Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.     

Trends in the seasonal length and opening dates of a winter road in the western James Bay region,Ontario, Canada

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In northern Canada, winter roads are essential for communities. The duration of the winter road season depends on particular meteorological conditions. In this...     

Holocene climate and environmental history of East Greenland inferred from lake sediments

Prediction of future Arctic climate and environmental changes, as well as associated ice-sheet behavior, requires placing present-day warming and reduced ice extent into a long-term context. Here we present a record of Holocene climate and glacier fluctuations inferred from the paleolimnology of small lakes near Istorvet ice cap in East Greenland. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of organic remains indicate deglaciation of the region before ~10,500 years BP, after which time the ice cap receded rapidly to a position similar to or less extensive than present, and lake sediments shifted from glacio-lacustrine clay to relatively organic-rich gyttja. The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. This restricted ice extent suggests that climate was similar to or warmer than present, in keeping with other records from Greenland that indicate a warm early and middle Holocene. Middle Holocene magnetic susceptibility oscillations, with a ~200-year frequency in one of the lakes, may relate to solar influence on local catchment processes. Following thousands of years of restricted extent, Istorvet ice cap advanced to within 365 m of its late Holocene limit at ~AD 1150. Variability in the timing of glacial and climate fluctuations, as well as of sediment organic content changes among East Greenland lacustrine records, may be a consequence of local factors, such as elevation, continentality, water depth, turbidity, and seabirds, and highlights the need for a detailed spatial array of datasets to address questions about Holocene climate change.     

Making a Cultural Landscape: The Case of Dongshan River Basin,Taiwan

Developing a cultural landscape establishes a regional identity, creates value for residents, and has potential to diversify a community’s economic base due to tourism development. Changes in local landscape morphology lead to multidimensional challenges in terms of the environmental consciousness and cultural identity of residents. The study examined residents’ perception of changes in their local landscape regarding its visual form, the meanings they constructed with the landscape, and their functional experience of living and working in it. Findings revealed that in its agricultural era, the visual landscape, meanings, and experience consisted mainly of physical elements connected with residents’ small-scale agricultural and fishery production. In the tourism era, the visual landscape, meanings, and experience were connected to recreational settings and iconic landmarks associated with the tourism industry. Both agricultural and tourism development occurred in ways that complemented each other and built a cultural landscape that connected the past with the present.     

Feedback Mechanisms For The Atmosphere And Ocean Surface

Two kinds of feedback mechanisms in the coupling process between the atmosphere and ocean surface are identified in this paper. One is a negative feedback mechanism, which is effective in the dynamic interaction processes through momentum flux exchange. In this mechanism,the ocean extracts momentum from the atmosphere as a forcing field to generate waves, which decelerates atmospheric motions, lessening the intensity of synoptic systems. The second is a positive feedback mechanism, which is effective in the thermal interaction processes through heat flux exchange. This is a mechanism that is effective in the transport of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere from the underlyingocean surface. As a result, the atmosphere obtains energy from the ocean, which intensifies atmospheric motions. For storm conditions typical of North Atlantic mid-latitudes, we consider these thermal and dynamical nteractions, the dominance of one over the other, and related implications for storm intensification.     

Uncertainty Modeling in Buffer Operations Applied to Connectivity Analysis

In this paper we will study the potential connectivity of red squirrels in a fragmented landscape, using a buffer operation that takes into account the difficulty of moving through the landscape. The outcome of such an analysis is greatly influenced by the various sources of uncertainty that are introduced in the model. Two main sources of uncertainty can be identified: source layer uncertainty and model uncertainty. In this paper the propagation of source layer uncertainty resulting from a multivariate statistical classification of remotely sensed data is studied using Monte Carlo simulation, taking the spatial structure of uncertainty into account. Model uncertainty results from the adoption of deterministic model parameters regarding the dispersal capacity and the landscape effect, and is examined using fuzzy set theory. Comparing the outcome of error sensitized models to the observed dispersal activity of squirrels, demonstrates how modeling of uncertainty can help to explain the dispersal activity of red squirrels.     

Analysis of an estuarine striped bass population: Effects of environmental conditions during early life

Estuarine fish populations are exposed to a variety of environmental conditions that cause both short-term variability and long-term trends in abundance. We analyzed an extensive data set for striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the San Francisco Estuary to refine our understanding of how environmental variability influences recruitment. We examined the effects of environmental variability during early life stages on subsequent recruitment (age 3 yr), and the degree to which conditions in early life may have contributed to a long-term decline in abundance of adult striped bass in the San Francisco Estuary. Survival from egg to young-of-the-year varied strongly with freshwater flow; this effect apparently occurred within the first week or two of life, a time period that encompasses transport of eggs and larvae from the rivers to rearing areas and the onset of feeding. The rate of freshwater flow to pumping facilities that export freshwater from the system had small or sporadic effects on survival during the first month or two of life. Although many young striped bass between ages 2 and 8 mo were entrained in export pumping facilities, the resulting high mortality was unrelated to total mortality rates determined from field data on young striped bass. This lack of effect was apparently due to strong density-dependent mortality occurring between ages 1 mo and 3 yr (Kimmerer et al. 2000). The available data do not support previously suggested relationships between recruitment and freshwater flow during early life, or between gross estimates of pesticide input and survival of early life stages. We used a simple life-cycle model to show that various combined factors could have led to a decline in adult abundance, particularly a large and increasing adult mortality, but that events early in life probably did not contribute substantially to the decline. These results demonstrate that several decades of monitoring data from numerous life stages are needed to distinguish among alternative hypotheses about environmental influences on populations of estuarine fish.     

A Compilation of New and Published Major and Trace Element Data for NIST SRM 610 and NIST SRM 612 Glass Reference Materials

Microanalytical trace element techniques (such as ion probe or laser ablation ICP-MS) are hampered by a lack of well characterized, homogeneous standards. Two silicate glass reference materials produced by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), NIST SRM 610 and NIST SRM 612, have been shown to be homogeneous and are spiked with up to sixty one trace elements at nominal concentrations of 500 μg g-1 and 50 μg g-1 respectively. These samples (supplied as 3 mm wafers) are equivalent to NIST SRM 611 and NIST SRM 613 respectively (which are supplied as 1 mm wafers) and are becoming more widely used as potential microanalytical reference materials. NIST however, only certifies up to eight elements in these glasses. Here we have compiled concentration data from approximately sixty published works for both glasses, and have produced new analyses from our laboratories. Compilations are presented for the matrix composition of these glasses and for fifty eight trace elements. The trace element data includes all available new and published data, and summaries present the overall average and standard deviation, the range, median, geometric mean and a preferred average (which excludes all data outside ± one standard deviation of the overall average). For the elements which have been certified, there is a good agreement between the compiled averages and the NIST data. This compilation is designed to provide useful new working values for these reference materials.