赣州农业巨灾保险气象灾害指数设计

农业巨灾保险可有效分散灾害的风险,气象灾害是造成农业巨灾的主要灾害之一,因此设计合理的气象灾害保险指数可为农业巨灾保险提供科学的技术支撑.利用赣州市17个县(市、区)国家气象站1981—2020年和区域气象站2011—2020年观测资料,结合赣州气候以及气象灾害出现特点,经专家咨询和调研,确定暴雨、冰霜冻害、干旱和大风等4种气象灾害作为赣州农业巨灾保险的气象灾种.根据不同灾害出现的气候概率以及投保单位的要求,设计了赣州农业巨灾保险不同等级的气象灾害指数,并确定农业巨灾保险气象灾害赔付的触发概率范围为45％—70％.经验证,赣州农业巨灾保险气象灾害指数可用.     

Early J2 basalts in SE China: Incipience of large-scale late Mesozoic magmatism

Magmatism in SE China was dormant during 204–180 Ma, but was reactivated in 180–170 Ma (early J₂), and then became more and more intensive towards the end of early Cretaceous. The small-scale early J₂ magmatism is the incipience to long-term and large-scale magmatism in this region. A near east-west (EW) trend volcanic belt was distributed across south Hunan, south Jiangxi and southwest Fujian was formed during early J₂ time. Along this belt from the inland toward the coast, the lithology of basalts changes from alkali into tholeiite, and the amount of erupted volcanic rocks and the proportions of rhyolites coexisting with the basalts increase. On the basis of geochemical characteristics of these basalts, we infer that the melting degree of source rocks and the extent of fractional crystallization and crustal contamination all increased whereas the depth of mantle source decreased from the inland to the coast, which led to the variations of geological characteristics of the volcanic belt. In early J₂, the western spreading Pacific plate began to subduct underneath SE China continental block, reactivating near EW trend deep fault that was originally formed during the Indosinian event. The stress of the western spreading Pacific plate and the extent of asthenosphere upwelling increased from the inland to the coast, which is consistent with the generation and evolution of early J₂ basalts.     

Major element, REE, and Pb, Nd and Sr isotopic geochemistry of Cenozoic volcanic rocks of eastern China: implications for their origin from suboceanic-type mantle reservoirs

Major- and rare-earth-element (REE) concentrations and UThPb, SmNd, and RbSr isotope systematics are reported for Cenozoic volcanic rocks from northeastern and eastern China. These volcanic rocks, characteristically lacking the calc-alkaline suite of orogenic belts, were emplaced in a rift system which formed in response to the subduction of the western Pacific plate beneath the eastern Asiatic continental margin. The rocks sampled range from basanite and alkali olivine basalt, through olivine tholeiite and quartz tholeiite, to potassic basalts, alkali trachytes, pantellerite, and limburgite. These rock suites represent the volcanic centers of Datong, Hanobar, Kuandian, Changbaishan and Wudalianchi in northeastern China, and Mingxi in the Fujian Province of eastern China.The major-element and REE geochemistry is characteristic of each volcanic suite broadly evolving through cogenetic magmatic processes. Some of the outstanding features of the isotopic correlation arrays are as follows: (1) NdSr shows an anticorrelation within the field of ocean island basalts, extending from the MORB end-member to an enriched, time-averaged high Rb/Sr and Nd/Sr end-member (EM1), (2) SrPb also shows an anticorrelation, similar to that of Hawaiian and walvis Ridge basalts, (3) NdPb shows a positive correlation, and (4) the ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb vs ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb plot shows linear arrays parallel to the general trend (NHRL) for MORB on both sides of the geochron, although in the ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb vs ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb plot the linear array is significantly displaced above the NHRL in a pattern similar to that of the oceanic island basalts that show the Dupal signatures. In all isotope correlation patterns, the data arrays define two different mantle components—a MORB-like component and an enriched mantle component. The isotopic data presented here clearly demonstrate the existence of Dupal compositions in the sources of the continental volcanic rocks of eastern China. We suggest that the subcontinental mantle beneath eastern China served as the reservoir for the EMI component, and that the MORB component was either introduced by subduction of the Kula-Pacific Ridge beneath the Asiatic plate in the Late Cretaceous, as proposed by Uyeda and Miyashiro, or by upwellings in the subcontinental asthenosphere due to subduction.     

Variation of earthquake ground motionwith depth

Introduction The 21st century is the time for the exploitation and utilization of underground spaces. It is astrategic way to defeat the severe challenge that human are now confronting with, such as the lackof land, contamination of environment, traffic jam, waste of sources, and so on. The exploitationand utilization of underground space has become a global tendency, and a significant sign inevaluating the speed of modernization of cities. Facing the challenge, it is significantly necess…     

一次梅雨锋上MCS云微物理过程及降水形成机制

选取2004年6月23日一次梅雨锋MCS暴雨过程,在天气分析的基础上,利用非静力中尺度模式MM5(V3.6)进行了数值模拟.对于可分辨尺度的降水,采用Reisner霰显式方案,对云内微物理过程特别是对各种水成物的源项进行了详细分析.结果表明:冷云过程是此次降水的主要云物理过程.云中以霰和雪为主要的降水元,尤其霰的作用最大.在强降水时段,雨水的主要源项都与霰有关,霰的生长过程中冰相粒子与过冷水的碰并以及霰的凝华过程最为重要.零度层上方存在着丰富的过冷水,最大的云水含量中心也在过冷层中.在过冷层中冰相粒子主要通过凝华过程和碰并过程增长,MCS发展强盛期冰晶与过冷水的碰并增长要大于液水的蒸凝过程的增长.最后给出了本次梅雨锋上MCS降水云系的三层云结构及微物理过程模型.     

北疆寒潮天气分析及预报

利用1998-2014年20场北疆典型寒潮天气过程的高空、地面和数值预报产品资料,对北疆寒潮天气进行了环流分型和区域分型,总结了环流型与冷空气路径、区域类型的对应关系,重点统计了不同季节北疆寒潮爆发前一天内500hPa脊前北风急流、锋区强度、中低空冷空气强度、地面冷高压等特征量的平均值和最大、最小值,并检验欧洲ECMWF数值预报产品在北疆寒潮天气预报中的预报能力,为北疆寒潮精细化预报提供了技术参考。     

红河州中低海拔日照时数对烟叶品质的影响

通过对不同海拔高度烤烟生长状况与气象因子的平行调查，采用相关分析，揭示了烤烟大田生长期与日照时数的相关关系，表明烤烟不同生长时段要求日照时数不同。用二次曲线模拟了日照时数随海拔高度的变化情况，指出生产优质烟的适宜海拔界限和品质形成最佳时段，为优质烟生产提供科学依据。     

Implementation of a surface runoff model with Horton and Dunne mechanisms into the regional climate model RegCM_NCC

A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National Climate Center regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCMANCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme （noted as CTL） basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme （noted as NRM） reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows： with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation （latent heat flux） are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCMANCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere.     

江西“98.6”连续大暴雨过程的θ(se)场特征

通过分析江西“９８．６”连续大暴雨过程的θｓｅ场特征,得到了用θｓｅ场作暴雨落区预报的关卡发点,指出了对暴雨的分析和预报,θｓｅ场分析法简便易行,优于天气形势分析法。