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171.
    
Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
172.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
173.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - We extend the literature on the effect of rare disaster risks on commodities by examining the effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on crude...  相似文献   
174.
In this study, we investigate a long-term modulation in the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall with the subsequent Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The two monsoon rainfall time series are significantly correlated at 0.3 at the 99 % confidence level. However, the relationship weakens during the 1932–1966 period, with the inter-monsoon correlation for the period falling below statistical significance. We find that this modulation is consistent with a breakdown of the typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on sea surface temperature in the northern region of Australia, during this period. In addition, a change in the relative influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming sea surface temperature anomalies on the Australian summer monsoon rainfall is also apparent across different time periods.  相似文献   
175.
Coastal zone is associated with several geomorphic features of erosional and depositional nature, be sides the broad geologic information. The area around Coondapur of south Kanara district, Karnataka, possesses all the major characteristics of coastal zone and these are extractable through intergated remotely sensed data namely Landsat-1 MSS imagery, Salyut-7 KATE space photograph and aerial photographs. The visual interpretation is carried out with developing remote sensing keys to decipher major geomorphic-geologic information like: spit, double spit, beach deposit, alluvium, levee deposit, la|terite and other rock types. It is concluded that the major geomorphic-geologic characteristics as well as subdeltaic drainage, soil erosoin are obtained through space borne data. The aerial photographs provide the detailed geomorphic and geologic information.  相似文献   
176.
The ability to deduce exhumation mechanisms from thermochronological data is hampered by the fact that assumptions on the thermal state of the lithosphere have to be made. Additional argumentation is generally required to discriminate between erosion-controlled and tectonically induced exhumation. This problem can be overcome by studying the spatial distribution of zircon and apatite (U-Th)/He and fission track data. In this work the variation of four different low temperature isotopic systems generating age trends along a sampling line is used to infer mechanisms of Quaternary exhumation in the Central High Himalayan Metamorphic Belt. Observed zircon age trends with southwards increasing cooling ages (from 0.5 to 1.7 Ma) are attributed to tectonically induced exhumation. The uniform apatite cooling ages clustered c. 0.5 Ma are attributed to erosion.  相似文献   
177.
178.
Magnetotelluric studies over the Shillong plateau and lower Brahmaputra sediments have delineated the Dauki fault as a NE–SW striking thrust zone with a dip angle of about 30°, along which the low resistivity layer of Bengal sediments and the underlying oceanic crust subduct to the northwest. At present, about 50 km length of these sequences has subducted beneath the Shillong plateau and is traced up to depth of about 40 km. Another thrust zone, sub parallel to the Dauki thrust is observed in the lower Brahmaputra valley, corresponding to the Brahmaputra fault. This is interpreted to be an intracratonic thrust within the Indian plate. These results suggest that a large fraction of the seismicity over the Shillong plateau is associated with the NE–SW striking Dauki thrust, contrary to the earlier belief that this fault zone is relatively aseismic. The present studies also suggest that the Shillong plateau and the adjoining sedimentary layers act as a supracrustal block, not directly participating in the subduction process. However in response to the compressive tectonic forces generated by the Himalayan and Indo-Burman subduction processes the Shillong plateau, together with the Brahmaputra sediments overlying the Indian crust drift eastwards relative to the Bengal sediments along the surface expression of the Dauki fault leading to a dextral strike slip movement. We thus propose that the NE Indian crust responds to the compressive forces differently at different depths, governed by the rheological considerations. At deeper levels the crustal readjustments take place through the subduction along the Dauki and Brahmaputra thrusts where as, at the shallow levels the relative deformability of the supracrustal blocks have a strong influence on the tectonics, leading to the strike slip mechanism along the surface expression of the Dauki fault.  相似文献   
179.
180.
The results of experiments on a 40 cm × 40 cm grate-discharge ball mill have been analysed for variation of mill hold-up weight of solids with solids feed rate, weight percent solids, mean feed particle size, material specific gravity and work-index. It is shown that mill hold-up weight is independent of the material specific gravity and mean feed particle size, and it varies linearly with solids feed rate and weight percent solids, at least over the range of practical interest. The variations in the transport behaviour of different materials have been attributed to the differences in the size distribution of the mill hold-up solids. It is shown that work-index can be used as the material characteristic for the development of an empirical correlation. Variation of mean residence time of solids with solids feed rate and weight-percent solids is also discussed.  相似文献   
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