Earthquake early warning for transport lines

This paper analyzes the potential of earthquake early-warning systems for transport lines. The interdisciplinary work focuses on rapidly producing an alert map during an ongoing earthquake as well as providing a damage map immediately after the strong-motion phase that visualizes potential damages to the railway infrastructure. In order to meet these application requirements, a service-oriented architecture based on geospatial standards is specified. This ensures the portability of the system architecture to different geographic regions as well as a potential transfer to other natural disasters and infrastructure systems. The first part of the paper describes the standard-based services of the system architecture together with design principles that are useful for the realization of early-warning systems. In the second part of the paper, an online demonstrator for the exemplary test area in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, Germany, is presented. The system architecture of the demonstrator includes an earthquake early-warning methodology based on artificial neural networks and an infrastructure-specific damage assessment. The third part of the paper analyzes the potential of implementing low-cost sensors in the track, which would provide a dense network directly at the railway infrastructure.     

The need for data: natural disasters and the challenges of database management

Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.     

Constraining input and output fluxes of the southern-central Chile subduction zone: water,chlorine and sulfur

In this paper, we constrain the input and output fluxes of H₂O, Cl and S into the southern-central Chilean subduction zone (31°S–46°S). We determine the input flux by calculating the amounts of water, chlorine and sulfur that are carried into the subduction zone in subducted sediments, igneous crust and hydrated lithospheric mantle. The applied models take into account that latitudinal variations in the subducting Nazca plate impact the crustal porosity and the degree of upper mantle serpentinization and thus water storage in the crust and mantle. In another step, we constrain the output fluxes of the subduction zone both to the subcontinental lithospheric mantle and to the atmosphere–geosphere–ocean by the combined use of gas flux determinations at the volcanic arc, volume calculations of volcanic rocks and the combination of mineralogical and geothermal models of the subduction zone. The calculations indicate that about 68 Tg/m/Ma of water enters the subduction zone, as averaged over its total length of 1,480 km. The volcanic output on the other hand accounts for 2 Tg/m/Ma or 3 % of that input. We presume that a large fraction of the volatiles that are captured within the subducting sediments (which accounts for roughly one-third of the input) are cycled back into the ocean through the forearc. This assumption is however questioned by the present lack of evidence for major venting systems of the submarine forearc. The largest part of the water that is carried into the subduction zone in the crust and hydrated mantle (accounting for two-thirds of the input) appears to be transported beyond the volcanic arc.     

Morphology and geology of the continental shelf and upper slope of southern Central Chile (33°S–43°S)

The continental shelf and slope of southern Central Chile have been subject to a number of international as well as Chilean research campaigns over the last 30 years. This work summarizes the geologic setting of the southern Central Chilean Continental shelf (33°S–43°S) using recently published geophysical, seismological, sedimentological and bio-geochemical data. Additionally, unpublished data such as reflection seismic profiles, swath bathymetry and observations on biota that allow further insights into the evolution of this continental platform are integrated. The outcome is an overview of the current knowledge about the geology of the southern Central Chilean shelf and upper slope. We observe both patches of reduced as well as high recent sedimentation on the shelf and upper slope, due to local redistribution of fluvial input, mainly governed by bottom currents and submarine canyons and highly productive upwelling zones. Shelf basins show highly variable thickness of Oligocene-Quaternary sedimentary units that are dissected by the marine continuations of upper plate faults known from land. Seismic velocity studies indicate that a paleo-accretionary complex that is sandwiched between the present, relatively small active accretionary prism and the continental crust forms the bulk of the continental margin of southern Central Chile.     

The use of GPS for marine positioning in Germany—requirements,experience, and concepts

Abstract

While beginning to establish a German Civil GPS Information and Observation Service in 1990, the actual and (near) future GPS market in Germany was analyzed. In addition, the feasibility of using GPS for water authority tasks has been studied during past years. Typical capabilities in this area are real‐time positioning for hydrographic surveying (kinematic application) and precise transfer of levels to tide gauges and verification at offshore positions.

The article describes the user interests, the requirements, some of the test campaigns, and the derived concepts for future applications.     

