A computerised decision support system for rural policy formulation

Abstract

A primary goal of the NERC/ESRC Land Use Programme (NELUP) was to design and build a decision support system (DSS) to model rural land use and its change due to environmental and agricultural policy. The effects of policies are measured in terms of economic, ecological and hydrological parameters, with land use and land cover being the uniting factors. The DSS incorporates access to a large database and a suite of complex models. The DSS is user-friendly, produces meaningful graphics, and is almost entirely mouse-driven. This paper describes the NELUP view of policy making and DSS, the NELUP database and the DSS models and interface philosophy and design. The results of workshops, conducted with potential users of the DSS, are discussed and summarised.     

Natural trees—neighbourhood-location in a nutshell

Abstract

We present the notion of a natural tree as an efficient method for storing spatial information for quick access. A natural tree is a representation of spatial adjacency, organised to allow efficient addition of new data, access to existing data, or deletions. The nodes of a natural tree are compound elements obtained by a particular Delaunay triangulation algorithm. Improvements to that algorithm allow both the construction of the triangulation and subsequent access to neighbourhood information to be O(N log N). Applications include geographical information systems, contouring, and dynamical systems reconstruction.     

Hässeldala – a key site for Last Termination climate events in northern Europe

The Last Termination (19 000–11 000 a BP) with its rapid and distinct climate shifts provides a perfect laboratory to study the nature and regional impact of climate variability. The sedimentary succession from the ancient lake at Hässeldala Port in southern Sweden with its distinct Lateglacial/early Holocene stratigraphy (>14.1–9.5 cal. ka BP) is one of the few chronologically well‐constrained, multi‐proxy sites in Europe that capture a variety of local and regional climatic and environmental signals. Here we present Hässeldala's multi‐proxy records (lithology, geochemistry, pollen, diatoms, chironomids, biomarkers, hydrogen isotopes) in a refined age model and place the observed changes in lake status, catchment vegetation, summer temperatures and hydroclimate in a wider regional context. Reconstructed mean July temperatures increased between c. 14.1 and c. 13.1 cal. ka BP and subsequently declined. This latter cooling coincided with drier hydroclimatic conditions that were probably associated with a freshening of the Nordic Seas and started a few hundred years before the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (c. 12.9 cal. ka BP). Our proxies suggest a further shift towards colder and drier conditions as late as c. 12.7 cal. ka BP, which was followed by the establishment of a stadial climate regime (c. 12.5–11.8 cal. ka BP). The onset of warmer and wetter conditions preceded the Holocene warming over Greenland by c. 200 years. Hässeldala's proxies thus highlight the complexity of environmental and hydrological responses across abrupt climate transitions in northern Europe.     

Global music city: knowledge and geographical proximity in London's recorded music industry

Drawing from debates in economic geography on relational and organisational proximity as a substitute for geographical proximity, the paper explores characteristics of knowledge transfer in London's recorded music industry through an examination of organisational connections on local and global scales. The paper demonstrates that knowledge transfer within the industry occurs simultaneously across multiple geographical scales, with certain organisational connections facilitating the transfer of tacit knowledge across organisational boundaries. However, the paper argues that these connections do not offer the same scope for trust as is afforded by frequent face-to-face contact and therefore offer only a partial substitute for geographical proximity.     

Aerosol light absorption, black carbon, and elemental carbon at the Fresno Supersite, California

