Downscaling of Precipitation over Vancouver Island using a Synoptic Typing Approach

A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by an ensemble of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the twenty-first century to precipitation recorded at weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence. Types are generated from daily precipitation observations spanning 1971 to 2000. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov models are derived from two versions of GCM output: averages of GCM grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data and an approach involving common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from GCM output over the northeast Pacific Ocean. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using averaged grid cells find that winter (November–February) precipitation anomalies produce modestly positive values, with gains of 7.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 9.0% rising to 20% in the case of high-intensity precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and high-intensity summer precipitation (June–September) decline negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those in the southwestern sections, which experience reductions of 15% relative to 1971 to 2000. Projections made using common EOFs display a strong spatial dependence. Future winter precipitation is expected to increase only on the west coast of the island by 11%, on average, while the southeastern coast will experience decreases of 5% to 10%. The same pattern repeats in summer, though with negligible increases on the west coast and declines of 12% to 16% on the southeastern coast. The reliability of this novel EOF method remains to be confirmed definitively, however. In both seasons precipitation occurrence decreases slightly at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8%.

RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous employons une technique statistique de réduction d’échelle pour lier la circulation atmosphérique produite par un ensemble de simulations du GCM (Global Climate Model) durant le XXI^e siècle aux précipitations enregistrées à des stations météorologiques sur l’île de Vancouver. Les relations entre les différentes échelles spatiales sont établies au moyen d'un typage synoptique couplé avec des modèles markoviens non homogènes pour simuler l'intensité et la fréquence des précipitations. Les types sont générés à partir des observations quotidiennes de précipitations au cours de la période 1971–2000. Les prédicteurs atmosphériques utilisés pour influencer les modèles markoviens sont dérivés de deux versions de sorties du GCM : les moyennes de mailles du GCM sélectionnées par tables de corrélation des données de circulation et de précipitations et une approche fondée sur les fonctions orthogonales empiriques (EOF) communes calculées d'après la sortie du GCM pour le nord-est du Pacifique. Les projections pour la période 2081–2100 basées sur des moyennes de mailles montrent que les anomalies de précipitations hivernales (novembre–février) produisent de faibles valeurs positives, avec des gains de 7.5% dans les précipitations moyennes, des accroissements caractéristiques de 9.0% augmentant à 20% dans le cas des précipitations de forte intensité, et peu de dépendance spatiale. En revanche, les précipitations estivales (juin–septembre) moyennes et de forte intensité diminuent de façon négligeable à la plupart des stations météorologiques de l’île, à l'exception de celles situées dans secteur sud-ouest qui subissent une réduction de 15% par rapport à 1971–2000. Les projections faites à l'aide des fonctions orthogonales empiriques communes exhibent une forte dépendance spatiale. Les précipitations hivernales futures devraient augmenter seulement sur la côte ouest de l’île de 11% en moyenne alors que la côte sud-est connaîtra des diminutions de 5 à 10%. La même configuration se répète en été, bien qu'avec des accroissements négligeables sur la côte ouest et des diminutions de 12 à 16% sur la côte sud-est. La fiabilité de cette nouvelle méthode EOF reste toutefois à établir. Dans les deux saisons, la fréquence des précipitations diminue légèrement à toutes les stations, les diminutions du nombre total de jours avec précipitations mesurables variant entre 2 et 8%.     

Rainforest carbon financing in New Zealand: A case study of REDD+ on Māori land

This study examines a case study of the Rarakau Rainforest Conservation Project on Māori‐owned land in western Southland – New Zealand's first and only REDD+ project. It explores the potential for REDD+ projects on Māori land throughout the country. Key findings show that REDD+ is technically feasible in New Zealand, but commercially dependent on (currently low) demand in the domestic retail carbon offset and ‘corporate social responsibility’ market. Market research suggests that there is sufficient demand to cater to the needs of a small number of REDD+ projects, but insufficient demand to roll out a nation‐wide scheme.     

Effects of open gaps on particle velocity measurements

Summary Joints and bedding planes are present in nearly all geologic media. These discontinuities vary in the extent to which they are open and the material with which they are filled. The presence of such discontinuities affect the ground motions that result from the detonation of an explosive source. The effects of these discontinuities are especially important if it is desired to predict the size of the explosive source from measurements of ground motion — such as particle velocity or stress. In this paper we present results from a series of model tests conducted to investigate the effect of open gaps on the particle velocity that can be transmitted across them. Electromagnetic velocity gages were used to record particle velocities at several locations on either side of an open gap of known width. The study was restricted to the transmission of particle velocities normal to the gap and to the case where the gap was located in a region for which the stress was high but not greatly above the elastic limit of the material. The experimental results were compared qualitatively to results obtained from WONDY — a one dimensional Lagrangian finite difference code. Although the tests were conducted in laboratory models, the results can be scaled to compare to the full scale situation.     

The Seismic Project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years.     

The ultraviolet spectrum of periodic comet encke (1980 XI)

A comparison of the ultraviolet spectrum of periodic Comet Encke (1980 XI), recorded by the IUE between 24 October and 5 November 1980 with similar spectra of short- and long-period comets shows the gaseous composition of P/Encke to be nearly identical to that of the other comets observed by the IUE. If P/Encke is indeed the remains of a once giant comet, this similarity implies a homogeneous radial structure for the cometary ice nucleus. The OH brightness distribution shows a spatial variation similar to the visible fan-shaped image of the comet, suggestive of a nonuniform distribution of volatile ices on the surface of the nucleus. The total derived water production rate appears to be a factor of 5 higher than that derived from HI Lyman-α observations made during the 1970 apparition and shows a variation with heliocentric distance (r) as r^?3.3 over the range 0.81 to 1.02 AU.     

Late Quaternary evolution of the Madeira Abyssal Plain,Canary Basin,NE Atlantic

The deepest part of the Canary Basin, the Madeira Abyssal Plain, receives allochthonous sediments derived from a large drainage basin which, if its subaerial continuation is included, covers an area of 3.36 times 10⁶ km². An international research effort over the last 10 years has recovered over 160 sediment cores from the plain, and the development of a high-resolution stratigraphy has enabled individual turbidites to be correlated layer by layer. Sedimentation on the Madeira Abyssal Plain during the late Quaternary is dominated by thick turbidite muds separated by thin pelagic intervals. The core density has allowed the mapping of each sedimentary unit throughout the abyssal plain, thus building up a layer by layer picture of sediment accumulation. Over the last 300 kyr, 600 km³ of turbidites compared to 60 km³ of pelagic sediments have been deposited on the plain. Sedimentary structures developed in the coarse basal facies of the larger turbidites are more complex than simple models predict due to surging flows, fluctuating flow velocities and reflection from adjacent high ground. Over the last 300 kyr, there has been a switching of entry points for turbidity currents entering the abyssal plain. From 300 ka to 200 ka, organic-rich turbidites were emplaced predominantly from the south but around 200 ka this source switched off and subsequent organic- and volcanic-rich turbidites, which included units deposited by giant, possibly hyperconcentrated flows, were emplaced from northern or eastern sources. Although restricted to the late Quaternary, the data presented provides a detailed case study of the evolution of an oceanic basin fill.     

The organic composition of Comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR) revealed through infrared spectroscopy

We investigated the parent volatile composition of the Oort cloud Comet C/2000 WM₁ (LINEAR) on 23-25 November 2001, using the Near Infrared Echelle Spectrograph on the Keck II telescope. Flux-calibrated spectra, absolute production rates, and mixing ratios are presented for H₂O, HCN, CH₄, C₂H₂, C₂H₆, H₂CO, CH₃OH and CO. Compared with “organics-normal” comets, WM₁ is moderately depleted in HCN, CH₄ and CH₃OH, and is even more depleted in C₂H₂ and CO. Its composition is thus intermediate to comets that are severely depleted in their organic volatile composition and those that exhibit “normal” organic volatile abundances. We argue that WM₁ may have formed closer to the young Sun than “organics-normal” comets, but at greater distance than the severely depleted comets, before its ejection to the Oort cloud. The mixing ratios of the above-listed organic volatiles agree day-by-day for 23-25 November 2001. Thus, there is no evidence of macroscopic heterogeneity in chemistry of this comet’s nucleus at the achieved measurement accuracy. As the first comet to show moderate organic depletion in parent volatiles, WM₁ represents an important addition to the emerging taxonomic classification based on chemical composition.     

Induction in a thin sheet of variable conductance at the surface of a stratified earth - I. Two-dimensional theory

Summary. An existing 2-D integral equation method for modelling electromagnetic induction in a thin sheet at the surface of a uniform half-space can be generalized to deal with a layered half-space by the inclusion of an extra term in the integral equation. The results obtained are shown to be in excellent agreement with finite difference solutions to the same modelling problem.     

Experimental constraints on the origins of primitive potassic lavas from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Primitive magmas in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) span a wide geochemical range that includes calc-alkaline basalt and basaltic andesite, potassic shoshonites, and intraplate alkaline basalts, indicating that the subarc mantle wedge is chemically heterogeneous. The aim of this study is to experimentally constrain the origins of potassic lavas that have erupted along the volcanic front in the TMVB. We used a piston-cylinder apparatus to determine the P–T–H₂O near-liquidus phase relations for two primitive potassic lavas: a hornblende trachybasalt (shoshonite) from Cerro La Pilita in the central TMVB and a high-K calc-alkaline basalt from Ayutla in the western TMVB. Experiments were conducted at mantle pressures (0.8–2.5 GPa) and temperatures (1,100–1,400 °C) with 1.5–6 wt% H₂O. Results show that both samples were last equilibrated with an olivine + clinopyroxene assemblage at upper mantle pressures. Integrating our results with trace element characteristics, we conclude that the potassic magmas formed by a complex, multistage process in which melts from the hottest part of the mantle wedge either reequilibrated with clinopyroxene-rich veins in the shallow upper mantle or caused melting of such veins by advective heating. We combine our results with previous experiments on TMVB lavas to provide an along-arc perspective of melt equilibration depths in the mantle wedge. The results suggest that although melts may initially form deep in the wedge, they commonly reequilibrate with heterogeneous mantle at shallower depths. Primitive, medium-K basaltic andesites in the TMVB form by reequilibration with harzburgite, which we infer to be a common lithology in the upper mantle, whereas some potassic magmas like the ones studied here form through reequilibration with or melting of veins of olivine + clinopyroxene ± phlogopite. Though somewhat rare at the volcanic front relative to the more abundant medium-K volcanic rocks, the potassic magmas are an important lava type for revealing mantle chemical heterogeneities.