope with the forecast uncertainty. In particular, the contributions (i) appear to exemplify that in simple climate models uncertainties in radiative forcing outweigh uncertainties associated with ocean models, (ii) examine forecast skills for a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system, and (iii) suggest that long-lived weather phenomena can help shape intra-seasonal climate variability. Finally, it is argued, that co-consideration of all these scales can enhance our understanding of the challenges associated with uncertainties in climate prediction.