混合GM(1,1)模型预报季节性时间序列精度的方法探讨

灰色系统已被成功用于工程、经济、物理控制等许多领域。然而在预报具有季节性的时间序列时，直接应用GM(1，1)灰色模型往往精度不高。因为GM(1，1)灰色模型只能反映时间序列的总体变化趋势，不能很好反映其季节性波动变化的具体特征。因此，作者提出运用“滑动平均去季节性波动”与GM(1，1)混合建模的方法预报具有季节特征的时间序列。并以水文地质系统中地下水位预报和安装在混凝土中的测缝计测得的建筑物形变量为一组时间序列，基于均方差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分误差三个精度准则，比较了此方法与其它灰色建模法的结果。结果表明，此方法不仅能反映时间序列的总体变化趋势，而且能客观反映其波动变化的具体特征，有效提高了预报精度，减少了建模的复杂度。     

全站仪固定样地测树原理及精度分析

本文提出应用全站仪在森林固定样地中测树 ,全站仪与PC—E5 0 0袖珍计算机或PDA连接 ,可自动测量每一棵树的树高、胸径或任一直径、树心三维坐标、冠幅等。其测量树高的精度可达 1 / 1 4 0 0 ,测量直径的精度可达 1 / 2 0 0 ,树心平面坐标定位精度可达 1 5mm ,冠幅测量可达 1 / 1 30 0 0精度 ,均高于测树的需要精度。特别重复实验了任意高处直径的测量 ,与轮尺测量的结果最大差 2 1mm ,最小差 1 6mm。     

数字化钻孔体应变干扰机理及异常分析

对山东省钻孔体应变仪数字化观测资料的干扰及突跳异常进行了分析、讨论，认为：(1)山东省四个台站的钻孔体应变观测资料不同程度地受降雨、地下水位、气压、温度的影响，其中，烟台台体应变观测受到的干扰最多，影响最显，主要与其钻孔的地质条件有关。(2)长清台体应变观测资料中出现的几次突跳异常是由井孔内破碎带处掉下的岩块引起的变化。     

中国地震台网、全球地震台网地震目录数据库和震相数据库

地震目录和震相数据在地震学研究中具有重要意义，本文介绍了中国地震台网、全球地震台网地震目录数据库和震相数据库的内容和查询使用方法。     

Design of Conceptual Model in Digital Map Database

The components of map information are analyzed theoretically in this paper ,and the map information includes mainly the spatial information,attributive information and temporal characteristics information.Then the digital map entity is defined according to construction characteristics of the map information.Finally,on the basis of the analyses of the construction characteristics of digital map entity and present conceptual model of digital map database,an abstracted conceptual model of digital map database is presented.And the Normal Form theory of relational database is discussed particularly.     

多道瞬态瑞雷波勘探应用研究

在层状介质中,瑞雷波具有频散特性.瑞雷波波速主要与其穿透深度范围内的介质物理性质有关.利用瑞雷波波速与剪切波波速的相关性可以进行岩土力学参数测试,但传统的瑞雷波勘探方法有一定的局限性.本文发展了多道瞬态瑞雷波勘探技术,从测量仪器选择、观测系统设计、数据采集与处理等方面进行了研究,并在岩土工程勘察和地基加固处理效果评价中取得了良好的应用效果.     

四川广元—朝天地区推覆构造研究

根据1：5万区域地质调查资料和野外重点地段的解剖研究，将广元－朝天地区推覆构造划分为四个推覆构造带，并论述了该区推覆构造的特征及其变形模式；提出了区内滑覆是由推覆形成的，其发展方向为由北西向南东，扩展方式为前展式。探讨了本区推覆构造的形成演化机制。     

伊利石多型——斑岩铜矿化的指示剂

德兴矿区内普遍存在伊利石 ,其多型特征表明 ,矿化围岩与区域围岩 (>2km)中伊利石的矿物结构与矿化流体有关。经长期埋藏变质作用 ,区域围岩中形成了结晶程度完好的 2M1伊利石 ,K櫣ｂｌｅｒ指数为 0 .1 6°,Ir=1 ,无膨胀层 ,是浅变质作用的产物。与发育热液成因 1M伊利石的花岗闪长斑岩一样 ,矿化围岩发育了具有较高K櫣ｂｌｅｒ指数 (平均值为 0 .5 5°)、含少量的膨胀层 (1 %～ 5 % )、1M型伊利石 ,它是热液流体作用下伊 /蒙矿物逆向退化的结果 ,且受热液流体量及水 /岩比制约。在此 ,斑岩铜矿中伊利石多型可能成为有效的矿化晕指示剂。     

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree for Lithology Identification with Well Logs: A Case Study of Zhaoxian Gold Deposit,Shandong Peninsula,China

Natural Resources Research - Identifying lithology from well logs is an important step in deep prospecting and resource estimation. Various machine learning algorithms have been adopted to identify...     

Paleo-oil-Water Contact and Present-Day Gas-Water Contact： Implication for Evolution History of Puguang Gas Field, Sichuan Basin, China

The Puguang (普光) gas field is the largest gas field found in marine carbonate in China.The Puguang gas field experienced complicated evolution history from paleo-oil pool to gas pool.The purpose of this article is to reveal the evolution history of Puguang gas field through systematic study on the relationship between paleo-oil-water contact (POWC) and present-day gas-water contact (PGWC).POWC was recognized by observing the change of relative content of residual solid bitumen in the cores,and PGWC was observed using log and drilling stem test data.Two types of relationship between POWC and PGWC were observed in the Puguang gas field:POWC is above PGWC,and POWC is below PGWC.The former is normal as oil cracking may cause gas-water contact to move downward.The latter can be interpreted by lateral gas re-migration and re-accumulation caused by changes in structural configuration.The relationship between POWC and PGWC suggests that during oil charge,the southwestern and northwestern parts of the Puguang gas field were structurally lower than the northeastern and southeastern parts.Thrusting from Xuefengshan (雪峰山) since Yanshanian movement and from Dabashan (大巴山) since Himalayan movement resulted in the relative uplift of the southwestern and northwestern parts of the Puguang structure,which significantly changed the structural configuration.Based on the paleo-structure discussed in this article,the most probable migration directions of paleo-oil were from the northwest to the southeast and from the southwest to the northeast.Consequently,the evolution history of the Puguang gas field can be divided into three stages,namely,oil charging (200-170 Ma),cracking oil to gas (155-120 Ma),and gas pool adjustment (1200-0Ma).