Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.     

On the amplitudes of correlations and the inference of attenuations,specific intensities and site factors from ambient noise

While techniques for retrieval of seismic velocities from wavelet arrival times in ambient noise correlations are now well established, interpretation of wavelet amplitudes remains unsatisfactory. It is clear that such amplitudes contain information on seismic attenuation, but they are also affected by ambient noise intensity, site amplification, and any nonlinear preprocessing that may have been applied to the noise signals. Disentangling these many factors in order to reliably recover seismic attenuation is challenging. It is argued here that noise intensity, while rarely isotropic or homogeneous, may nevertheless be modeled by a radiative transfer equation. It is then shown that this recognition sufficiently constrains the noise intensity that we may hope to fit measured correlation amplitudes to models for spatially varying attenuation and site amplification factors. One-bit preprocessing, it is shown, is not compatible with such fits except in the special case of spatially constant noise intensity. An alternative procedure for accelerating convergence is suggested. Numerical simulations for a case of homogeneous attenuation and homogeneous seismic velocity are presented in support of the assertions. Attenuation, site factors, and noise intensity are successfully retrieved from correlations of numerically simulated imperfectly diffuse waves measured on a linear array of sensors.     

The outgassing and composition of Comet 19P/Borrelly from radio observations

Radio spectroscopic observations of Comet 19P/Borrelly were performed during the 1994 apparition and at, and near, the time of the Deep Space 1 flyby in 2001. HCN, CS, CH₃OH, and H₂CO were detected using the 30-m telescope of the Institut de Radioastronomie Millimétrique and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, and their production rates relative to water are estimated to be 0.06-0.11, 0.07, 1.7, and 0.4%, respectively. Only upper limits are derived for H₂S and CO. The upper limit for CO/H₂O (<15%) is not very constraining, while the upper limit for the H₂S/H₂O ratio of 0.45% is near the bottom of the range of values measured for other comets. Observations of the OH radical at the Nançay radio telescope provide water production rates a few weeks before the 1994 and 2001 perihelia. Observations of the 1₁₀-1₀₁ water line at 557 GHz with the Odin satellite yield a water production rate of (2.5±0.5)×10²⁸ s⁻¹ on September 22, 2001, at the time of the Deep Space 1 encounter, and (3.3±0.6)×10²⁸ s⁻¹ averaged over the September 22-24, 2001 period. The line shapes are asymmetric and blueshifted by V₀∼−0.18 km s⁻¹ for the best observed HCN lines recorded one week after perihelion. The HCN line shapes, and the similar OH and HCN velocity shifts over the September-November 1994 and August-September 2001 periods, favor anisotropic outgassing towards the Sun. Strong outgassing directed along the primary dust jet seen on visible images is not excluded by the HCN line shapes, but unrealistically high gas expansion velocities are required to explain the line shapes in that case.     

Performance of grass and eucalyptus riparian buffers in a pasture catchment,Western Australia,part 1: riparian hydrology

Rainfall takes many flowpaths to reach a stream, and the success of riparian buffers in water quality management is significantly influenced by riparian hydrology. This paper presents results from hydrometric monitoring of riparian buffer hydrology in a pasture catchment. Runoff processes and riparian flowpaths were investigated on two planar hillslopes with regenerating grass and E. globulus buffers. Surface runoff and subsurface flows (A‐ and B‐horizons) were measured for 3 years using surface runoff collectors, subsurface troughs and piezometers. Water volumes moving through the riparian buffers via the measured flowpaths were ranked B‐horizon ? surface runoff ≈ A‐horizon. Runoff volumes through the B‐horizon troughs were an order of magnitude greater than those recorded for the most productive surface runoff plots or the A‐horizon troughs. Subsurface runoff and saturation‐excess overland flow (SOF) were limited to the winter months, whereas infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) can occur all year round during intense storms. Surface runoff was recorded on 33 occasions, mostly during winter (late May–early October), and total annual surface runoff volumes collected by the 20 unconfined (2 m wide) runoff plots varied between > 80 and < 20 m³. Subsurface flow only occurred in winter, and the 6 m wide B‐horizon subsurface troughs flowed above 1 l s^?1 continuously, whereas the A‐horizon troughs flowed infrequently (<6 days per year). In summer, surface runoff occurred as IEOF during intense storms in the E. globulus buffer, but not in the grass buffer. Observations suggest that surface crusting reduced the soil's infiltration capacity in the E. globulus buffer. During winter, SOF and seepage were observed in both buffers, but subsurface flow through the B‐horizon was the dominant flowpath. Key hydrologic differences between the grass and tree buffers are the generation of IEOF in the E. globulus buffer during intense summer storms, and the smaller subsurface runoff volumes and fewer flow days in the E. globulus buffer. Low surface runoff volumes are likely to limit the potential of these buffers to filter pollutants from surface runoff. High subsurface flow volumes and saturated conductivities are also likely to limit the residence time of water in the subsurface domain. Based on their hydrologic performance, the key roles of riparian buffers in this landscape are likely to be displacing sediment and nutrient‐generating activities away from streams and stabilizing channel morphology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance of grass and eucalyptus riparian buffers in a pasture catchment,Western Australia,part 2: water quality

