1991年江淮流域梅雨结束预报的分析与讨论

１９９１年江淮梅雨结束，在预报上具有相当难度。由于ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报出现重大偏差，曾一度造成业务预报的重大分歧，增加了预报决策的困难。作者客观地反映当时预报的实况，其目的在于剖析预报分歧中的症结，并由此提出预报员的经验可以弥补单一预报工具的不足，修正数值预报产品的误差，从而提高预报准确率。     

Energy spectra and relative abundances of ions of C,O, and Fe at 1 AU during the quiet sun

The ion composition of fluxes of charged particles in interplanetary space with energies ∼0.03–10 MeV/nucleon are studied during quiet periods in the 23rd solar-activity cycle using data from the ACE spacecraft. Apart from the activity minimum, the Fe/O ratio during such periods corresponds to either the relative abundances of ions in particle fluxes accelerated in solar flares or the mean abundances of elements in the solar corona. At the cycle minimum, this ratio takes on values characteristic for the solar wind. These results indicate that the background fluxes of low-energy particles in the phases of the growth, maximum, and decay of the solar cycle include significant contributions from both coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies and particles accelerated in small impulsive solar flares. The particle fluxes from such flares are distinguished by an enhanced abundance of iron ions.     

Kinematics of the structure of the active region in Orion-KL

The kinematics of the superfine structure of the active star-forming region in the dense molecular cloud Orion-KL has been investigated in the Н₂О maser emission for the period 1998–2003. It has been established that the surrounding gas inflows onto the disk and is transferred in a spiral trajectory to the center. An excess angular momentum as it is accumulated is carried away by a bipolar outflow; a highvelocity central flow surrounded by low-velocity components is formed. The outer low-velocity component observed at the detection limit has a diameter Ø₃ ≈ 4.5 AU, further out, Ø₂ ≈ 0.5 AU and Ø₁ ≈ 0.24 AU. The gas transfer velocity increases exponentially as the center is approached. The maser emission from the central flow is decisive. A rise in the velocity leads to a flow discontinuity and a reduction in the amount of inflowingmaterial and, accordingly, the emission level. The emission in the period under consideration was reduced exponentially for ~6 months, whereupon its restoration began.     

黔中乌当盆地阶地沉积特征及其对盆地演化的指示

黔中乌当盆地是贵州省山间盆地的典型代表,四级河流阶地清晰地记录了新构造运动中区域地壳抬升和盆地演化。通过阶地沉积物砾组统计、粒度分析、光释光（OSL）测年,探讨盆地的发育和演化。结果显示,阶地砾石排列指示盆地水系古流向与现代河流基本一致,砾石磨圆度变化大,分选较差,岩性继承了区域地层。砾石组合特征反映了构造抬升期盆地内强烈的冲刷剥蚀。漫滩沉积物粒度表明盆地在稳定阶段河流水动力整体呈增大趋势。T4和T3发育阶段区域以冲刷剥蚀为主并塑造了盆地雏形。T2阶地沉积特征及测年结果（177.4 ka~87.6 ka）表明中更新世末期持续数万年的沉积夷平作用使盆地基本成型。T1阶地形成时代约25ka,指示了黔中地区最近一次构造抬升和盆地的最终定型。     

Dynamics of the radiation belt formed by solar protons during magnetic storms

Experimental proofs of the existence of the formation and destruction mechanisms of solar proton belts in the inner magnetosphere at a rapid change in the penetration boundary of solar protons are presented. An analysis of the measurements of solar protons and alpha-particles on board the Coronas-F low-altitude polar satellite during the magnetic storms in October–November 2003 is performed. During this period, formation and destruction of the belts of solar cosmic rays was observed several times. The compression of the magnetosphere during a storm makes possible the direct penetration of solar protons deep into the inner magnetosphere. The proton trajectories outside the penetration boundary are open, and the preliminary captured particles can easily leave the magnetosphere. During the recovery of the magnetospheric configuration, when the penetration boundary goes away from the Earth, the solar protons and alpha-particles with relatively low velocity of the magnetic drift remain stably captured, whereas the particles of higher energies follow the motion of the penetration boundary. That is why the energy range of the captured protons is limited from above in contrast to the effect of injection during ineffective SC in the low-energy region.     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

Ionosphere Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes according to the Data of Ground Based Station of the Vertical Ionospheric Sounding Wakkanai

The paper analyzes the data of manual ionograms processing of hourly measurements of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2 ionospheric layer at the Wakkanai ionospheric vertical sounding station (Japan) in a geomagnetically quiet environment before a series of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0, for which the station entered the earthquake preparation zone, in order to detect possible Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes (IDPE), and to determine their quantitative characteristics. Detected IDPE, in the opinion of the authors, can be related to the processes of preparation of the corresponding earthquakes, i.e., to be Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes (IPE).     

