Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA

Probabilistic analysis has been used as an effective tool to evaluate uncertainty so prevalent in variables governing rock slope stability. In this study a probabilistic analysis procedure and related algorithms were developed by extending the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach was used to analyze rock slope stability for Interstate Highway 40 (I-40), North Carolina, USA. This probabilistic approach consists of two parts: analysis of available geotechnical data to obtain random properties of discontinuity parameters; and probabilistic analysis of slope stability based on parameters with random properties. Random geometric and strength parameters for discontinuities were derived from field measurements and analysis using the statistical inference method or obtained from experience and engineering judgment of parameters. Specifically, this study shows that a certain amount of experience and engineering judgment can be utilized to determine random properties of discontinuity parameters. Probabilistic stability analysis is accomplished using statistical parameters and probability density functions for each discontinuity parameter. Then, the two requisite conditions, kinematic and kinetic instability for evaluating rock slope stability, are determined and evaluated separately, and subsequently the two probabilities are combined to provide an overall stability measure. Following the probabilistic analysis to account for variation in parameters, results of the probabilistic analyses were compared to those of a deterministic analysis, illustrating deficiencies in the latter procedure. Two geometries for the cut slopes on I-40 were evaluated, the original 75° slope and the 50° slope which has developed over the past 40 years of weathering.     

The short term climatic sensitivity of carbonate and silicate weathering fluxes: Insight from seasonal variations in river chemistry

Large seasonal variations in the dissolved load of the headwater tributaries of the Marsyandi river (Nepal Himalaya) for major cations and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are interpreted to result from a greater dissolution of carbonate relative to silicate at high runoff. There is up to a 0.003 decrease in strontium isotope ratios and a factor of 3 reduction in the Si(OH)₄/Ca ratio during the monsoon. These variations, in small rivers sampling uniform lithologies, result from a different response of carbonate and silicate mineral dissolution to climatic forcing. Similar trends are observed in compiled literature data, from both Indian and Nepalese Himalayan rivers. Carbonate weathering is more sensitive to monsoonal runoff because of its faster dissolution kinetics. Silicate weathering increases relative to carbonate during the dry season, and may be more predominant in groundwater with longer water-rock interaction times. Despite this kinetic effect, silicate weathering fluxes are dominated by the monsoon flux, when between 50% and 70% of total annual silicate weathering flux occurs.     

Tensile strength of large-scale incipient rock joints: a laboratory investigation

In this paper, a testing methodology was developed in the laboratory to measure the tensile strength of large-scale incipient rock joints. In the test, an expansive grout was used to develop the tensile force. Each test comprises two phases: Phase i test and Phase ii test. The Phase i test identified sample failure time, while the Phase ii test measured the corresponding tensile force arising from the expansive grout. Ostensibly homogeneous rock samples without incipient joints were firstly tested to establish the methodology. Tensile strength of block samples containing incipient rock joints was then measured using the established testing scheme. The test results have been compared with those obtained from conventional Brazilian and uniaxial tension tests as suggested by ISRM. The proposed approach is capable of giving a measure of tensile strength of large-scale incipient rock joints, although somewhat smaller strength than that from the standard approaches was occasionally measured in the preliminary tests on ostensibly homogeneous samples. Effects of stress concentration, sample scale, loading rate and expansive tensile force on the testing results were discussed. Furthermore, this simple and practical testing scheme is proposed for the measurement of the in situ tensile strength of rock and incipient discontinuities in the field, which if successful will provide a more scientific guidance on the rock mass classification and engineering design.     

Efficient Generation Portfolio Construction Using Time-Varying Correlations

We constructed a procurement portfolio for the Indian power sector using two variants of the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model to derive time-varying correlations between major coal indices. We used prices and qualities of observed cargos to adjust indices for quality gaps as well as for freight costs and power plant efficiency factors. Using the relative homogeneity of the energy content of imports from Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia, we found that the regional seaborne market is highly correlated during normal economic conditions, while suffering brief departures in correlation during demand and supply shocks. Our results show that the buying behavior of power producers is aligned with the mean-variance efficient portfolio of delivered prices using time-varying correlation estimates, but not free-on-board coal index prices. This study challenges the notion that thermal coal importers only source material with a freight price advantage and highlights the importance of coal quality gaps in power production.     

An open source,server-side framework for analytical web mapping and its application to health

In this paper, we detail the design and the implementation of an open source, server-side web mapping framework for the analysis of health data. The framework forms part of a larger project, the goal of which is to provide an analytical web geographical information system (GIS) that enables health experts to analyse spatial aspects of health data. The aim of the framework is to provide a method for the dynamic and flexible spatial visualisation of health data to facilitate data exploration and analysis. Consequently, a dynamic thematic web mapping technique, an extension to the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) web map service standard, was developed. The technique combines a data query, processing technique and styling methodology on the fly to generate a thematic map. The resulting thematic map represents a virtual map layer that enables a user to rapidly visually summarise properties of a data-set. A test web interface was developed to assess the efficacy of the web mapping technique. As the dynamic web mapping method builds on existing OGC web mapping standards, it can be readily integrated with the existing lightweight slippy map web clients and virtual globes.     

准噶尔盆地腹部超压顶面附近深层砂岩碳酸盐胶结作用和次生溶蚀孔隙形成机理

准噶尔盆地腹部深层超压顶面附近(现今埋深4400~6200m, 温度105~145℃) 砂岩中广泛出现的碳酸盐胶结作用和次生溶蚀孔隙与超压流体活动关系密切.由于超压封闭和释放引起其顶面附近砂岩中的孔隙压力和水化学环境的周期性变化可导致碳酸盐沉淀和易溶矿物溶解过程交替出现.根据腹部地区超压顶面附近深埋砂岩成岩作用、碳酸盐胶结物含量、储集物性、碳酸盐胶结物碳、氧同位素和烃源岩热演化模拟等资料的综合研究表明: 含铁碳酸盐胶结物是主要的胶结成分, 长石类成分的次生溶蚀孔隙是主要的储集空间类型, 纵向上深层砂岩碳酸盐胶结物出现15%~30%含量的地层厚度范围约在邻近超压顶面之下100m至之上大于450m, 碳酸盐胶结物出现大于25%含量高值带分布在靠近超压顶面向上的250~300m的地层厚度范围, 超压顶面附近砂岩中碳酸盐胶结物含量高值的深度范围也是次生溶蚀孔隙(孔隙度10%~20%) 发育带的范围; 因晚白垩世以来深部侏罗纪煤系有机质生烃增压作用, 导致在超压顶面附近砂岩晚成岩作用阶段深部富含碳酸盐的超压流体频繁活动, 所形成的碳酸盐胶结物受到了明显的与深部生烃增压有关的超压热流体和有机脱羧作用的影响; 超压流体多次通过超压顶面排放, 使得超压顶面附近砂岩遭受了多期酸性流体溶蚀作用过程, 形成了次生溶蚀孔隙发育带.