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81.
    
A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by an ensemble of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the twenty-first century to precipitation recorded at weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence. Types are generated from daily precipitation observations spanning 1971 to 2000. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov models are derived from two versions of GCM output: averages of GCM grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data and an approach involving common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from GCM output over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using averaged grid cells find that winter (November–February) precipitation anomalies produce modestly positive values, with gains of 7.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 9.0% rising to 20% in the case of high-intensity precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and high-intensity summer precipitation (June–September) decline negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those in the southwestern sections, which experience reductions of 15% relative to 1971 to 2000. Projections made using common EOFs display a strong spatial dependence. Future winter precipitation is expected to increase only on the west coast of the island by 11%, on average, while the southeastern coast will experience decreases of 5% to 10%. The same pattern repeats in summer, though with negligible increases on the west coast and declines of 12% to 16% on the southeastern coast. The reliability of this novel EOF method remains to be confirmed definitively, however. In both seasons precipitation occurrence decreases slightly at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8%.

RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous employons une technique statistique de réduction d’échelle pour lier la circulation atmosphérique produite par un ensemble de simulations du GCM (Global Climate Model) durant le XXIe siècle aux précipitations enregistrées à des stations météorologiques sur l’île de Vancouver. Les relations entre les différentes échelles spatiales sont établies au moyen d'un typage synoptique couplé avec des modèles markoviens non homogènes pour simuler l'intensité et la fréquence des précipitations. Les types sont générés à partir des observations quotidiennes de précipitations au cours de la période 1971–2000. Les prédicteurs atmosphériques utilisés pour influencer les modèles markoviens sont dérivés de deux versions de sorties du GCM : les moyennes de mailles du GCM sélectionnées par tables de corrélation des données de circulation et de précipitations et une approche fondée sur les fonctions orthogonales empiriques (EOF) communes calculées d'après la sortie du GCM pour le nord-est du Pacifique. Les projections pour la période 2081–2100 basées sur des moyennes de mailles montrent que les anomalies de précipitations hivernales (novembre–février) produisent de faibles valeurs positives, avec des gains de 7.5% dans les précipitations moyennes, des accroissements caractéristiques de 9.0% augmentant à 20% dans le cas des précipitations de forte intensité, et peu de dépendance spatiale. En revanche, les précipitations estivales (juin–septembre) moyennes et de forte intensité diminuent de façon négligeable à la plupart des stations météorologiques de l’île, à l'exception de celles situées dans secteur sud-ouest qui subissent une réduction de 15% par rapport à 1971–2000. Les projections faites à l'aide des fonctions orthogonales empiriques communes exhibent une forte dépendance spatiale. Les précipitations hivernales futures devraient augmenter seulement sur la côte ouest de l’île de 11% en moyenne alors que la côte sud-est connaîtra des diminutions de 5 à 10%. La même configuration se répète en été, bien qu'avec des accroissements négligeables sur la côte ouest et des diminutions de 12 à 16% sur la côte sud-est. La fiabilité de cette nouvelle méthode EOF reste toutefois à établir. Dans les deux saisons, la fréquence des précipitations diminue légèrement à toutes les stations, les diminutions du nombre total de jours avec précipitations mesurables variant entre 2 et 8%.  相似文献   
82.
David B. Weaver 《GeoJournal》1993,31(4):457-465
Ecotourism-related strategies can serve to enhance the tourism industries of small Caribbean islands, which are presently dominated by a 3S (sea, sand, sun) product. In the first place, the principles of Alternative Tourism can be applied to 3S tourism in order to minimize negative environmental impacts. Secondly, diversionary ecotourism opportunities can be promoted to diversify the tourism product, thus providing a nature-oriented alternative to resort-based tourists. Thirdly, regional ecotourism, catering to ecotourists, can be fostered in mountainous interiors, peripheral islands, undeveloped coastlines, rural agricultural areas and in offshore reefs. A fourth strategy, exemplified by Dominica, entails a comprehensive ecotourism approach for destinations in which 3S tourism is undesired or unsuited.  相似文献   
83.
    
A review of electromagnetic induction in a multi-layered earth is built around a development of the general theory from first principles. Induction by transient and periodic fields and by dipole and electrojet sources are discussed and the method of complex images is briefly described. The review concludes with a discussion of induction by elementary harmonic sources whose non-uniformity is characterised by Price's ν-parameter and which include the uniform source field (ν=0) as a special case. The conditions under which the source may be assumed uniform for computing the surface impedance and other ratios of field components are examined.  相似文献   
84.
