Capture zone,travel time,and solute-transport predictions using inverse modeling and different geological models

Six regional-scale flow models are compared to gain insight into how different representations of hydraulic-conductivity distributions affect model calibration and predictions. Deterministic geological models were used to define hydraulic-conductivity distributions in two steady-state flow models that were calibrated to heads and baseflow estimates using inverse techniques. Optimized hydraulic-conductivity estimates from the two models were used to calculate layer and model mean hydraulic-conductivity values. Despite differences in the two geological models, inverse calibration produced mean hydraulic-conductivity values for the entire model domain that are quite similar. The layer and model mean hydraulic-conductivity values were used to generate four additional flow models and forward runs were performed. All of the models adequately simulate the observed heads and total baseflow. The six flow models were used to predict the steady-state impact of a proposed well field, and the flow solutions were used in simulating particle tracking and solute transport. Results of the predictive simulations show that, for this example, simple models of heterogeneity produce capture zones similar to more complex models, but with very different travel times and breakthroughs. Inverse modeling combined with different geological models can provide a measure of capture zone and breakthrough reliability.

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Resumen Se compara seis modelos de flujo a escala regional para conocer cómo afecta a la calibración y a la predicción del modelo diversas representaciones de la distribución de la conductividad hidráulica. Se ha utilizado modelos geológicos deterministas para definir las distribuciones de la conductividad hidráulica en dos modelos de flujo permanente, calibrados mediante técnicas inversas con niveles piezométricos y estimaciones del flujo de base. Se ha adoptado estimaciones optimizadas de la conductividad hidráulica de los dos modelos para calcular las cotas de las capas y sus conductividades hidráulicas medias. A pesar de las diferencias entre ambos modelos geológicos, con la calibración inversa se obtiene valores similares de conductividad hidráulica en todo el dominio. Estos valores de las capas y de las conductividades hidráulicas medias han servido para generar cuatro modelos adicionales de flujo y realizar predicciones. Todos los modelos simulan de forma adecuada los niveles observados y los caudales de base. Los seis modelos han sido aplicados a la predicción del impacto estacionario de un campo de pozos, y las soluciones del flujo permiten simular el transporte de partículas y de solutos. Los resultados de estas predicciones muestran que, para este ejemplo, los modelos sencillos de la heterogeneidad dan lugar a zonas de captura similares a las generadas por modelos más complejos, pero aparecen grandes diferencias en los tiempos de tránsito y en las curvas de llegada. Una combinación de modelación inversa y de modelos geológicos diferentes puede proporcionar una medida de la fiabilidad de la zona de captura y de las curvas de llegada.

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Résumé Six modèles d'écoulement à l'échelle régionale sont comparés afin d'avoir un aperçu de la manière dont les différentes représentations de la distribution de la conductivité hydraulique affectent la calibration et les prédictions de modèles. Des modèles géologiques déterministes ont été utilisés pour définir les distributions de la conductivité hydraulique dans deux modèles d'écoulement en régime permanent qui ont été calibrés avec des estimations des charges et des écoulements de base faites par des techniques inverses. Les estimations optimisées de la conductivité hydraulique de ces deux modèles ont servi à calculer les valeurs de conductivité hydraulique moyenne des couches et du modèle. Malgré des différences entre les deux modèles géologiques, la calibration inverse a donné des valeurs de conductivité hydraulique moyenne pour le domaine complet du modèle qui sont complètement semblables. Les valeurs de la conductivité moyenne des couches et du modèle ont été utilisées pour générer quatre modèles d'écoulement supplémentaires et des traitements ont été effectués. Tous les modèles simulent correctement les charges observées et l'écoulement de base total. Les six modèles ont servi à prédire l'impact en régime permanent d'un champ captant projeté et les solutions d'écoulement ont été utilisées dans une simulation par suivi de particules et de transport de soluté. Les résultats de simulations prédictives montrent que, pour cet exemple, de simples modèles d'hétérogénéité fournissent des zones de capture semblables aux modèles plus complexes, mais pour des temps de parcours et des restitutions très différents. Une modélisation inverse combinée à différents modèles géologiques peut assurer une mesure de la zone de capture et une fiabilité de la restitution.

