Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

A classification system for the assessment of slope stability of terrains along highway routes in Jordan

 The establishment of comprehensive development plans, in general, and the proper selection of highway routes, in particular, require an assessment of landslides or instability hazards in the project sites. The frequent landslides that occurred along the routes of major highways in Jordan, and particularly along the Amman-Na'ur-Dead Sea highway and Irbid-Jerash-Amman highway, have substantially increased the cost of construction and caused a considerable delay in the completion of work. The study of many landslides that occurred in the last 25 years along the highway routes and in the sites of some major civil engineering projects in Jordan has led to the recognition of major factors that affect the stability of slopes, and thus the safety and economics of these projects. The geological formation, structural features, topographic characteristics, geometry, and climatic conditions were adopted as the basis for the classification of terrains in terms of their stability. Each factor has been assigned a rating to indicate its relative contribution to the overall stability according to engineering judgment and past experience. The areas have been classified into 5 groups according to their total stability rate. The simplicity, comprehensiveness, and accuracy are the main characteristics of the proposed classification. Its significance stems from its helpfulness as a guide to the geotechnical and highway engineers in assessing the overall stability of the alternative routes of proposed highway projects. Received: 3 December 1996 · Accepted: 29 April 1997     

Mechanisms for the rigid rotation of coronal holes

We show that the rotation of coronal holes can be understood in terms of a current-free model of the coronal magnetic field, in which holes are the footpoint locations of open field lines. The coronal field is determined as a function of time by matching its radial component to the photospheric flux distribution, whose evolution is simulated including differential rotation, supergranular diffusion, and meridional flow. We find that ongoing field-line reconnection allows the holes to rotate quasi-rigidly with their outer-coronal extensions, until their boundaries become constrained by the neutral line of the photospheric field as it winds up to form stripes of alternating magnetic polarity. This wind-up may be significantly retarded by a strong axisymmetric field component which forces the neutral line to low latitudes; it is also gradually halted by the cross-latitudinal transport of flux via supergranular diffusion and a poleward bulk flow. We conclude that a strong axisymmetric field component is responsible for the prolonged rigid rotation of large meridional holes during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle, but that diffusion and flow determine the less rigid rotation observed near sunspot maximum, when the holes corotate with their confining polarity stripes.     

Stress Transfer During Pressure Solution Compression of Rigidly Coupled Axisymmetric Asperities Pressed Against a Flat Semi-Infinite Solid

In a previous work, we developed a numerical model of compression by pressure solution (PS) of a single axisymmetric asperity pressed against a flat semi-infinite solid. The dissolution rate at any point along the contact and at any time t was determined by (1) computing the normal stress distribution from the current shape of the asperity, and (2) solving the diffusion equation inside the fluid-saturated solid-solid interface, including local dissolution source terms corresponding to the stress field previously determined. The change in shape of the asperity during an infinitesimal time interval δt can then be calculated and the entire procedure repeated as many times as desired. Our results showed that, as the contact flattens and grows during PS, the initial elastic deformation is partially relaxed and the stress transferred from the contact center to the edge. Our goal in the present paper is to demonstrate that, among a population of asperities, stress can also be transferred from one contact to another and that the overall compaction rate can be significantly affected by this process. For this purpose we extended our previous numerical model to simulate PS of two rigidly coupled spherical asperities simultaneously pressed against a flat semi-infinite solid. We considered two end-member cases: 1) transfer of stress to a newly created, not initially present contact, 2) transfer of stress between asperities with different sizes. In both cases, stress was transferred from the most stressed asperity to the least, and, the overall PS displacement rate was reduced. Thus, formation of new contacts and heterogeneous distribution of asperity sizes, which are both expected to exist in rough fractures with self-affine aperture or in heterogeneous granular materials with variable grain-packing geometry, may significantly slow down PS creep compaction.     

