An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Foundations of cable car towers upon alpine glaciers

This paper presents a design approach for strip footings upon glacier ice. Safety against ultimate limit state is proved by the geotechnical slip-line field solution by Prandtl. Glacier ice at 0°C can be modelled as purely cohesive material. Statistical evaluation of uniaxial compression tests with high strain rate revealed a mean value of the cohesion of 600 kPa and a characteristic value c _k = 355 kPa (5% fractile). With a coefficient of variation V _c = 0.3, the partial safety factor turns out to be γ _c = 1.9. An approximate solution for estimating the creep settlement rate is presented to check the serviceability limit state: with the width b of the strip foundation, p the foundation pressure and for ice at 0°C. Experiences on Stubai glacier with grate shaped footings showed that creep settlements occurring per year due to maximum foundation pressures 250 kPa did not influence the operation and the maintenance of the cable cars.     

Lippmann Diagrams: Theory and Application to Carbonate Systems

Since 1980 when F. Lippmann's seminal paper appeared, ourunderstanding of solubility equilibria involving ionic solidsolutions has been advanced by theoretical considerations as wellas careful experimental studies designed to determine excess Gibbsfunctions. A unified theory of solid-solution aqueous-solutionequilibria as well as the thermodynamic background of thephenomenon of ``stoichiometric saturation' are reviewed.It is shown that Lippmann diagrams effectively summarize thethermodynamic basis of solid-solute aqueous-solution equilibria ofsparingly soluble metal carbonate systems. Clearly, the predictivepower of these diagrams may be limited due to kineticrestrictions. Only when dissolution and precipitation areessentially reversible, favourable conditions to synthesizehomogeneous solid phases can be derived from studies of equilibria.     

Influence of the surface microlayer on the flux of nonconservative trace gases (CO,H2, CH4, N2O) across the ocean-atmosphere interface

Gas exchange experiments were conducted in the tropical Atlantic Ocean during a ship expedition with FS Meteor using a small rubber raft. The temporal change of the mixing ratios of CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O in the headspace of a floating glass box and the concentrations of these gases in the water phase were measured to determine their transfer velocities across the ocean-atmosphere interface. The ocean acted as a sink for these gases when the water was undersaturated with respect to the mixing ratio in the headspace. The transfer velocities were different for the individual gases and showed still large differences even when normalized for diffusivity. Applying the laminar film model, film thicknesses of 20 to 70 m were calculated for the observed flux rates of the different gas species. When the water was supersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O, the transfer velocities of the emission process were smaller than those determined for the deposition process. In case of H₂ and CH₄, emission was even not calculable although, based on the observed gradient, the laminar film model predicted significant fluxes at the air-sea interface. The results are interpreted by destruction processes active within the surface microlayer.     

Künstliche Geländefärbung als Beispiel für „physikalische Katalyse”

Zusammenfassung Die Erhöhung bzw. Verminderung der Strahlungsabsorption und-reflexion durch farbändernde Oberflächenschichten ist ein physikalisches Analogon zur positiven bzw. negativen Katalyse. Die Konsequenzen einer Farbänderung unter verschiedenen äußeren Bedingungen lassen sich durch Vergleich mit gewissen Grenzfällen charakterisieren.Die Verdunstungsverluste des Feuchtigkeitsgehalts von dunklem Erdboden ließen sich durch Weißbestäubung auf die Hälfte reduzieren. Für die mit abnehmender Schichtdicke zunehmende zusätzliche Heiz- bzw. Kühlleistung pro Farbgewicht gibt es bei gegebener Strahlungsintensität einen materialabhängigen oberen Grenzwert. Die von der färbenden Schicht im Laufe ihrer mittleren Lebensdauer zusätzlich in Wärme verwandelte bzw. daran verhinderte Energie betrug bei unseren Versuchen pro Gewichtsaufwand ein Vielfaches der mit chemischen Umsetzungen verbundenen Energien.

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Summary Increase or decrease of radiation absorption and reflection by change of colour of the superficial layers is considered as a physically analogous case of positive or negative catalysis. The consequences of a colour change under different external conditions can be characterized by comparison with certain boundary cases. Losses of moisture content of dark soil by evaporation could be reduced to the half by covering the surface with white dust. There exists a material dependent upper boundary value of the additional heating or cooling effect per weight unit of colour increasing with decreasing thickness of the layer. With our experiments, the energy additionally transformed into heat or prevented from being transformed into heat by the colouring layer in the course of its life amounted, per unit of weight, to many times the multiple of the energies connected with chemical conversions.

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Résumé L'accroissement et la diminution du pouvoir absorbant et réflexif de couches superficielles changeant de couleur est un phénomène analogue à la catalyse resp. positive et négative. On peut caractériser les conséquences d'un changement de couleur sous différentes conditions extérieures par une comparaison avec certains cas limites.Les pertes d'humidité par évaporation d'un sol sombre ont pu être réduites de moitié par aspersion de poussières blanches. Lorsqu'une couche de couleur diminuant d'épaisseur voit augmenter son pouvoir chauffant ou réfrigérant par unité de poids de couleur, il existe pour une intensité donnée de rayonnement une valeur limite supérieure dépendant de la substance. L'énergie supplémentaire transformée en chaleur, ou celle qui n'a pu l'être, par la couche de couleur au cours de sa vie moyenne s'est élevée dans nos essais à un multiple de celle qui résulte de transformations chimiques, par unité de poids.

     

Unusual exsolution phenomena in omphacite and partial replacement of phengite by phlogopite + kyanite in an eclogite from the Erzgebirge

In the Erzgebirge Crystalline Complex, eclogites occur in three different high pressure (HP) units (1, 2 and 3) recording contrasting pressure (P)–temperature (T) conditions. Eclogites from HP-unit 1 experienced peak metamorphic conditions in the coesite stability field at about 33 kbar/850 °C. Commonly, these eclogites from HP-unit 1 are all very similar, with an eclogitic peak assemblage of omphacite–garnet–coesite–K-feldspar, rarely accompanied by kyanite, and omphacites systematically deviating from a stoichiometric composition. In contrast, an eclogite recently found near Blumenau, is mineralogically and geochemically different from the typical eclogites of HP-unit 1. This unusual eclogite reveals the eclogitic equilibrium assemblage omphacite–garnet–coesite–phengite–phlogopite–kyanite, and yields metamorphic peak conditions of 870 °C and >29 kbar. There is clear textural evidence of the formation of phlogopite and kyanite under partial consumption of phengite and garnet. Moreover, the omphacite is stoichiometric and contains abundant exsolution lamellae, the thickest of which were identified as quartz by the electron microprobe. The finer lamellae were studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Oligoclase was identified as an exsolution phase. Other lamellae proved to consist of K-white mica, also interpreted as exsolution. Prior to exsolution, the omphacite composition must have been cation-deficient, as that of the other, common HP-unit 1 eclogites. These non-stoichiometric compositions are ascribed to partial substitution by the Ca-Eskola pyroxene component, which calculates to an average of 8 mol% for omphacite in HP-unit 1 eclogites. According to experiments, this substitution becomes significant at P > 30 kbar. Exsolution of K-white mica may indicate hydroxyl defects in the original omphacite, also favoured by high pressure. Oligoclase and K-white mica exsolution from Ca-Eskola-rich clinopyroxene has not previously been reported. The omphacite has a disordered C2/c structure; and in just one case very small (a few tens of nanometres) antiphase domains, resulting from the C2/c to P2/n transformation, are present. These features may indicate a brief thermal history and rapid tectonic processes. Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 20 April 2000     

Meeresoptische Messungen während schwerer Stürme auf der Forschungsplattform “Nordsee” vom 14. November bis zum 8. Dezember 1980

Ocean Dynamics - Meeresoptische Messungen auf der Forschungsplattform “Nordsee” haben gezeigt, daß dort während schwerer Stürme, hauptsächlich durch den Einfluß...     

Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.