Age constraints on faulting and fault reactivation: a multi-chronological approach

Movement within the Earth’s upper crust is commonly accommodated by faults or shear zones, ranging in scale from micro-displacements to regional tectonic lineaments. Since faults are active on different time scales and can be repeatedly reactivated, their displacement chronology is difficult to reconstruct. This study represents a multi-geochronological approach to unravel the evolution of an intracontinental fault zone locality along the Danube Fault, central Europe. At the investigated fault locality, ancient motion has produced a cataclastic deformation zone in which the cataclastic material was subjected to hydrothermal alteration and K-feldspar was almost completely replaced by illite and other phyllosilicates. Five different geochronological techniques (zircon Pb-evaporation, K–Ar and Rb–Sr illite, apatite fission track and fluorite (U-Th)/He) have been applied to explore the temporal fault activity. The upper time limit for initiation of faulting is constrained by the crystallization age of the primary rock type (known as “Kristallgranit”) at 325 ± 7 Ma, whereas the K–Ar and Rb–Sr ages of two illite fractions <2 μm (266–255 Ma) are interpreted to date fluid infiltration events during the final stage of the cataclastic deformation period. During this time, the “Kristallgranit” was already at or near the Earth’s surface as indicated by the sedimentary record and thermal modelling results of apatite fission track data. (U–Th)/He thermochronology of two single fluorite grains from a fluorite–quartz vein within the fault zone yield Cretaceous ages that clearly postdate their Late-Variscan mineralization age. We propose that later reactivation of the fault caused loss of helium in the fluorites. This assertion is supported by geological evidence, i.e. offsets of Jurassic and Cretaceous sediments along the fault and apatite fission track thermal modelling results are consistent with the prevalence of elevated temperatures (50–80°C) in the fault zone during the Cretaceous.     

Dioritic intrusions of the Slavkovský les (Kaiserwald), Western Bohemia: their origin and significance in late Variscan granitoid magmatism

Mafic and intermediate intrusions occur in the Slavkovsky les as dykes, sills and minor tabular bodies emplaced in metamorphic rocks or enclosed in late Variscan granites near the SW contact of the Western Krušné hory/Erzgebirge granite pluton. They are similar in composition and textures to the redwitzites defined in NE Bavaria. Single zircon Pb-evaporation analyses constrain the age of a quartz monzodiorite at 323.4 ± 4.4 Ma and of a granodiorite at 326.1 ± 5.6 Ma. The P–T range of magma crystallization is estimated at ~1.4–2.2 kbar and ~730–870°C and it accords with a shallow intrusion level of late Variscan granites but provides lower crystallization temperatures compared to the Bavarian redwitzites. We explain the heterogeneous composition of dioritic intrusions in the Slavkovsky les by mixing between mafic and felsic magmas with a minor effect of fractional crystallization. Increased K, Ba, Rb, Sr and REE contents compared to tholeiitic basalts suggest that the parental mafic magma was probably produced by melting of a metasomatised mantle, the melts being close to lamprophyre or alkali basalt composition. Diorites and granodiorites originated from mixed magmas derived by addition of about 25–35 and 50 vol.%, respectively, of the acid end-member (granite) to lamprophyre or alkali-basalt magma. Our data stress an important role of mafic magmas in the origin of late Variscan granitoids in NW Bohemian Massif and emphasize the effect of mantle metasomatism on the origin of K-rich mafic igneous rocks.     

Interglacial complex and solcomplex

All younger Pleistocene interglacials form interglacial complexes. The term interglacial complex is a short term for a tight complex of interglacials, interstadials and breviglacials, separating a complex of warm periods from the long glacial periods (euglacials). In the terrestric environment the interglacial complexes are represented by soil clusters (solcomplexes). Therein which occur interglacial and interstadial soils of different types in the loess environment separated by thin beds of loess or loess derivates (breviglacials). This article considers the mutilation and simulation of solcomplexes. Frequently, fossil solcomplexes present themselves as diminished to a few soils or to one single soil. This mutilation of solcomplexes can be due to soil convergence (soils of different warm periods — interglacials, interstadials — merge to form optically one soil), syn-solcomplex erosion or post-solcomplex erosion and sometimes to soil disguise. Conversely solcomplexes may be simulated by narrowing of soils which belong to different interglacial complexes and moreover by soil divergence (splitting of a soil of one single warm period by an interlayer of rock) or by reworked soil sediment.     

Geochemistry of the Drahotín and Mutěnín intrusions, West Bohemian shear zone, Bohemian massif: contrasting evolution of mantle-derived melts

In western Bohemia, the Drahotín (gabbro-diorite) and Mutěnín (gabbronorite-diorite-syenite) intrusions show different origins and patterns of geochemical evolution. Parental magmas of the Drahotín intrusion were derived predominantly from enriched mantle sources, and the melts have undergone a significant degree of assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) during their ascent and/or emplacement into the crust. In contrast, the compositional variation of the complex Mutěnín intrusion cannot be explained by simple AFC processes, but more likely reflects the involvement of several parental magmas. The gabbronorite was derived from a depleted mantle source, whereas the diorite/syenite stem from a mixed mantle-crust reservoir. The contrasting evolution of the Drahotín and Mutěnín intrusions may be due to their melt derivation and magma emplacement under different tectonothermal regimes at different times.     

Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey

Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour.