Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps

This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.     

Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Lidar observations of turbulent vortex shedding by an isolated topographic feature

Scanning measurements by a single wavelength lidar (1.06 m) were made downwind of the Pt. Sur rock, an isolated hill (height 110 m) along the California coast. Turbulent eddies (approximate diameter 50 m) were observed detaching from a stationary aerosol feature above the rock and moving downwind. Under conditions with a high Froude number [1.8], the Strouhal number [0.22] of vortex shedding was close to that observed in tank experiments with a Reynolds number of 200.     

Orientation of the galactic magnetic field in the vicinity of the solar system

It is found from analysis of the position angles of the plane of polarization of about 3000 stars (¦b¦ 5° andP 0.5%) that the angle between the magnetic field and the equatorial plane of the galaxy is approximately 0–5°. The distance within which the local magnetic fields of the galaxy have a greater effect on the position angles of the plane of polarization than the galactic magnetic field is estimated to be about 500 pc. The effect of the galactic magnetic field becomes dominant for distancesr 1000 pc.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 553–559, November, 1996.     

Neutron stars in the multidimensional einstein theory of gravitation

The radius, mass, total number of baryons, and other parameters of static, spherically symmetric, superdense stars are calculated. A model with one Ricci-flat inner space of arbitrary dimensionality and the approximation p₁=?0.5ε + ap for additional components of the energy — momentum tensor are used (ε and ρ are the total energy density and the pressure of the stellar matter and a is a fitting parameter). In the case of white dwarfs, the results of the multidimensional theory do not depend on the dimensionality D of space-time for ?10 ? a ? 10 and coincide with the analogous data of the general theory of relativity (GTR). For neutron stars there is a dependence on D and a. For D>4, in particular, the greatest mass M_max of a neutron star as a function of a has a maximum at 3<a(D) ? 4, which exceeds the greatest mass M _max ⁰ =2.14 M_⊙ in the GTR. A comparison of theoretical results with observational data determines the allowable values of a. Data for PSR 1913 + 16 lead to 0.2 ≤ a ≤ 9.2 in the case of D=26, while the results of [P. C. Joss and S. A. Rappaport, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys.,22, 537 (1984)] lead to the stricter limits 1 ≤ a ≤ 7.4.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

A filament eruption and accompanying coronal field changes on November 5, 1992

An H filament eruption on November 5, 1992 was fully observed in H with the Hida Flare Monitoring Telescope, while Yohkoh's Soft X-ray Telescope observed the pre- and post-eruption evolution of the coronal magnetic fields. From the H data, including the red and blue wings, we have reconstructed the rise of the filament, including trajectory, velocity, and acceleration. In combination with the Yohkoh data this reconstruction suggests that the filament had several interactions with other coronal magnetic fields during the eruption. The Yohkoh data also shows pre-eruption changes in the coronal fields and several post-eruption bright coronal structures. The pre-eruption changes are interpreted as a partial opening of the corona, indicating that it is not necessary to have a complete opening of the corona in order for a filament to erupt and we discuss the several possible contributions from emerging flux. The post-event bright coronal structures are compared with theory and with a cleaner filament eruption event on July 31, 1992. These comparisons suggest that, although there are many similarities, it is hard to completely reconcile the observations with the existing theory.     

Micromechanics of the velocity and normal stress dependence of rock friction

Among the second-order effects on friction the most important are those of variable normal stress and of slip velocity. Velocity weakening, which is usually considered the source of the stick-slip instability in rock friction, has been observed in velocity stepping experiments with Westerly granite. The friction change, , was –0.01 to –0.008 for a tenfold velocity increase. Using normal closure measurements, we observed dilation upon each increase in sliding rate. We also observed, for the first time, time-dependent closure between surfaces during static loading. The dilation that occurred during the velocity stepping experiment was found to be that expected from the static time-dependent closure phenomenon. This change in closure was used to predict friction change with an elastic contact model. The calculated friction change which results from a change in contact area and asperity interlocking, is in good agreement with the observed velocity dependence of steady-state friction. Variable normal stress during sliding has two effects, first in creating new partial slip contacts and locking some existing fully sliding contacts and second in increasing interlocking, for instance when normal load is suddenly increased. As a result, a transient change in friction occurs upon a sudden change in normal load.     

An assessment of field evidence for ‘Byerlee’ friction

Structural analyses of the angles of frictional lock-up for fault sets that have become progressively misoriented, together with field observations from seismology, geomorphology, and borehole stress measurements, suggest that Byerlee friction coefficients (0.6<<0.85) are widely applicable to natural sliding surfaces with displacements of up to a few kilometres in the upper crust, from the surface of the earth to seismogenic depths. Extensional normal faults operating under presumed vertical trajectories of extreme compressive stress provide some of the best evidence for frictional lock-up followed by the initiation of new favorably oriented faults, but similar lock-up phenomena also occur in thrust and strike-slip fault systems.However, extensional detachments which appear to have formed and remained active at very low dips (<15°) lie well outside the dip range of currently active normal faults, requiring stress trajectories that deviate significantly from the vertical and horizontal during their initiation and perhaps also during their continued reactivation. Other conspicuous exceptions to the pattern of frictional lock-up expected from Byerlee friction are major transform structures, such as the San Andreas fault in California, which remain active though oriented at high angles to the maximum principal compression. On the basis of the evidence afforded by the lower displacement faults, the apparent weakness of such structures seems most likely to arise from locally elevated fluid pressure, rather than from the presence of anomalously low-friction material within the fault zones.     

Retrograde fluid infiltration in the high-grade Modum Complex South Norway: evidence for age,source and REE mobility

The high-grade metamorphic basement of the Modum Complex, South Norway,exhibits retrogradation and alteration due to late stage fluid infiltration.Extensive alteration zones of albite-and calcite-rich veining occur especiallywithin and around numerous metagabbros. The gabbros, intruded at 1224±15Ma, are now partly altered to amphibolites due to the subsequent high-grade metamorphism.Two generations of albite-rich rocks have been recognized: (1) a fine-grained, foliated type;(2) a coarse-grained, crosscutting type. Both types show a typical greenschist facies mineralassemblage; albite ± actinolite ± chlorite ± talc. The calcite veins/dykesrepresent a younger generation of veins than both albite-rich types. U–Pb data for spheneof type (1) yielded an age of 1080±3 Ma, determining a point on the retrogradeP-T-t path of the Modum Complex. Increasing albitisation of themetagabbros leads to a decrease in(¹⁴³ND/¹⁴⁴Nd)_oand an increase in (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶)_o.Albite- and calcite-rich samples show negative _Nd and positive _Sr, suggesting that fluids which interacted with the metagabbros originated from a crustal reservoir. The Nd and Sr isotopic data show disequilibrium at the microscale as well as at the macroscale. Negative Sm–Nd model ages of the albite-rich rocks demonstrate that rare-earth elements (REEs) were mobile and fractionated during albitisation.