运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

平极长期漂移与地球平均下地幔黏性估计

利用9个国际纬度观测站的平纬长期变化序列,重新讨论并估计了平极的长期漂移,得到漂移的平均速率为(3.356“±0.142”)×l0-3/a,方向为西经78.7°±2.5°.进一步基于最新的ICE-4G冰期后地壳反弹模型,采用地球上8个冰盖的冰融参数,估计了理论的平极长期漂移方向为西经74.8°.由观测的平极长期漂移速率为约束,基于1066B地球模型,估计得到地球平均下地幔的黏性为vLM=(0.5-1.7)×1022Pa^.s,表明vLM应具有近1022Pa^.s量级,并认为地球平极的长期漂移很可能是由最近的21000年以来冰期后的地壳反弹所致.     

通海地磁台(L=1.03)Pc3地磁脉动的出现率

利用通海地磁台(L=1．03)1999年SMALL磁通门磁力仪记录资料，对Pc3脉动出现率的统计结果表明，日出现频次有两个峰值，即清晨06：00-07：00LT(地方时)出现频次最高，午后14：00～15：00LT为次峰值。Pc3脉动月出现频率最高的是4月和12月，其次是8月和9月；最少的是6月和7月。按季节统计结果为春秋季出现频次最高，冬季次之，夏季最低。     

黄土孔隙性分类判别的人工神经网络方法

运用人工神经网络的一典型模型——“反向传播”神经网络,对洛川黄土孔隙性的实测数据进行了分析,建立了洛川黄土孔隙性预测的计算机智能专家系统。结果表明,神经网络方法性能良好,可望成为黄土孔隙性分类、判别的有效辅助手段。     

Evaluation of aluminum speciation in surface waters in China and its environmental risk assessment

As the ongoing global research on acid precipitation is developing in depth, more and more attention has been paid to the ecological effects of aluminum (Al) due to its toxicity to plants and animals, which is caused by acid precipitation. As a very serious problem of terrestrial and aquatic environmental acidification occurs in China, especially in southwestern China, a systematic investigation of Al speciation in these regions is very important. In this paper, the Al speciation results of surface waters in China are reported and its ecological impacts is evaluated. More than 100 water samples were collected from about twenty provinces of China. Driscoll's Al speciation scheme combined with the modified MINQEL computer model is used for speciation of Al. This study shows that the ecological impacts of acidification are quite different between China and Western countries, because of different geographical environments and geological settings. In Western countries, acidification is mainly caused by NO₂^-. Due to low concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, the buffer capacities of soil and water are weak. Therefore, natural waters can be acidified to pH<5 very easily, resulting in a considerable mobilization of Al and worsening of the ecological environment. In China, acid precipitation is mainly in the form of sulfuric acid. In northwestern China, concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ are high in soil and surface waters. This leads to much higher capacity and a high resistance ability to acidification. The pH values of waters in this region are high (around 7) and no serious Al toxicity is found at present. However, in northeastern and southeastern China, the soil is rich in Al (unsaturated aluminosilicates in northeastern China, saturated aluminosilicates in north and central China, aluminum-rich soil in southeastern and southwestern China). The concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ in soil and waters are lower than those of northwestern China. Therefore the buffer capacity is limited. Numerous surface waters have already been acidified and pH values declined to 5. The impacts of Al toxicity on ecological systems in these regions are very serious, especially in Jiangxi, Hubei Provinces and Chongqing Municipality.     

1.2米地平式望远镜指向模型的研究 (1.全天指向模型的建立)

介绍了云南天文台1.2米地平式望远镜用于天文观测和图像采集处理的方法,建立了新的、独特的全天指向模型,大大提高了该望远镜的指向精度,达到1″,并在多年的实际应用中得到验证。     

Spatial and temporal trend of sewage pollution indicated by coprostanol in Macao Estuary,southern China

Bottom sediments and a ²¹⁰Pb dated sedimentary core in Macao Estuary were quantitatively analyzed with GC-MS for coprostanol and other sterols. Higher coprostanol concentrations were detected at Port Interior and Lower Qianshan River, indicative of serious sewage pollution from densely populated Macao Island and Zhuhai City. However, very low concentrations of coprostanol were detected around Coloane Island as well as Port Exterior and Maliuzhou River except sites adjacent sewage outlets. Coprostanol pollution in Macao Estuary originates mainly from locally direct discharge of untreated wastewater. The concentrations of coprostanol in ZJ-9 were mainly in range of 150–280 ng/g with an average of 210 ng/g for more than 20 years from early 1970s to early 1990s. However, it increased obviously since 1993, and reached the highest in 1995–1996. However, a sharp decrease of coprostanol concentration from 470 to 31 ng/g after 1996 was observed corresponding to the first wastewater treatment plant in Taipa Island going into action.     

ON BROADENING MECHANISMS OF THE Ca XIX RESONANCE LINE IN SOLAR FLARES

There are two explanations for the broadening mechanisms of the Caxix resonance line in the rising phase of a solar flare. One is due to the velocity dispersion of the chromospheric evaporation along the loop; the other is due to the non-thermal turbulence resulting from the flare energy release. In this paper we distinguish between these two possibilities by studying the influence of the loop orientation on the broadening of the Caxix resonance line, based on the data observed with SXT and BCS on Yohkoh. The results seem to support that the broadening of the Caxix resonance line is caused by non-thermal turbulence, rather than by the velocity dispersion.