85.
Magnetic activity throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and the South Shetland Islands has been dominantly of a calc-alkaline nature for the last 200 Ma. Chemically, the plutonic and volcanic products are typical of a continental margin magmatic arc, similar to those from western South America. Within any one area, volcanic and plutonic rocks are compositionally indistinguishable, and all magmatic products show increasing SiO2, and increasing K/Si, Rb/Si, Th/Si and to a lesser extent Ce/Si and La/Si ratios away from the proposed trench axis. The calc-alkaline basaltic compositions also have high large ion lithophile (LIL; e.g. K, Rb, Th)/high field strength (HFS; e.g. Zr, Nb, Ti) ratios relative to non-orogenic counterparts, and increasing LIL/HFS element ratios with increasing fractionation. It is proposed that the high LIL/HFS element ratios in basaltic and andesitic melts are primary features due to dehydration processes with the subducted slab and to fractionation of minor mineral phases from the melt. The increasing LIL/HFS element ratios in more acid rocks are probably due to removal of minor mineral phases from the melt. Although zone refining may contribute to the spatial variations across the peninsula, we have proposed that an enriched subcontinental mantle provides a viable alternative source for the observed K-h variations and for the increased LIL-element contents found in continental margin calc-alkaline magmas.  相似文献   
86.
Environmental isotopes (particularly δ18O, δ2H, and δ13C values, 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and a14C) constrain geochemical processes, recharge distribution and rates, and inter-aquifer mixing in the Riverine Province of the southern Murray Basin. Due to methanogenesis and the variable δ13C values of matrix calcite, δ13C values are highly variable and it is difficult to correct 14C ages using δ13C values alone. In catchments where δ13C values, 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and major ion geochemistry yield similar a14C corrections, ∼15% of the C is derived from the aquifer matrix in the silicate-dominated aquifers, and this value may be used to correct ages in other catchments. Most groundwater has a14C above background (∼2 pMC) implying that residence times are <30 ka. Catchments containing saline groundwater generally record older 14C ages compared to catchments that contain lower salinity groundwater, which is consistent with evapotranspiration being the major hydrogeochemical process. However, some low salinity groundwater in the west of the Riverine Province has residence times of >30 ka probably resulting from episodic recharge during infrequent high rainfall episodes. Mixing between shallower and deeper groundwater results in 14C ages being poorly correlated with distance from the basin margins in many catchments; however, groundwater flow in palaeovalleys where the deeper Calivil–Renmark Formation is coarser grained and has high hydraulic conductivities is considerably more simple with little inter-aquifer mixing. Despite the range of ages, δ18O and δ2H values of groundwater in the Riverine Province do not preserve a record of changing climate; this is probably due to the absence of extreme climatic variations, such as glaciations, and the fact that the area is not significantly impacted by monsoonal systems.  相似文献   
87.
88.
Major ion geochemistry is used to qualitatively interpret groundwater residence times within an aquifer, and the extent of mixing between aquifers with distinctive mineralogy. In conjunction with hydraulic heads and stable isotope geochemistry, flow paths and inter-aquifer exchange are defined in a fractured-rock aquifer system in the Dandenong Ranges, southeast Australia. Stable isotopes indicate modern seasonal recharge throughout the system. At high elevations in the sub-catchment, which includes both marine Silurian-Devonian sedimentary and Tertiary basalt aquifers, Cl is derived primarily from cyclic salts, and differences in mineralogy result in groundwater from the basalt aquifer having higher TDS contents (123–262 mg/L) and (Ca+Mg)/Na ratios (0.9–1.3) than groundwater from the sedimentary aquifer (TDS: 55–79 mg/L; (Ca+Mg)/Na: 0.1–0.2). At low elevations, in areas of local groundwater discharge, the more regional flow system in the Silurian-Devonian sediments contains additional Cl from water–rock interaction and has distinctly higher TDS contents (517–537 mg/L). Differences in groundwater chemistry between the aquifers and between shallower and deeper flow systems highlights areas of inter-aquifer mixing. This is particularly important for aquifer vulnerability where groundwater quality in the deeper aquifer may be impacted by surface activities.
