High-resolution simulations of West African climate using regional climate model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions

To downscale climate change scenarios, long-term regional climatologies employing global model forcing are needed for West Africa. As a first step, this work examines present-day integrations (1981–2000) with a regional climate model (RCM) over West Africa nested in both reanalysis data and output from a coupled atmospheric–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Precipitation and temperature from both simulations are compared to the Climate Research Unit observations. Their spatial distributions are shown to be realistic. Annual cycles are considerably correlated. Simulations are also evaluated with respect to the driving large-scale fields. RCM offers some improvements compared to the AOGCM driving field. Evaluation of seasonal precipitation biases reveals that RCM dry biases are highest on June–August around mountains. They are associated to cold biases in temperature which, in turn, are connected to wet biases in precipitation outside orographic zones. Biases brought through AOGCM forcing are relatively low. Despite these errors, the simulations produce encouraging results and show the ability of the AOGCM to drive the RCM for future projections.     

广州市社区出行低碳指数格局及其影响因素的空间异质性

通过构建社区出行低碳指数（CTLCI）模型,对广州市社区出行低碳指数的空间格局及其差异特征进行了分析,并利用全局回归（OLS）模型和地理加权回归（GWR）模型对社区出行低碳指数的影响因素以及其间关系的空间异质性进行了研究。结果表明,广州市社区出行低碳指数由中心城区向外逐渐递增,呈明显的圈层结构。内圈层的社区出行低碳指数内部差异最小,中间过渡圈层的最大。社区人口密度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以正向作用为主,公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以负向作用为主,且它们的影响作用具有空间异质性。具体指出了在不同地域空间内社区人口密度、公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数在影响程度和作用方向上的差异,为减少广州城市交通碳排放、针对不同空间制定有效的低碳政策和构建低碳城市空间结构提供了科学依据。     

Tectonic control of fan size: the importance of spatially variable subsidence rates

We study the geophysical controls on the size of alluvial fans. Simple relationships between catchment characteristics, sediment yield, subsidence patterns and fan size are developed. As predicting fan size is essentially a conservation of mass problem, our analysis is general, applying to all types of fan landform. The importance of spatially variable subsidence rates has gone largely unrecognized in previous studies of modern fans. Here we stress that the distribution of subsidence rates in the depositional basin is a primary control on relative fan size. Both free coefficients in the oft-cited power-law correlation of fan area and catchment area can be shown to be set primarily by the tectonic setting, taken to include source area uplift rate and the subsidence distribution in the depositional basin. In the case of a steady-state landscape, relative fan size is shown to be independent of both climate and source lithology; only during times of significant departure from steady state can relative fan size be expected to vary with either climate or source lithology. Transients associated with (1) a sudden increase in rock uplift rate, (2) a sudden change in climate and (3) the unroofing of strata with greatly differing erodibilities may produce variation of relative fan areas with both climate and source lithology. Variation of relative fan size with climate or lithology, however, requires that catchment–fan system response to perturbations away from steady state is sensitive to climate and lithology. Neither the strength of transient system responses nor their sensitivity to climate or lithology are known at present. Furthermore, internal feedbacks can significantly dampen any climatic or lithological effect. Thus theoretical considerations of the importance of climatic and lithological variables are inconclusive, but suggest that climatic and lithological effects are probably of secondary importance to tectonic effects. Field data from an unsteady landscape in Owens Valley, California, support and illustrate theoretical predictions regarding tectonic control of fan size. Field data from Owens Valley allow, but do not prove, a secondary dependence on source lithology. In addition, the Owens Valley field data indicate no relationship between relative fan size and climate. Headward catchment growth and enhanced sediment bypassing of fans during times of increased sediment yield (glacial) are put forward as plausible explanations.     

