GhostNet marine debris survey in the Gulf of Alaska--satellite guidance and aircraft observations

Marine debris, particularly debris that is composed of lost or abandoned fishing gear, is recognized as a serious threat to marine life, vessels, and coral reefs. The goal of the GhostNet project is the detection of derelict nets at sea through the use of weather and ocean models, drifting buoys and satellite imagery to locate convergent areas where nets are likely to collect, followed by airborne surveys with trained observers and remote sensing instruments to spot individual derelict nets. These components of GhostNet were first tested together in the field during a 14-day marine debris survey of the Gulf of Alaska in July and August 2003. Model, buoy, and satellite data were used in flight planning. A manned aircraft survey with visible and IR cameras and a LIDAR instrument located debris in the targeted locations, including 102 individual pieces of debris of anthropogenic or terrestrial origin.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.     

A renaissance in studies of ancient life

In the Origin of Species, published a century‐and‐a‐half ago, Darwin was mystified by the lack of a ‘pre‐Cambrian’ fossil record, the existence of which he regarded as pivotal to his theory of evolution. For the next 100 years, this ‘missing’ fossil record—unknown and thought unknowable'stood out as arguably the single greatest blemish to Darwin's theory. Beginning in the 1950s, the answer to Darwin's problem began to be unearthed, a Precambrian record of flourishing communities of microscopic organisms now known to extend to 3500 million years ago. During recent years, studies of such ancient microbes have markedly increased, spurred by an influx of new workers and, especially, by the introduction of new analytical techniques, three of which are featured here: confocal laser scanning microscopy, and Raman‐spectral and fluorescence‐spectral imagery. Used together, these techniques provide evidence of the three‐dimensional form, cellular anatomy, and molecular structure of rock‐embedded microscopic fossils and of the minerals in which they are entombed that is unavailable by any other means.     

Temporal variation of228Ra in the near-surface Gulf of Mexico

The Mn-fiber technique for extracting radium from seawater has proved useful for studying the marine geochemistry of²²⁸Ra. In the Gulf of Mexico, this technique was used to measure the surface and near-surface distribution of²²⁶Ra and²²⁸Ra. The observed surface distribution of²²⁸Ra, and particularly the radium activity ratio (228/226) can be explained by known circulation patterns, or, when local surface currents are not well understood, may provide insight into their general characteristics.The radium activity ratio has increased from 0.5 in 1968 to 0.7 in 1973 in the surface Gulf of Mexico. This observed increase cannot be attributed to known anthropogenic or natural source perturbations within the Caribbean Sea-Gulf of Mexico system. Possible causes include a change in the residence time for near-surface water, or variations in the relative dominance of the two sources for water entering the eastern Caribbean; the North Equatorial Current and the Guiana Current.The temporal distribution of²²⁸Ra is unstable and naturally variable over a time period less than or equal to five years in the Gulf of Mexico and by extrapolation, the Caribbean Sea. Therefore, its usefulness in calculations of eddy diffusion coefficients for these regions is greatly diminished.     

Methane consumption in Cariaco Trench waters and sediments

Detailed measurements of CH₄ in the water column and sediments of the Cariaco Trench show that CH₄ is non-conservative in both environments. Concentration differences between the sediments and adjacent overlying water suggest that the sediments are the source of the water column CH₄. Co-metabolism of CH₄ by sulfate reducers appears to be the CH₄ sink in anoxic environments.     

Transfer functions under no-analog conditions: Experiments with Indian Ocean planktonic Foraminifera

This paper documents and investigates an important source of inaccuracy when paleoecological equations calibrated on modern biological data are applied downcore: fossil assemblages for which there are no modern analogs. Algebraic experiments with five calibration techniques are used to evaluate the sensitivity of the methods with respect to no-analog conditions. The five techniques are: species regression; principal-components regression [e.g., Imbrie, J., and Kipp, N. G. (1971). In “The Late Cenozoic Ages,” 71–181]; distance-index regression [Hecht, A. D. (1973). Micropaleontology19, 68–77]; diversity-index regression (Williams, D. F., and Johnson, W. C. (1975). Quaternary Research5, 237–250]; weighted-average method [Jones, J. I. (1964). Unpublished Ph. D. Thesis, Univ. of Wisconsin]. The experiments indicate that the four regression techniques extrapolate under no-analog conditions, yielding erroneous estimates. The weighted-average technique, however, does not extrapolate under no-analog conditions and consequently is more accurate than the other techniques. Methods for recognizing no-analog conditions downcore are discussed, and ways to minimize inaccuracy are suggested. Using several equations based on different calibration techniques is recommended. Divergent estimates suggest that no-analog conditions occur and that estimates are unreliable. The value determined by the weighted-average technique, however, may well be the most accurate.     

Late Wisconsinan glaciation models of northern Maine and adjacent Canada

Surficial stratigraphic units of Aroostook County, Maine, have been mapped and formal stratigraphic names for these units are proposed. Evidence exists for at least two distinct glacial phases which are represented by three tills. Two of these tills were deposited penecontemporaneously either as the result of coalescing ice sheets or as the result of the thermal regime existing within a single ice sheet. The oldest till is named the St. Francis and is correlated with the Chaudière Till of southeastern Quebec. The other tills are named the Mars Hill and Van Buren tills, respectively, and are correlated with the Lennoxville till of southeastern Quebec. Interbedded stratified sediments associated with the St. Francis till are correlated with the Gayhurst Formation. Stratified sediments associated with Van Buren and Mars Hill tills are correlated with post Lennoxville sediments of Quebec. Granite-gneiss erratics of Canadian Shield provenance in the Van Buren till indicate advance of the Laurentide ice into northern Maine during late Wisconsinan time. Moraines in southern Aroostook County with associated outwash and eskers record general recession from coastal Maine. Recession occurred after the formation of the Pineo Ridge moraine in Maine and the St. Antonin-Highland Front moraine complex in Quebec. The Caribou-Winterville moraine complex in northern Maine marks the boundary between the penecontemporaneously deposited Van Buren and Mars Hill surface tills and is correlated with the Grand Falls moraine at Grand Falls, New Brunswick.