Resumen Se ha utilizado geoquímica de iones mayores para interpretar cualitativamente los tiempos de residencia del agua subterránea dentro de un acuífero, y el grado de mezcla entre acuíferos con mineralogía característica. De manera conjunta con presiones hidráulicas y geoquímica de isótopos estables, se han definido trayectorias de flujo e intercambio entre acuíferos en un sistema de acuífero de roca fracturada en las Sierras Dandenong, sureste de Australia. Los isótopos estables indican recarga estacional moderada a través del sistema. A elevaciones altas en la sub-cuenca que incluye acuíferos sedimentarios Silúrico-Devónicos y acuíferos basálticos Terciarios, Cl se deriva principalmente de sales cíclicas. Las diferencias en mineralogía resultan en agua subterránea del acuífero basáltico que tiene mayores contenidos TDS (123–262 mg/L) y mayor relación (Ca+Mg)/Na (0.9–1.3) que el agua subterránea de los acuíferos sedimentarios (TDS:55–79 mg/L; (Ca+Mg)/Na: 0.1–0.2). A elevaciones bajas, en áreas de recarga local de agua subterránea, el sistema de flujo más regional en los sedimentos Silúrico-Devónicos contiene Cl adicional que se deriva de la interacción roca-agua y típico contenido TDS más alto (517–537 mg L). Las diferencias en la química del agua subterránea entre los acuíferos y entre los sistemas de flujo más profundo y más somero resalta áreas de mezcla entre acuíferos. Esto es particularmente importante para la vulnerabilidad del acuífero donde la calidad del agua subterránea en el acuífero más profundo puede ser impactada por las actividades superficiales.

Résumé Les ions majeurs sont utilisés pour interpréter quantitativement les temps de résidence des eaux souterraines dans les aquifères, et létendue des zones de mélange entre les aquifères de différentes minéralogies. En regard de la répartition des charges hydrauliques et des informations données par les isotopes stables, les écoulements et les échanges inter-aquifères sont définis dans un aquifère fracturé dans le Dandenong Ranges, SE de lAustralie. Les isotopes stables indiquent des recharges modernes et saisonnières à travers le système aquifère. A haute altitude dans le sous-bassin versant, qui inclut des sédiments du Siluro-Dévonien et des basaltes du Tertiaire, le chlore est dabord dérivé des sels cycliques, et des différences minéralogiques dans les eaux souterraines sont observées selon laquifère : basalte tertiaire (TDS: 123–262 mg/L; Ca+Mg/Ca: 0.9 à 1.3) et sédiments primaires (TDS: 55–79 mg/L; Ca+Mg/Ca: 0.1–0.2). Aux basses altitudes, dans les zones locales de décharge des eaux souterraines, les écoulements les plus régionaux possèdent des teneurs plus élevées en Chlore en provenance des interactions eau—roche, et des TDS plus élevées (515–537 mg/L). Des différences dans la chimie des eaux souterraines entre les aquifères et entre les systèmes découlement de surface et les écoulements profonds mettent en lumière les zones de mélange inter-aquifère. Ceci est particulièrement important pour la définition de la vulnérabilité où la qualité des eaux souterraines en profondeur peuvent subir les impacts des activités de surface.
  相似文献   
89.
90.
In separate projects, the Hubble Space Telescope has been used to assess the nature of 3 unusual objects: Chiron, Pholus and P/Shoemaker-Levy 9. This paper will compare these objects and discuss how the unique capabilities of the HST may be used to address the issue of cometary activity in each. Chiron, which has exhibited obvious cometary characteristics for several years, might have a bound dust coma that is unresolvable from the ground. In an attempt to directly observe this bound coma, we have obtained a series of images of Chiron with the HST Planetary Camera. Inner coma structure out to 0.2 has been detected. From these observations we infer a low bulk nucleus density for Chiron. Both HST and ground-based images of 5145 Pholus have been obtained to search for evidence of activity. The ground-based data give the most sensitive limits; however, it is shown that the WFPC-2 on HST can give limits 2–3 orders of magnitude more sensitive than conventional ground-based limits. Finally, as part of a collaborative effort, we have been obtaining HST observations of SL9 in order to determine the fragment sizes and to assess their nature (i.e., cometary vs. asteroid). Both ground-based observations from the UH 2.2m telescope on Mauna Kea and HST observations show that the near-nucleus dust is redder than the sun. While FOS spectra did not detect OH emission, the WFPC-2 HST data show that the inner coma remained very circular from July 1993 up until 2 weeks prior to impact, implying continued production of dust.  相似文献   
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