中国煤炭资源勘查开发程度分析

综合前人勘查开发程度的定性分析结果,以累计探获资源量、保有资源量、预测资源量和尚未利用资源量的资源属性和勘查开发属性为基础,通过对中国各省区煤炭资源的勘查程度指数和开发程度指数两个指标的统计分析,对中国浅部煤炭资源的勘查和开发程度进行了分析评价。结果显示,中国浅部煤炭资源勘查程度明显表现为东高西低、北高南低,而开发程度明显表现为东高西低,南北差异不明显,且蒙东、晋陕蒙宁和北疆3个分区的煤炭资源未来具有最广泛的勘查开发前景。该研究成果对未来一段时期内勘查开发潜力区块的圈定、制定未来勘查开发战略具有重要的指导意义。     

伊朗地震台网现状分析

通过中伊双方合作交流，详细考察了伊朗的地震台网。伊朗现建有4类台网:地震遥测台网、国家地震台网、强震台网及水库诱发地震台网。这些台网中高性能宽频带地震仪数量不足，使得地震定位精度不高;且4类台网分属不同机构，在一定程度上限制了伊朗的地震监测能力。     

GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.     

瞬变电磁方法在探测煤矿浅层高阻采空区中的应用

过去在煤矿浅层高阻采空区探测中,普遍认为高密度电法为较好的方法,而瞬变电磁法通常被认为其对低阻反映较灵敏,对高阻反映不灵敏,而很少采用,但我国内蒙、山西等地,地表沟壑纵横,高差较大,不具备高密度电法的施工条件。因此,笔者给出一种在较小线框下进行的瞬变电磁方法,通过配合高发射频率和大发射电流,能够比较清晰的反映出地下高阻目标体,以此说明,针对地形起伏较大,不适合高密度电法施工的地方,小框瞬变电磁方法可以在一定程度上解决煤矿中不含水采空区的物探手段问题。文中参考煤矿不含水采空区埋深较浅的情况,设计了理论模型,正演计算得到的效果良好,对高阻的反映较为灵敏,并在鄂尔多斯地区某煤矿实际应用了该方法,得到的结果与开挖情况相符合,对煤矿生产起到了很好的指导作用,这表明该方法是切实有效的。     

DORIS Contribution to ITRF2005

We examine the contribution of the Doppler Orbit determination and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) technique to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2005) by evaluating the quality of the submitted solutions as well as that of the frame parameters, especially the origin and the scale. Unlike the previous versions of the ITRF, ITRF2005 is constructed with input data in the form of time-series of station positions (weekly for satellite techniques and daily for VLBI) and daily Earth orientation parameters (EOPs), including full variance–covariance information. Analysis of the DORIS station positions’ time-series indicates an internal precision reaching 15 mm or better, at a weekly sampling. A cumulative solution using 12 years of weekly time-series was obtained and compared to a similar International GNSS Service (IGS) GPS solution (at 37 co-located sites) yielding a weighted root mean scatter (WRMS) of the order of 8 mm in position (at the epoch of minimum variance) and about 2.5 mm/year in velocity. The quality of this cumulative solution resulting from the combination of two individual DORIS solutions is better than any individual solution. A quality assessment of polar motion embedded in the contributed DORIS solutions is performed by comparison with the results of other space-geodetic techniques and in particular GPS. The inferred WRMS of polar motion varies significantly from one DORIS solution to another and is between 0.5 and 2 mas, depending on the strategy used and in particular estimating or not polar motion rate by the analysis centers. This particular aspect certainly needs more investigation by the DORIS Analysis Centers.     

复杂构造三维地震观测系统设计的共聚焦分辨率分析

三维地震观测系统共聚焦分辨率特性分析突破传统以点论证为基础的观测系统分辨率分析方法,面向地质目标定量预测三维观测系统地震成像的空间分辨率和振幅精度.基于Fourier有限差分（FFD）大步长波场延拓和Born-Kirchhoff小步长波场插值递推方法,本文介绍了一种复杂介质条件下三维地震观测系统共聚焦分辨率特性快速分析方法.对给定的速度模型,该方法能够分析拟采用的三维地震观测系统设计方案对复杂构造的成像分辨率与AVP属性,从而为进一步的偏移成像与储层分析提供保证.最后本文以SEG/EAGE三维盐丘模型为例设计满覆盖为16次的三维地震观测系统,并实施三维共聚焦分辨率特性分析.     

A simplified mathematical model for the dam-breach hydrograph for three reservoir geometries following a sudden full dam break

Natural Hazards - The prediction of dam-break water flow at dam site is essential to reduce the potential for loss of damage in the downstream floodplain. In this study, the influence of reservoir...