Declining water quality on the south coast of Western Australia has been linked to current agricultural practices. Riparian buffers were identified as a tool available to farmers and catchment managers to achieve water quality improvements. This study compares 10 m wide regenerating grass and Eucalyptus globulus buffer performance. Surface and subsurface water quality were monitored over a 3‐year period. Nutrient and sediment transport were both dominated by subsurface flow, in particular through the B‐horizon, and this may seriously limit the surface‐runoff‐related functions of the riparian buffers. Riparian buffer trapping efficiencies were variable on an event basis and annual basis. The grass buffer reduced total phosphorus, filterable reactive phosphorus, total nitrogen and suspended sediment loads from surface runoff by 50 to 60%. The E. globulus buffer was not as effective, and total load reductions in surface runoff ranged between 10 and 40%. A key difference between the grass and E. globulus buffers was the seasonality of sediment and nutrient transport. Surface runoff, and therefore sediment and nutrient transport, occurred throughout the year in the E. globulus buffer, but only during the winter in the grass buffer. As a consequence of high summer nutrient and sediment concentrations, half the annual loads moving via surface runoff pathways through the E. globulus buffer were transported during intense summer storms. This study demonstrates that grass and E. globulus riparian buffers receiving runoff from pasture under natural rainfall can reduce sediment and nutrient loads from surface runoff. However, in this environment the B‐horizon subsurface flow is the dominant flowpath for nutrient transport through the riparian buffers, and this subsurface flow pathway carries contaminant loads at least three times greater than surface runoff. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental recovery in Sydney Harbour,Nova Scotia: Evidence of natural and anthropogenic sediment capping

Contaminants were assessed in Sydney Harbour during baseline and three years of remediation of a former coking and steel facility. Concentrations of PAHs; PCBs; and lead measured in surface sediments indicate overall spatial distribution patterns of historical contaminants remains unchanged, although at much lower concentrations than previously reported due to natural sediment recovery. Recovery rates were in broad agreement with predicted concentrations; or in some cases lower, despite remediation at the Sydney Tar Ponds (STP) site. Contaminants showed little temporal variability, except for detection of significant increases in PAH concentrations during onset of remediation compared to baseline which represented a short term interruption in the overall long term natural recovery of sediments in Sydney Harbour. Recovery (via “capping”) was enhanced following recent harbour dredging activities where less contaminated outer harbour sediments were discharged into a confined disposal facility (CDF) required for a new container in the inner harbour.     

Response of newly established Juniperus ashei and Carex planostachys plants to barrier-induced water restriction in surface soil

Plant species in the Edwards Plateau region of central Texas often face drought conditions. Some of these species reduce water stress by rooting into moist bedrock crevices. A dominant woody plant (Juniperus ashei) and co-occurring xeric sedge (Carex planostachys) were greenhouse-grown in growth tubes with or without water-blocking partial barriers in tubes with water added below the barrier (～70 cm). Soil moisture at various depths was related to growth response (above- and below-ground biomass, root length, and number of root tips) per species. Barrier treatment yielded significantly drier soil than non-barrier. Juniperus plants were significantly smaller with barrier treatment, while Carex showed no significant differences between treatments. The results suggest the sedge is more able than the shrub to increase root production in the upper layers of the soil when faced with access restriction to lower layers. The sedge may resist drought by exploring sub-superficial soil layers. When access to sub-superficial water sources is restricted, the shrub is more affected than the sedge. The plants’ growth in water-restricted surface soil for several months suggests these species may not need deep water to survive. In fact seedling growth may differ in mature plants.     

