An analytical solution for rapidly predicting post-fire peak streamflow for small watersheds in southern California

Following wildfires, the probability of flooding and debris flows increase, posing risks to human lives, downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In southern California (USA), the Rowe, Countryman, and Storey (RCS) 1949 methodology is an empirical method that is used to rapidly estimate post-fire peak streamflow. We re-evaluated the accuracy of RCS for 33 watersheds under current conditions. Pre-fire peak streamflow prediction performance was low, where the average R² was 0.29 and average RMSE was 1.10 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year recurrence interval events, respectively. Post-fire, RCS performance was also low, with an average R² of 0.26 and RMSE of 15.77 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year events. We demonstrated that RCS overgeneralizes watershed processes and does not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variability in systems affected by wildfire and extreme weather events and often underpredicted peak streamflow without sediment bulking factors. A novel application of machine learning was used to identify critical watershed characteristics including local physiography, land cover, geology, slope, aspect, rainfall intensity, and soil burn severity, resulting in two random forest models with 45 and five parameters (RF-45 and RF-5, respectively) to predict post-fire peak streamflow. RF-45 and RF-5 performed better than the RCS method; however, they demonstrated the importance and reliance on data availability. The important parameters identified by the machine learning techniques were used to create a three-dimensional polynomial function to calculate post-fire peak streamflow in small catchments in southern California during the first year after fire (R² = 0.82; RMSE = 6.59 cms/km²) which can be used as an interim tool by post-fire risk assessment teams. We conclude that a significant increase in data collection of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall intensity, streamflow, and sediment loading in channels will help to guide future model development to quantify post-fire flood risk.     

Towards estimating root‐zone soil moisture using surface multispectral and thermal sensing: A spectral and hydrometeorological dataset from the Dookie experiment site,Victoria, Australia

This paper describes surface hydrometeorological and spectral datasets collected from two tower sites located in the University of Melbourne's Dookie experimental farm, Victoria, Australia. The datasets were collected from different vegetation types including wheat, canola, and grazed pasture during the 2012, 2013, and 2014 cropping seasons. The dataset includes 30‐min frequency latent and sensible heat flux measurements and layer‐average soil moisture data at profile depths of 0–5, 0–30, 30–60, 60–90, and 90–120 cm. Air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, and incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation data were also collected from two locations in the study area. The dataset described in this paper is available online.     

Multiple P–T–d–t paths reveal the evolution of the final Nuna assembly in northeast Australia

The final assembly of the Mesoproterozoic supercontinent Nuna was marked by the collision of Laurentia and Australia at 1.60 Ga, which is recorded in the Georgetown Inlier of NE Australia. Here, we decipher the metamorphic evolution of this final Nuna collisional event using petrostructural analysis, major and trace element compositions of key minerals, thermodynamic modelling, and multi-method geochronology. The Georgetown Inlier is characterised by deformed and metamorphosed 1.70–1.62 Ga sedimentary and mafic rocks, which were intruded by c. 1.56 Ga old S-type granites. Garnet Lu–Hf and monazite U–Pb isotopic analyses distinguish two major metamorphic events (M1 at c. 1.60 Ga and M2 at c. 1.55 Ga), which allows at least two composite fabrics to be identified at the regional scale—c. 1.60 Ga S1 (consisting in fabrics S1a and S1b) and c. 1.55 Ga S2 (including fabrics S2a and S2b). Also, three tectono-metamorphic domains are distinguished: (a) the western domain, with S1 defined by low-P (LP) greenschist facies assemblages; (b) the central domain, where S1 fabric is preserved as medium-P (MP) amphibolite facies relicts, and locally as inclusion trails in garnet wrapped by the regionally dominant low-P amphibolite facies S2 fabric; and (c) the eastern domain dominated by upper amphibolite to granulite facies S2 foliation. In the central domain, 1.60 Ga MP–medium-T (MT) metamorphism (M1) developed within the staurolite–garnet stability field, with conditions ranging from 530–550°C at 6–7 kbar (garnet cores) to 620–650°C at 8–9 kbar (garnet rims), and it is associated with S1 fabric. The onset of 1.55 Ga LP–high-T (HT) metamorphism (M2) is marked by replacement of staurolite by andalusite (M2a/D2a), which was subsequently pseudomorphed by sillimanite (M2b/D2b) where granite and migmatite are abundant. P–T conditions ranged from 600 to 680°C and 4–6 kbar for the M2b sillimanite stage. 1.60 Ga garnet relicts within the S2 foliation highlight the progressive obliteration of the S1 fabric by regional S2 in the central zone during peak M2 metamorphism. In the eastern migmatitic complex, partial melting of paragneiss and amphibolite occurred syn- to post- S2, at 730–770°C and 6–8 kbar, and at 750–790°C and 6 kbar, respectively. The pressure–temperature–deformation–time paths reconstructed for the Georgetown Inlier suggest a c. 1.60 Ga M1/D1 event recorded under greenschist facies conditions in the western domain and under medium-P and medium-T conditions in the central domain. This event was followed by the regional 1.56–1.54 Ga low-P and high-T phase (M2/D2), extensively recorded in the central and eastern domains. Decompression between these two metamorphic events is ascribed to an episode of exhumation. The two-stage evolution supports the previous hypothesis that the Georgetown Inlier preserves continental collisional and subsequent thermal perturbation associated with granite emplacement.     

In situ cosmogenic exposure ages from the Isle of Skye,northwest Scotland: implications for the timing of deglaciation and readvance from 15 to 11 ka

We present 10 in situ cosmogenic exposure ages from two moraines on the Isle of Skye. The Strollamus medial moraine was deposited during deglaciation of the Devensian ice sheet and yields a mean exposure age from five samples of 14.3 ± 0.9 ka. The moraine age indicates that a significant ice mass existed on Skye at the time of a regional readvance recorded in Wester Ross, northwest Scotland. Taken at face value the ages suggest that deglaciation did not occur until well into Greenland Interstade 1. The Slapin moraine represents the local limit of the Loch Lomond Readvance (LLR) and yields a mean exposure age from five samples of 11.5 ± 0.7 ka, which is consistent with deposition relating to the LLR. These ages suggest that the maximum extent may have been reached late in the stadial and that some glaciers may have remained active until after the climatic amelioration that marks its end. This scenario is considered unlikely given the nature of the climate during this period, which leads us to call for a locally calibrated production rate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global warming estimates,media expectations,and the asymmetry of scientific challenge

Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date.     

Biological characterization of a whale-fall near Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Video analysis of a whale-fall discovered in the northeast Pacific Ocean, off Vancouver Island at a depth of 1288 m during ROV diving operations has identified 26 taxa of deep-sea benthic organisms inhabiting the seafloor immediately surrounding remnants of the whale skeleton. A photo-mosaic derived from high-definition video provides a quantitative visual record of the present condition of the site, the species richness, and substrate preference. Only the skull and caudal vertebrae remains of this large whale skeleton are estimated to have been approximately 16.5 m in length. Most organisms identified near the whale-fall are common benthic deep-sea fauna, typical of this water depth and seafloor composition. Much of this species richness comes from sessile suspension feeding cnidarians attached to the numerous glacial dropstones found throughout the area rather than the presence of the whale skeleton. Seep and bone specialists are rare (4 taxa) and may be, in part, a remnant population from a sulphophilic stage of whale-fall decomposition. Evidence of past colonization by Osedax sp. is visible on the remaining bones and we conclude that rapid degradation of the missing bones has occurred at this site as has been observed at whale-falls off central California in Monterey Canyon.