多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分

滑坡的时间-位移曲线一般具有3个阶段特征,即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段,不同演化阶段加速度具有不同的变化特点.目前往往是依据对加速度曲线特征的分析来人为划分演化阶段,缺少相应的理论支持和定量计算.针对上述问题,选取月降雨量、月库水位高程变化量对滑坡的累计位移建立多因素的时间序列预测模型.然后利用Chow分割点检验理论,以所建模型中F和LR统计量最大值点作为分割点对滑坡演化阶段进行划分.以新滩滑坡和三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,利用累计位移、降雨及库水位变化数据进行计算验证.结果表明,对多元时间序列模型进行Chow分割点检验可对滑坡的演化阶段进行准确划分,为滑坡的临滑预警预报提供重要判据.      

南沙群岛海域长腹剑水蚤(Oithona spp.)的种类组成、数量分布及其与环境因子的关系

中小型桡足类是海洋食物网中重要的中间环节,在碳循环里细菌碳和藻类碳向高营养级转化的过程中扮演重要角色。本文通过分析2013年3—4月、6—7月、9—10月和11—12月南沙群岛海域(111°30′E—112°30′E,4°30′N—11°30′N)的生态环境调查数据,对长腹剑水蚤属(Oithona)的种类组成、数量分布及其与环境因子的关系进行了研究。结果表明:(1)南沙群岛海域共出现长腹剑水蚤15种(包括1个未定种),其中线长腹水蚤(Oithona linearis)、粗长腹剑水蚤(O.robusta)和长刺长腹剑水蚤(O.longispina)为南沙群岛海域首次记录,长腹剑水蚤属种类组成沿水深变化的现象较为明显,该属虽然在南沙群岛海域广泛分布,但单种的出现频率较低,其种类出现的季节性较强;(2)南沙群岛海域的长腹剑水蚤可以划分为常见广布组群Ⅰ和低频组群Ⅱ;(3)长腹剑水蚤年均栖息密度为30ind./m3,季节变化呈单峰型,秋季最高、冬季最低,高数量区主要出现在受南沙西部沿岸流和东部沿岸流影响的近岸海域;(4)在0—750m水深范围内,长腹剑水蚤数量沿水深梯度的垂直变化明显,呈现由浅至深数量明显减少的趋势,长腹剑水蚤主要集中分布在0—75m的水层中,75—500m数量急剧降低至最低后,在500—750m基本维持不变;(5)GAM分析表明,纬度、海水温度、盐度和叶绿素a浓度对长腹剑水蚤数量均有影响,以纬度的影响最为显著,其中长腹剑水蚤属最适温度为28.6—29.2℃,最适盐度为32.6—33.2,最适叶绿素a浓度为5—10μg/L;(6)长腹剑水蚤属更适栖息于低温和低盐,且受沿岸流影响的环境中。因此,其数量分布的季节变化与季风驱动的沿岸流势力强弱密切相关。     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.     

Risk management study on impulse waves generated by Hongyanzi landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir of China on June 24, 2015

On June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi slope located in Wushan County of the Three Gorges Reservoir collapsed, generating 5–6-m-high impulse waves, which overturned 13 boats, killed 2 persons, and injured 4 persons. It is the second incident of landslide-generated impulse waves since the 175-m experimental impoundment in 2008. The emergency investigation shows that Hongyanzi landslide is a bedding soil landslide with a volume of 23?×?10⁴ m³ induced by a series of triggering factors such as rainfall, flooding upstream, and reservoir drawdown. The nonlinear Boussinesq water wave model is used to reproduce the impulse waves generated by the landslide of June 24th. The numerical simulation results suggest that the wave propagation process was influenced by the T-shaped geomorphic conditions of river valley, and the coastal areas in the county seat were the major wave-affected areas, which is opposite to the landslide. The numerical wave process accord well with the observed incident, and the investigation values were in good agreement with the calculated values. Moreover, the worst-case scenario of the 7?×?10⁴ m³ deformation mass beside Hongyanzi landslide is potential to generate impulse waves, which was predicted with the same numerical model. This adjacent deformation mass will probably generate impulse waves with maximum height and run-up of 2.2 and 2.0 m, respectively, and only a very few areas in the water course had waves rising to a height of 1 m or above. The research results provide a technical basis for emergency disposal to Hongyanzi landslide and navigation restriction in Wushan waterway. More importantly, it pushes the risk management of the navigation based on the impulse wave generated by landslide. It is advised that the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs around the world should put more efforts in performing special surveys and studies on the potential hazards associated with landslide-generated impulse waves.     

Characterization,dissolution and solubility of the hydroxypyromorphite–hydroxyapatite solid solution [(Pb<Subscript>x</Subscript>Ca<Subscript>1−x</Subscript>)<Subscript>5</Subscript>(PO<Subscript>4</Subscript>)<Subscript>3</Subscript>OH] at 25 °C and pH 2–9

Background

The interaction between Ca-HAP and Pb²⁺ solution can result in the formation of a hydroxyapatite–hydroxypyromorphite solid solution [(Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH)], which can greatly affect the transport and distribution of toxic Pb in water, rock and soil. Therefore, it’s necessary to know the physicochemical properties of (Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH), predominantly its thermodynamic solubility and stability in aqueous solution. Nevertheless, no experiment on the dissolution and related thermodynamic data has been reported.