Physical disturbance creates bacterial dominance of benthic biological communities in tropical deltaic environments of the Gulf of Papua

Unlike many reactive continental shelf mud deposits in temperate regions, bacteria and microfauna rather than macrofauna typically dominate benthic biomass and activities over large areas of the Gulf of Papua (GoP) deltaic complex, Papua New Guinea. During mid NW monsoon periods (Jan–Feb), macrofaunal densities at Gulf stations were relatively low (), large macroinfauna were absent (upper 25 cm), and small (), surface deposit-feeding polychaetes and tubiculous amphipods were dominant, reflecting a frequently destabilized seabed and high sedimentation/erosion rates. Although frequent physical disturbance generally inhibits development of macrobenthic communities, some regions of the Gulf deposits are periodically colonized and extensively bioturbated during quiescent periods, as shown by preserved biogenic sedimentary structures. Bacterial inventories integrated over the top 20 cm were extremely variable within each sub region of the clinoform complex. A possible bimodal pattern with bathymetric depth and distance offshore may occur: lowest-inventories within the sandy, proximal Fly River delta, an open Gulf inner topset zone (10–20 m) having sites of relatively high inventories, an open Gulf mid-topset region with intermediate values and less extreme variation, and the outer topset—upper foreset zone (40–50 m) where highest values are attained (). Various measures of microbial activity, including measures proportional to the cellular rRNA content and the proportion of dividing cells, indicate extremely productive populations over the upper 1-m of the seabed throughout the Gulf of Papua region. Bacterial biomass (0–20 cm) including data of Alongi et al. (1991, 1992, 1995) varied from a low of in intertidal mud banks to a high of in the topset—foreset zone. Macrofaunal biomass did not exceed in any sampled region, ranging from 0.009±0 to with no obvious correlation with bathymetric depth (1–63 m). Meiofaunal biomass was generally an order of magnitude lower than macrofaunal biomass. Relatively elevated bacterial biomass and high turnover rates are consistent with high measured rates of benthic remineralization, presumably reflecting the rapid response time of bacteria to physical reworking, the associated entrainment of organic substrate, and flushing of metabolites. Solute exchange is also enhanced below the directly mixed surface region, possibly producing ‘far field’ stimulation of microbes in underlying deposits. Physical reworking and reoxidation of sediments between 10 and 50 m water depth maintain suboxic, nonsulfidic conditions in the upper 0.5–1 m despite active microbial communities and high benthic remineralization rates.     

Mineralogy,petrology, chronology,and exposure history of the Chelyabinsk meteorite and parent body

Three masses of the Chelyabinsk meteorite have been studied with a wide range of analytical techniques to understand the mineralogical variation and thermal history of the Chelyabinsk parent body. The samples exhibit little to no postentry oxidation via Mössbauer and Raman spectroscopy indicating their fresh character, but despite the rapid collection and care of handling some low levels of terrestrial contamination did nonetheless result. Detailed studies show three distinct lithologies, indicative of a genomict breccia. A light‐colored lithology is LL5 material that has experienced thermal metamorphism and subsequent shock at levels near S4. The second lithology is a shock‐darkened LL5 material in which the darkening is caused by melt and metal‐troilite veins along grain boundaries. The third lithology is an impact melt breccia that formed at high temperatures (~1600 °C), and it experienced rapid cooling and degassing of S₂ gas. Portions of light and dark lithologies from Chel‐101, and the impact melt breccias (Chel‐102 and Chel‐103) were prepared and analyzed for Rb‐Sr, Sm‐Nd, and Ar‐Ar dating. When combined with results from other studies and chronometers, at least eight impact events (e.g., ~4.53 Ga, ~4.45 Ga, ~3.73 Ga, ~2.81 Ga, ~1.46 Ga, ~852 Ma, ~312 Ma, and ~27 Ma) are clearly identified for Chelyabinsk, indicating a complex history of impacts and heating events. Finally, noble gases yield young cosmic ray exposure ages, near 1 Ma. These young ages, together with the absence of measurable cosmogenic derived Sm and Cr, indicate that Chelyabinsk may have been derived from a recent breakup event on an NEO of LL chondrite composition.     

On the radio emission of Callisto

A model of an icy surface and interior for Callisto gives a predicted thermal radio emission in good agreement with experimental radio astronomical data. The radio brightness temperature of an icy surface will not depend on wavelength. This may be a method to test icy surface hypotheses. The brightness temperatures of other satellites with icy surfaces will be equal to 200–220°K and will not depend on wavelength.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

Laser action in stellar envelopes

It is shown that in high-temperature stars in which high speed mass loss is occurring, the rapidly recombining plasma in the stellar envelope can act as an amplifying medium. Model calculations for laser action in Heii 4686, using the collisional-radiative model, are presented. Menzel's hypothesis of laser action in distended stellar atmospheres is shown to be fully substantiated. The relevance of these results in resolving the problem of intensity anomalies in the spectra of Wolf-Rayet stars is pointed out.