黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析

采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Ya-mamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。     

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate—A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970–2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970–2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.     

Multiple Parameter Regularization: Numerical Solutions and Applications to the Determination of Geopotential from Precise Satellite Orbits

Kaula’s rule of thumb has been used in producing geopotential models from space geodetic measurements, including the most recent models from satellite gravity missions CHAMP. Although Xu and Rummel (Manuscr Geod 20 8–20, 1994b) suggested an alternative regularization method by introducing a number of regularization parameters, no numerical tests have ever been conducted. We have compared four methods of regularization for the determination of geopotential from precise orbits of COSMIC satellites through simulations, which include Kaula’s rule of thumb, one parameter regularization and its iterative version, and multiple parameter regularization. The simulation results show that the four methods can indeed produce good gravitational models from the precise orbits of centimetre level. The three regularization methods perform much better than Kaula’s rule of thumb by a factor of 6.4 on average beyond spherical harmonic degree 5 and by a factor of 10.2 for the spherical harmonic degrees from 8 to 14 in terms of degree variations of root mean squared errors. The maximum componentwise improvement in the root mean squared error can be up to a factor of 60. The simplest version of regularization by multiplying a positive scalar with a unit matrix is sufficient to better determine the geopotential model. Although multiple parameter regularization is theoretically attractive and can indeed eliminate unnecessary regularization for some of the harmonic coefficients, we found that it only improved its one parameter version marginally in this COSMIC example in terms of the mean squared error.     

强震与微震观测系统的研究

本系统采用动圈型换能器(属于速度型换能器)加电子反馈形成在0.05Hz~50Hz的加速度仪特性,大大减小了甚低频率的影响,而其线性及动态范围也能满足实际使用的要求,避免了位移型换能器在低频段的较大误差,在地震观测中取得较好的效果。     

南海含天然气水合物地层地震反射特征及可能分布研究

天然气水合物是当前能源与环境领域的研究热点之一,南中国海是天然气水合物赋存的有利区域。天然气水合物的存在改变了沉积地层的声学特征,这一性质使多道地震勘探成为发现海洋天然气水合物的主要手段。本文首先根据地震成像结果定性分析南海可能含天然气水合物沉积地层的地震反射特征,初步确定天然气水合物存在的可能性并指出地震成像关键技术。在无井条件下,构建虚拟井进行波阻抗反演得到定量的地层速度参数进一步证实这一可能性,最后将反演获得的速度场与ODP184 航次在此区域获得的地球物理、地球化学信息综合分析,可以确定此区域天然气水合物的存在及其空间展布。     

应用低频信号提高高速玄武岩下的成像质量

针对高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像困难的实际问题,采用波动方程波场数值模拟技术,根据玄武岩地层的特点,设计三个相应的简单高速玄武岩模型,通过对深层反射地震信号能量的分析,说明了低频地震信号既具有较强的穿透薄高速玄武岩屏蔽层的能力,也具有减弱因粗糙表面所产生的绕射噪音的能力。一个完整的2D玄武岩模型的模拟试验证明了利用低频信号可以提高高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像的质量,实际资料的低通滤波处理也取得了预期的效果。     

海安地震台新场地的地电阻率广播干扰确定与排除

海安地震台新场地的地电阻率观测于2004年12月初步建成，在试观测期间发现地电阻率东西测向观测数据严重受农村广播干扰，这种干扰国内未见报道，本文初步分析和总结了这种干扰的特征、产生机理及干扰排除措施，对其他台站建设地电阻率观测台站有一定的指导意义。     

Variations of near-surface atmospheric CO2 and H2O concentrations during summer on Muztagata

Expeditions during the summers of 2002 and 2003 implemented continuous monitoring of near-surface (2 m height) atmospheric CO₂ and H₂O concentrations at the 4500 m elevation on Muztagata. The resultant data sets reveal a slight decrease of CO₂ concentrations (of about 5 μmol·mol^-1) and changes in the diurnal variations from the end of June to the middle August. The daily maximum CO₂ concentrations occur between 02:30-05:30 AM (local time) and the minimum levels occur between 12:00-15:30 PM. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the summer of 2002 were around 5 μmol·mol^-1 lower than those during the same period of 2003, whereas the diurnal amplitude was higher. In contrast, we found that the daily mean atmospheric H₂O content in 2003 was much lower than that in 2002 and there exists a striking negative correlation between CO₂ and H₂O concentrations. We therefore suggest that the near-surface atmospheric CO₂ concentration is affected not only by photosynthesis and respiration, but also by the air H₂O content in the glaciated region around Muztagata.     

区域大气成分数值预报系统（CAPPS-3）在全国推广应用

2005年中国气象局新技术推广项目“区域大气成分数值预报系统”开发了CAPPS第3版，将原来的单箱模式升级为与中尺度数值模式一致的网格化模式，可预报区域范围内的污染浓度分布；为区域气象中心和省级气象业务部门开展区域空气质量预报提供技术方法和业务平台。2006年5月CAPPS-3在中国气象局大气成分中心开始进行全国范围的空气质量业务预报试验，并建立了产品发布平台，每天发布SO2和PMIO的浓度预报图和预报结论，     

The Reconstruction of Paleovegetation and Paleoclimate in the Late Pliocene of West Yunnan, China

The Eryuan palynoflora from the Late Pliocene of western Yunnan, China is described in this paper, and is compared with two contemporary palynofloras from Yangyi and Longling. The palynological data of the three locations are analyzed to reconstruct the climatic parameters of these areas at that time by using the Coexistence Approach. The Late Pliocene climatic parameters of Eryuan are estimated, i.e., the mean annual temperature ranged from 13.3 to 18.6^∘C, the mean temperature of the warmest month from 24.6 to 27.5^∘C, the mean temperature of the coldest month from 1.9 to 12.1^∘C, the difference in temperatures of coldest and warmest month from 14.2 to 16.6^∘C, the mean annual precipitation from 619.9 to 1484.3 mm, the mean maximum monthly precipitation from 143.8 to 245.6 mm, and the mean minimum monthly precipitation from 12.7 to 16.4 mm. Both paleovegetation and paleoclimate of the three localities are compared with the modern data at each location. The present study suggests a MAT decrease accompanied by a doubling of the MAP in the Longling area between the Late Pliocene and the present. This seems to be related to the uplift of Gaoligong Mountain in Longling which is now part of the eastern portion (Western Yunnan) of the Tibetan Plateau.