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Martian hillside gullies and icelandic analogs

We report observations of Icelandic hillside gully systems that are near duplicates of gullies observed on high-latitude martian hillsides. The best Icelandic analogs involve basaltic talus slopes at the angle of repose, with gully formation by debris flows initiated by ground water saturation, and/or by drainage of water from upslope cliffs. We report not only the existence of Mars analog gullies, but also an erosional sequence of morphologic forms, found both on Mars and in Iceland. The observations support hypotheses calling for creation of martian gullies by aqueous processes. Issues remain whether the water in each case comes only from surficial sources, such as melting of ground ice or snow, or from underground sources such as aquifers that gain surface access in hillsides. Iceland has many examples of the former, but the latter mechanism is not ruled out. Our observations are consistent with the martian debris flow mechanism of F. Costard et al. (2001c, Science295, 110-113), except that classic debris flows begin at midslope more frequently than on Mars. From morphologic observations, we suggest that some martian hillside gully systems not only involve significant evolution by extended erosive activity, but gully formation may occur in episodes, and the time interval since the last episode is considerably less than the time interval needed to erase the gully through normal martian obliteration processes.     

A combinatorial optimization scheme for parameter structure identification in ground water modeling

This research develops a methodology for parameter structure identification in ground water modeling. For a given set of observations, parameter structure identification seeks to identify the parameter dimension, its corresponding parameter pattern and values. Voronoi tessellation is used to parameterize the unknown distributed parameter into a number of zones. Accordingly, the parameter structure identification problem is equivalent to finding the number and locations as well as the values of the basis points associated with the Voronoi tessellation. A genetic algorithm (GA) is allied with a grid search method and a quasi-Newton algorithm to solve the inverse problem. GA is first used to search for the near-optimal parameter pattern and values. Next, a grid search method and a quasi-Newton algorithm iteratively improve the GA's estimates. Sensitivities of state variables to parameters are calculated by the sensitivity-equation method. MODFLOW and MT3DMS are employed to solve the coupled flow and transport model as well as the derived sensitivity equations. The optimal parameter dimension is determined using criteria based on parameter uncertainty and parameter structure discrimination. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology, in which the true transmissivity field is characterized by either a continuous distribution or a distribution that can be characterized by zones. We conclude that the optimized transmissivity zones capture the trend and distribution of the true transmissivity field.     

Xxth International Congress of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

The XXth International Congress of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing was held at the Istanbul Convention and Exhibition Centre (ICEC), Turkey, from 12th to 23rd July 2004. Reports are given on the Congress as a whole, including the General Assembly, some Technical Commission activities and the Congress Exhibition. Papers from the Congress are published in Volume XXXV of the International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences.     

Divergent evolution in fluviokarst landscapes of central Kentucky

Central Kentucky is characterized by a mixture of karst and ?uvial features, typically manifested as mosaic of karst‐rich/channel‐poor (KRCP) and channel‐rich/karst‐poor (CRKP) environments. At the regional scale the location and distribution of KRCP and CRKP areas are not always systematically related to structural, lithological, topographic, or other controls. This study examines the relationship of KRCP and CRKP zones along the Kentucky River gorge area, where rapid incision in the last 1·5 million years has lowered local base levels and modi?ed slopes on the edge of the inner bluegrass plateau. At the scale of detailed ?eld mapping on foot within a 4 km² area, the development of karst and ?uvial features is controlled by highly localized structural and topographic constraints, and can be related to slope changes associated with retreat of the Kentucky River gorge escarpment. A conceptual model of karst/?uvial transitions is presented, which suggests that minor, localized variations are suf?cient to trigger a karst–?uvial or ?uvial–karst switch when critical slope thresholds are crossed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interference Testing for Atmospheric HOx Measurements by Laser-induced Fluorescence

Accurate OH and HO₂ (collectively called HO_x) measurements by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) may be contaminated by spurious signals from interfering atmospheric chemicals or from the instrument itself. Interference tests must be conducted to ensure that observed OH signal originates solely from ambient OH and is not due to instrument artifacts. Several tests were performed on the Penn State LIF HO_x instrument, both in the laboratory and in the field. Theseincluded measurements of the instrument's zero signal by using either zero air or perfluoropropylene to remove OH, examination of spectral interferences from naphthalene, sulfur dioxide, and formaldehyde, and tests of interferences by addition of suspected interfering atmospheric chemicals, including ozone, hydrogen peroxide, nitrous acid, formaldehyde, nitric acid, acetone, and organic peroxy radicals (RO₂). All tests lacked evidence ofsignificant interferences for measurements in the atmosphere, including highly polluted urban environments.     