Particle light absorption (b_ap), black carbon (BC), and elemental carbon (EC) measurements at the Fresno Supersite during the summer of 2005 were compared to examine the equivalency of current techniques, evaluate filter-based b_ap correction methods, and determine the EC mass absorption efficiency (σ_ap) and the spectral dependence of b_ap. The photoacoustic analyzer (PA) was used as a benchmark for in-situ b_ap. Most b_ap measurement techniques were well correlated (r ≥ 0.95). Unadjusted Aethalometer (AE) and Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP) b_ap were up to seven times higher than PA b_ap at similar wavelengths because of absorption enhancement by backscattering and multiple scattering. Applying published algorithms to correct for these effects reduced the differences to 24 and 17% for the AE and PSAP, respectively, at 532 nm. The Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP), which accounts for backscattering effects, overestimated b_ap relative to the PA by 51%. BC concentrations determined by the AE, MAAP, and Sunset Laboratory semi-continuous carbon analyzer were also highly correlated (r ≥ 0.93) but differed by up to 57%. EC measured with the IMPROVE/STN thermal/optical protocols, and the French two-step thermal protocol agreed to within 29%. Absorption efficiencies determined from PA b_ap and EC measured with different analytical protocols averaged 7.9 ± 1.5, 5.4 ± 1.1, and 2.8 ± 0.6 m²/g at 532, 670, and 1047 nm, respectively. The Angström exponent (α) determined from adjusted AE and PA b_ap ranged from 1.19 to 1.46. The largest values of α occurred during the afternoon hours when the organic fraction of total carbon was highest. Significant biases associated with filter-based measurements of b_ap, BC, and EC are method-specific. Correcting for these biases must take into account differences in aerosol concentration, composition, and sources.     

Development and Application of a Method to Identify Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Wetlands are commonly assessed for ecological condition and biological integrity using a three-tiered framework of landscape-scale assessment, rapid assessment protocols, and intensive biological and physiochemical measurements. However, increased inundation resulting from accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is negatively impacting tidal marsh ecosystem functions for US Northeast coastal wetlands, yet relative vulnerability to this stressor is not incorporated in condition assessments. This article assesses tools available to measure coastal wetland vulnerability to SLR, including measurements made as part of traditional rapid condition assessments (e.g., vegetation communities, soil strength), field and remote sensing-based measurements of elevation, VDatum, and Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) model outputs. A vulnerability metric that incorporates these tools was calibrated and validated using recent rates of marsh vegetation losses (1972–2011) as a surrogate for future vulnerability. The metric includes complementary measures of elevation capital, including the percentage of high vs. low marsh vegetation, Spartina alterniflora height, elevation measurements, and SLAMM outputs that collectively explained 62% of the variability in recent rates of marsh vegetation loss. Stepwise regression revealed that all three elements (elevation, vegetation measures, and SLAMM outputs) explained significant and largely unique components of vulnerability to SLR, with the greatest level of overlap found between SLAMM outputs and elevation metrics. While soil strength varied predictably with habitat zone, it did not contribute significantly to the vulnerability metric. Despite the importance of determining wetland elevation above key tidal datums of mean sea level and mean high water, we caution that VDatum was found to perform poorly in back-barrier estuaries. This factor makes it difficult to compare elevation capital among marshes that differ in tidal range and poses accuracy problems for broad-scale modeling efforts that require accurate tidal datums. Given the pervasive pattern of coastal wetland drowning occurring in the Northeastern USA and elsewhere, we advocate that compilation of regional data on marsh habitats and vulnerability to SLR is crucial as it permits agencies to target adaptation to sites based on their vulnerability or mixture of habitats, it helps match sites to appropriate interventions, and it provides a broader regional context to site-specific management actions. Without such data, adaptation actions may be implemented where action is not necessary and to the disadvantage of vulnerable sites where opportunities for successful adaptation will be missed.     

Planned and serendipitous surveys with XMM‐Newton

This article compares and contrasts the virtues of planned (and normally contiguous) surveys with XMM‐Newton and the XMM‐Newton serendipitous sky survey and discusses various ways in which both the quality and efficiency of contiguous surveys with XMM‐Newton could potentially be improved. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

ANALYSIS OF DISPERSION ON A SPHERE

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The probability density on a sphere, exp ( K cos θ'), where θ' is the angle between the polar and observation vectors, has recently been suggested by Fisher for the analysis of palaeo-magnetic data. In this paper, a series of approximate tests of significance is given for hypotheses about the precision constant K and the polar vector