2018年1月江苏3次致灾暴雪成因对比分析

应用常规天气图资料、FY-2E 云顶亮温(TBB)资料、多普勒雷达观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对江苏2018年1月3—4日(简称“01·04”过程)、1月24—25日(简称“01·25”过程)和1月27—28日(简称“01·27”过程)3次暴雪过程进行了对比分析。结果表明：1)3次暴雪过程都是在500 hPa高空槽、中低层切变线、700 hPa西南急流和地面冷空气的共同影响下产生的;暴雪过程中水汽主要来源于中层,降雪期间逆温层结始终存在。2)不同之处是,“01·04”过程中层暖湿气流先形成,水汽条件更好,而后弱冷空气自低层楔入,促使暖湿气流抬升,上升运动发展更为旺盛;“01·25”过程和“01·27”过程低层先形成冷垫,而后中层暖湿气流增强沿冷垫爬升,冷垫更冷,“01·25”过程逆温更强。3)暴雪过程中TBB稳定低值期基本可以反映强降雪时段;“01·04”过程中有弱对流发展,造成降雪强度大。     

近20年烟台主城区土地利用变化特征与驱动分析

以TM影像为基本数据源,结合土地利用现状图和土地详查数据,分析了烟台主城区1992年以来土地利用空间扩张特征与机制,以能够更好地对城市进行科学规划控制,促进城市经济协调发展。通过对1992年及2013年TM遥感影像进行处理分析,结合烟台市的社会经济统计数据,得出结论：烟台市1992年到2013年城市空间扩张向西面及沿海方向发展;城市建筑用地面积增加较多,耕地和水域面积则呈减小趋势。影响城市土地利用空间扩张的驱动因子主要是经济发展、人口增长、产业结构、交通发展及国家政策等,其中经济发展和人口增长是促进烟台城市土地利用空间扩张的主要因素。     

Geodynamic evolution of crust accretion at the axis of the Reykjanes Ridge,Atlantic Ocean

The results of analysis of the anomalous magnetic field of the Reykjanes Ridge and the adjacent basins are presented, including a new series of detailed reconstructions for magnetic anomalies 1–6 in combination with a summary of the previous geological and geophysical investigations. We furnish evidence for three stages of evolution of the Reykjanes Ridge, each characterized by a special regime of crustal accretion related to the effect of the Iceland hotspot. The time interval of each stage and the causes of the variation in the accretion regime are considered. During the first, Eocene stage (54–40 Ma) and the third, Miocene-Holocene stage (24 Ma-present time at the northern Reykjanes Ridge north of 59° N and 17–11 Ma-present time at the southern Reykjanes Ridge south of 59° N), the spreading axis of the Reykjanes Ridge resembled the present-day configuration, without segmentation, with oblique orientation relative to the direction of ocean floor opening (at the third stage), and directed toward the hotspot. These attributes are consistent with a model that assumes asthenospheric flow from the hotspot toward the ridge axis. Decompression beneath the spreading axis facilitates this flow. Thus, the crustal accretion during the first and the third stages was markedly affected by interaction of the spreading axis with the hotspot. During the second, late Eocene-Oligocene to early Miocene stage (40–24 Ma at the northern Reykjanes Ridge and 40 to 17–11 Ma at the southern Reykjanes Ridge), the ridge axis was broken by numerous transform fracture zones and nontransform offsets into segments 30–80 km long, which were oriented orthogonal to the direction of ocean floor opening, as is typical of many slow-spreading ridges. The plate-tectonic reconstructions of the oceanic floor accommodating magnetic anomalies of the second stage testify to recurrent rearrangements of the ridge axis geometry related to changing kinematics of the adjacent plates. The obvious contrast in the mode of crustal accretion during the second stage in comparison with the first and the third stages is interpreted as evidence for the decreasing effect of the Iceland hotspot on the Reykjanes Ridge, or the complete cessation of this effect. The detailed geochronology of magnetic anomalies 1–6 (from 20 Ma to present) has allowed us to depict with a high accuracy the isochrons of the oceanic bottom spaced at 1 Ma. The variable effect of the hotspot on the accretion of oceanic crust along the axes of the Reykjanes Ridge and the Kolbeinsey and Mid-Atlantic ridges adjoining the former in the north and the south was estimated from the changing obliquity of spreading. The spreading rate tends to increase with reinforcing of the effect of the Iceland hotspot on the Reykjanes Ridge.