Cross-correlation of random fields: mathematical approach and applications

Random field cross‐correlation is a new promising technique for seismic exploration, as it bypasses shortcomings of usual active methods. Seismic noise can be considered as a reproducible, stationary in time, natural source. In the present paper we show why and how cross‐correlation of noise records can be used for geophysical imaging. We discuss the theoretical conditions required to observe the emergence of the Green's functions between two receivers from the cross‐correlation of noise records. We present examples of seismic imaging using reconstructed surface waves from regional to local scales. We also show an application using body waves extracted from records of a small‐scale network. We then introduce a new way to achieve surface wave seismic experiments using cross‐correlation of unsynchronized sources. At a laboratory scale, we demonstrate that body wave extraction may also be used to image buried scatterers. These works show the feasibility of passive imaging from noise cross‐correlation at different scales.     

On the generation and decay of the long-period coda energy of large earthquakes

Seismic coda wave is the tail portion of the earthquake record after main arrivals. Studies on the coda usually focus on high-frequency data within several hours after regional events and attribute them to the scattering effect of the heterogeneities inside the earth. Here, we use records of seven large earthquakes at globally distributed seismic stations to examine the decay of long-period (100 s to 300 s) coda in the time window of 10,000 s to 140,000 s after the origin time and fit it with a statistical model. The geometric spreading effect in the estimated initial energy and a location-independent equivalent attenuation coefficient indicate that the long-period coda energy is less affected by the heterogeneity-induced scattering effect than that of shorter-period coda. The coda energy can reach the earth's inner core and can be explained by a 1D earth model, making it more effective for constraining the global attenuation model. It also has the potential to determine the magnitudes of large earthquakes and to explore the interior of planetary bodies.     

The Scourie dyke suite: Petrogenesis and geochemical nature of the Proterozoic sub-continental mantle

The petrogenesis of bronzite-picrite, olivine-gabbro, norite and quartz-tholeiite dykes, which make up the 2.39 b.y. Scourie dyke swarm cutting the Archaean Lewisian gneisses of N.W. Scotland, is interpreted on the basis of their major and trace element geochemistry. Most of the dykes bear primary amphibole and/or phlogopite and, with one exception, are all hypersthene- or quartz-normative. Apart from one tholeiite dyke which shows relative light rare-earth element depletion, all the dykes show enrichment in light rare-earths and large-ion lithophile elements. They do not however show an equivalent enrichment in other incompatible high field strength ions such as Nb and Ta, and in this respect resemble island arc and calc-alkaline basalts. The different dyke types have distinctive rare-earth patterns and other trace element ratios which are maintained over a range of major element compositions.Petrogenetic modelling of the major and trace element compositions of the various dykes demonstrates that very few can be related by fractional crystallisation. Indeed, even with partial melting mechanisms at least two different mantle sources, with different major and trace element compositons, are required to explain the compositional differences between the major dyke types. The high degrees of mantle melting implied for the generation of the magnesium-rich bronzite-picrites suggests that their rare earth and other trace element patterns closely reflect those of their mantle source. Similar arguments, though less well constrained, can be advanced for the other dyke types. The results suggest that the sub-continental mantle source feeding the dykes was heterogeneous with respect to both major and trace elements, and that their mantle sources must have been enriched in lithophile elements. Enrichment at the time the Lewisian gneisses were generated (i.e. 2.92 b.y. ago) would be compatible with the initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the dykes and the inferred Rb/Sr ratios of their mantle sources. The sub-continental mantle sources have thus retained the geochemical signature of the crustgenerating processes some 500 m.y. earlier.