Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Reanalysis of the Historic AFTAC Bolide Infrasound Database

We have recently digitized and partially reanalyzed the historic bolide infrasonic database. These 10 events were originally detected by the U.S. Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) from ∼1960 to 1974. In this paper we present the first preliminary reanalysis results for two of the 10 bolide events, namely the Revelstoke bolide of 3/31/1965 as well as the Prince Edward Islands (P.E.I). S. African bolide of 8/03/1963, which were among the largest bolides detected during this time period. These bolides have been investigated initially since they are most likely to have had a significant effect on the computed global influx rate of ReVelle (Global Infrasonic Monitoring of Large Bolides, pp 483–490, 2001) as indicated in Brown et al. (Nature, 420:314–316, 2002). We are in the process of recomputing all relevant infrasonic propagation quantities such as plane wave back azimuth, signal velocities, power spectra, spectrograms, as well as energy estimates using multiple techniques. In a future paper we will present a complete digital reanalysis of the AFTAC bolide infrasonic data and its final resulting global bolide influx implications.     

Renewed uplift at the Yellowstone Caldera measured by leveling surveys and satellite radar interferometry

 A first-order leveling survey across the northeast part of the Yellowstone caldera in September 1998 showed that the central caldera floor near Le Hardy Rapids rose 24±5 mm relative to the caldera rim at Lake Butte since the previous survey in September 1995. Annual surveys along the same traverse from 1985 to 1995 tracked progressive subsidence near Le Hardy Rapids at an average rate of –19±1 mm/year. Earlier, less frequent surveys measured net uplift in the same area during 1923–1976 (14±1 mm/year) and 1976–1984 (22±1 mm/year). The resumption of uplift following a decade of subsidence was first detected by satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry, which revealed approximately 15 mm of uplift in the vicinity of Le Hardy Rapids from July 1995 to June 1997. Radar interferograms show that the center of subsidence shifted from the Sour Creek resurgent dome in the northeast part of the caldera during August 1992 to June 1993 to the Mallard Lake resurgent dome in the southwest part during June 1993 to August 1995. Uplift began at the Sour Creek dome during August 1995 to September 1996 and spread to the Mallard Lake dome by June 1997. The rapidity of these changes and the spatial pattern of surface deformation suggest that ground movements are caused at least in part by accumulation and migration of fluids in two sill-like bodies at 5–10 km depth, near the interface between Yellowstone's magmatic and deep hydrothermal systems. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 16 April 1999     

休伦湖Saginaw湾沉积物反硝化率的测定及其时空特征

用N2生成法测定了北美休伦湖Saginaw湾1995年夏季7、8月份沉积物反硝化率,Saginaw湾内湾的沉积物反硝化率为16．0－39．6μmolN2／（m2·h）,外湾沉积反硝化率为22．7　－26．1μmolN2／（m2·h）,比较了不同湖泊沉积物反硝化率数值大小,指出休伦湖Saginaw湾水体现阶段的营养状况为贫－中营养水平．内外湾沉积物反硝化率数值波动大小与Saginaw河及休伦湖的影响有关;N2：TIN通量比值有不随采样时间的变化而变更等特性．在反硝化率测定过程中,反硝化率与O2消耗率之间有明显的正相关关系;沉积物上覆水中NH+4与NO-3之间通量值在变化趋势上有明显的负相关关系。     

Preparation and Measurement of Cassiterite for Sn Isotope Analysis

Increased interest in the fractionation of Sn isotopes has led to the development of several techniques for preparing cassiterite (SnO₂, the primary ore of Sn) for isotopic analysis. Two distinct methods have been applied in recent isotopic studies of cassiterite: (a) reduction to tin metal with potassium cyanide (KCN) at high temperature (800 °C), with subsequent dissolution in HCl, and (b) reduction to a Sn solution with hydriodic acid (HI) at low temperature (100 °C). This study compares the effectiveness and accuracy of these two methods and contributes additional methodological details. The KCN method consistently yielded more Sn (> 70% in comparison with < 5%), does not appear to fractionate Sn isotopes at high temperatures over a 2‐hour period and produced consistent Sn isotope values at flux mass ratios of ≥ 4:1 (flux to mineral) with a minimum reduction time of 40 min. By means of a distillation experiment, it was demonstrated that HI could volatilise Sn, explaining the consistently low yields by this method. Furthermore, the distillation generated Sn vapour, which is up to 0.38‰ per mass unit different from the starting material, the largest induced Sn fractionation reported to date. Accordingly, the HI method is not recommended for cassiterite preparation for Sn isotopic analysis.