Habitat requirements for submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: Water quality, light regime, and physical-chemical factors

We developed an algorithm for calculating habitat suitability for seagrasses and related submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) at coastal sites where monitoring data are available for five water quality variables that govern light availability at the leaf surface. We developed independent estimates of the minimum light required for SAV survival both as a percentage of surface light passing though the water column to the depth of SAV growth (PLW _min) and as a percentage of light reaching reaching leaves through the epiphyte layer (PLL _min). Value were computed by applying, as inputs to this algorithm, statistically dervived values for water quality variables that correspond to thresholds for SAV presence in Chesapeake Bay. These estimates ofPLW _min andPLL _min compared well with the values established from a literature review. Calcultations account for tidal range, and total light attenuation is partitioned into water column and epiphyte contributions. Water column attenuation is further partitioned into effects of chlorophylla (chla), total suspended solids (TSS) and other substances. We used this algorithm to predict potential SAV presence throughout the Bay where calculated light available at plant leaves exceededPLL _min. Predictions closely matched results of aerial photographic monitoring surveys of SAV distribution. Correspondence between predictions and observations was particularly strong in the mesohaline and polythaline regions, which contain 75–80% of all potential SAV sites in this estuary. The method also allows for independent assessment of effects of physical and chemical factors other than light in limiting SAV growth and survival. Although this algorithm was developed with data from Chesapeake Bay, its general structure allows it to be calibrated and used as a quantitative tool for applying water quality data to define suitability of specific sites as habitats for SAV survival in diverse coastal environments worldwide.     

Precise GRACE baseline determination using GPS

Precision relative navigation is an essential aspect of spacecraft formation flying missions, both from an operational and a scientific point of view. When using GPS as a relative distance sensor, dual-frequency receivers are required for high accuracy at large inter-satellite separations. This allows for a correction of the relative ionospheric path delay and enables double difference integer ambiguity resolution. Although kinematic relative positioning techniques demonstrate promising results for hardware-in-the-loop simulations, they were found to lack an adequate robustness in real-world applications. To overcome this limitation, an extended Kalman Filter modeling the relative spacecraft dynamics has been developed. The filter processes single difference GPS pseudorange and carrier phase observations to estimate the relative position and velocity along with empirical accelerations and carrier phase ambiguities. In parallel, double difference carrier phase ambiguities are resolved on both frequencies using the least square ambiguity decorrelation adjustment (LAMBDA) method in order to fully exploit the inherent measurement accuracy. The combination of reduced dynamic filtering with the LAMBDA method results in smooth relative position estimates as well as fast and reliable ambiguity resolution. The proposed method has been validated with data from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) mission. For an 11-day data arc, the resulting solution matches the GRACE K-Band Ranging System measurements with an accuracy of 1 mm, whereby 83% of the double difference ambiguities are resolved.     

On the Behavior of the Stable Boundary Layer and the Role of Initial Conditions

Previous studies of the stable atmospheric boundary layer using techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems (MCNIDER et al., 1995) have shown that the equations support multiple solutions in certain parameter spaces. When geostrophic speed is used as a bifurcation parameter, two stable equilibria are found—a warm solution corresponding to the high-wind regime where the surface layer of the atmosphere stays coupled to the outer layer, and a cold solution corresponding to the low-wind, decoupled case. Between the stable equilibria is an unstable region where multiple solutions exist. The bifurcation diagram is a classic S shape with the foldback region showing the multiple solutions. These studies were carried out using a simple two-layer model of the atmosphere with a fairly complete surface energy budget. This allowed the dynamical analysis to be carried out on a coupled set of four ordinary differential equations. The present paper extends this work by examining additional bifurcation parameters and, more importantly, analyzing a set of partial differential equations with full vertical dependence. Simple mathematical representations of classical problems in dynamical analysis often exhibit interesting behavior, such as multiple solutions, that is not retained in the behavior of more complete representations. In the present case the S-shaped bifurcation diagram remains with only slight variations from the two-layer model. For the parameter space in the foldback region, the evolution of the boundary layer may be dramatically affected by the initial conditions at sunset. An eigenvalue analysis carried out to determine whether the system might support pure limit-cycle behavior showed that purely complex eigenvalues are not found. Thus, any cyclic behavior is likely to be transient.