Results

Dissolution of the hydroxypyromorphite–hydroxyapatite solid solution [(Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH)] in aqueous solution at 25 °C was experimentally studied. The aqueous concentrations were greatly affected by the Pb/(Pb + Ca) molar ratios (X_Pb) of the solids. For the solids with high X_Pb [(Pb_0.89Ca_0.11)₅(PO₄)₃OH], the aqueous Pb²⁺ concentrations increased rapidly with time and reached a peak value after 240–720 h dissolution, and then decreased gradually and reached a stable state after 5040 h dissolution. For the solids with low X_Pb (0.00–0.80), the aqueous Pb²⁺ concentrations increased quickly with time and reached a peak value after 1–12 h dissolution, and then decreased gradually and attained a stable state after 720–2160 h dissolution.

Conclusions

The dissolution process of the solids with high X_Pb (0.89–1.00) was different from that of the solids with low X_Pb (0.00–0.80). The average K _sp values were estimated to be 10^?80.77±0.20 (10^?80.57–10^?80.96) for hydroxypyromorphite [Pb₅(PO₄)₃OH] and 10^?58.38±0.07 (10^?58.31–10^?58.46) for calcium hydroxyapatite [Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH]. The Gibbs free energies of formation (ΔG _f ^o ) were determined to be ?3796.71 and ?6314.63 kJ/mol, respectively. The solubility decreased with the increasing Pb/(Pb + Ca) molar ratios (X_Pb) of (Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH). For the dissolution at 25 °C with an initial pH of 2.00, the experimental data plotted on the Lippmann diagram showed that the solid solution (Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH) dissolved stoichiometrically at the early stage of dissolution and moved gradually up to the Lippmann solutus curve and the saturation curve for Pb₅(PO₄)₃OH, and then the data points moved along the Lippmann solutus curve from right to left. The Pb-rich (Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃(OH) was in equilibrium with the Ca-rich aqueous solution.

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Graphical abstractLippmann diagrams for dissolution of the hydroxypyromorphite–hydroxyapatite solid solution [(Pb_xCa_1?x)₅(PO₄)₃OH] at 25??C and an initial pH of 2.00.

     

Iron Reduction Along an Inundation Gradient in a Tidal Sedge (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyperus malaccensis</Emphasis>) Marsh: the Rates,Pathways, and Contributions to Anaerobic Organic Matter Mineralization

Incubation experiments were adopted to characterize the rates and pathways of iron reduction and the contributions to anaerobic organic matter mineralization in the upper 0–5 cm of sediments along a landscape-scale inundation gradient in tidal marsh sediments in the Min River Estuary, Southeast China. Similar sediment characteristics, single-species vegetation, varied biomass and bioturbation, distinct porewater pH, redox potential, and electrical conductivity values have resulted in a unique ecogeochemical zonation along the inundation gradient. Decreases in solid-phase Fe(III) and increases in nonsulfidic Fe(II) and iron sulfide were observed in a seaward direction. Porewater Fe²⁺ was only detected in the upland area. High rates of iron reduction were observed in incubation jars, with significant accumulations of nonsulfidic Fe(II), moderate accumulations of iron sulfides, and negligible accumulations of porewater Fe²⁺. Most of the iron reduction was microbially mediated rather than coupled to reduced sulfides. Microbial iron reduction accounted for 20–89 % of the anaerobic organic matter mineralization along the inundation gradient. The rate and dominance of microbial iron reduction generally decreased in a seaward direction. The contributions of microbial iron reduction to anaerobic organic matter mineralization depended on the concentrations of bioavailable Fe(III), the spatial distribution of which was significantly related to tidal inundation. Our results clearly showed that microbial iron reduction in the upper sediments along the gradient is highly dependent on spatial scales controlled primarily by tidal inundation.     

Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide

Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.     

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.     

Strength criterion for cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions

By incorporating the fabric effect and Lode’s angle dependence into the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, a strength criterion for cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions was proposed. The obtained criterion has only three material parameters which can be specified by conventional triaxial tests. The formula to calculate the friction angle under any loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio condition was deduced, and the influence of the degree of the cross-anisotropy was quantified. The friction angles of sand in triaxial, true triaxial, and hollow cylinder torsional shear tests were obtained, and a parametric analysis was used to detect the varying characteristics. The friction angle becomes smaller when the major principal stress changes from perpendicular to parallel to the bedding plane. The loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio are unrelated in true triaxial tests, and their influences on the friction angle can be well captured by the proposed criterion. In hollow cylinder torsional shear tests with the same internal and external pressures, the loading direction and intermediate principal stress ratio are related. This property results in a lower friction angle in the hollow cylinder torsional shear test than that in the true triaxial test under the same intermediate principal stress ratio condition. By comparing the calculated friction angle with the experimental results under various loading conditions (e.g., triaxial, true triaxial, and hollow cylinder torsional shear test), the proposed criterion was verified to be able to characterize the shear strength of cross-anisotropic sand under general stress conditions.