Evaluation of NLDAS‐2 evapotranspiration against tower flux site observations

The North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) has run four land surface models for a 30‐year (1979–2008) retrospective period. Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important model outputs from NLDAS‐2 for investigating land–atmosphere interaction or to monitor agricultural drought. Here, we evaluate hourly ET using in situ observations over the Southern Great Plains (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed network) for 1 January 1997–30 September 1999 and daily ET u‐sing in situ observations at the AmeriFlux network over the conterminous USA for an 8‐year period (2000–2007). The NLDAS‐2 models compare well against observations, with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Noah land surface model performing best, followed, in order, by the Variable Infiltration Capacity, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, and Mosaic models. Daily evaluation across the AmeriFlux network shows that for all models, performance depends on season and vegetation type; they do better in spring and fall than in winter or summer and better for deciduous broadleaf forest and grasslands than for croplands or evergreen needleleaf forest. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary evidence and luminescence and ESR dating of Early Pleistocene high lake levels of Megalake Tengger,northwestern China

The timing of high lake-level stands during the Late Pleistocene in western China remains controversial. Here we report new results from Megalake Tengger based on a study of palaeo-shorelines and a drill core from Baijian Lake in the northwestern Tengger Desert. Multiple dating methods, based on luminescence signals (quartz optically stimulated luminescence, K-feldspar post infrared-infrared stimulated luminescence) and electron spin resonance signals of quartz, were used to date beach sands from palaeo-shoreline profiles at altitudes of ~1310 m (+20 m above lake level), ~1320 m (+30 m) and ~1350 m (+60 m), and from the top 20 m of sandy sediments from the drill core obtained from the modern beach of Baijian Lake. The dating results show that high lake-level stands associated with the previously reported Megalake Tengger (~1310–1320 m) occurred during the late Early to Middle Pleistocene, which is much earlier than previously reported. In addition, no geomorphological evidence of shorelines and sedimentary evidence from the drill core profile were found to support the previously reported Late Pleistocene lake levels. Our results indicate that the exact age of the previously reported ‘high lake level event’ in a large part of northwestern China during the Late Pleistocene needs to be re-evaluated.     

Influence of a coarse interlayer on seawater intrusion and contaminant migration in coastal aquifers

Vertical 2D slice laboratory experiments were carried out in homogenous and layered sand tanks to elucidate the effects of a highly permeable (coarse‐grained sand) interlayer on seawater intrusion and transport of contaminants to a coastal sea. Tidal fluctuations produced oscillations in the seawater–freshwater transition zone, fluctuations of the contaminant infiltration rate and a zigzag contaminant plume outline. The seawater wedge became discontinuous at the (vertical) edges of the interlayer because of increased lateral movement of the seawater–freshwater interface within the interlayer. The contaminant plume formed a tail within the interlayer depending on the tidal stage, and similar to the wedge, its movement was accentuated. A simple analytical model that neglected vertical flow reliably predicted steady‐state seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. Numerical modeling was used to gain insight into the groundwater hydrodynamics and contaminant migration. The numerical results confirmed the experimental findings, i.e. that a highly permeable interlayer can provide a rapid transit path for contaminants to reach the seaward boundary and that the interlayer amplifies the effects of tidal fluctuations, resulting in wider transition zones for the seawater wedge and contaminant plume. Numerical simulations further showed that, with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity, the maximum seawater intrusion distance inside the interlayer increases approximately linearly. For the fixed‐head contaminant injection condition used, the model showed that contaminant infiltration increases approximately logarithmically with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity (other factors held fixed). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Higher tritium concentrations measured in permafrost thaw lakes in northern Alberta

Tritium concentrations were measured in a survey of 24 lakes, 15 wetlands, and 133 groundwaters in the oil sands region of northeastern Alberta and compared with both recent precipitation and precipitation sampled during the 1960s tritium peak caused by atmospheric thermonuclear weapons testing. Water samples from lakes included a group of 14 thaw lakes that had higher runoff attributed to melting of permafrost in peat plateaus within their watersheds. While tritium in all lakes was found to be intermediate between recent and 1960s concentrations, the thaw lakes were found to be significantly enriched in tritium compared with other lakes, as were unfrozen wetlands characterized by a thick sequence of low‐hydraulic conductivity peat. The results provide further evidence of different water sources to the thaw lakes and may indicate that melting of modern permafrost in part formed since the 1950s is occurring in these systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM

ABSTRACT

A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.