Representation of Uncertainty and Integration of PGIS-based Grazing Intensity Maps Using Evidential Belief Functions

In a project to classify livestock grazing intensity using participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), we encountered the problem of how to synthesize PGIS-based maps of livestock grazing intensity that were prepared separately by local experts. We investigated the utility of evidential belief functions (EBFs) and Dempster's rule of combination to represent classification uncertainty and integrate the PGIS-based grazing intensity maps. These maps were used as individual sets of evidence in the application of EBFs to evaluate the proposition that " This area or pixel belongs to the high, medium, or low grazing intensity class because the local expert(s) says (say) so ". The class-area-weighted averages of EBFs based on each of the PGIS-based maps show that the lowest degree of classification uncertainty is associated with maps in which "vegetation species" was used as the mapping criterion. This criterion, together with local landscape attributes of livestock use may be considered as an appropriate standard measure for grazing intensity. The maps of integrated EBFs of grazing intensity show that classification uncertainty is high when the local experts apply at least two mapping criteria together. This study demonstrates the usefulness of EBFs to represent classification uncertainty and the possibility to use the EBF values in identifying and using criteria for PGIS-based mapping of livestock grazing intensity.     

The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range

It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series.Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem.The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.     

Desertification as a Global environmental issue

Compared to other environmental issues, such as Global Warming/Climatic Change, and the Ozone Hole, Desertification has been neglected by both scientists and funding agencies. The reasons are the complexity of the problem and the poverty and marginality of the arid lands. The author suggests a policy-oriented definition and draws attention to the differences between drought, desiccation and dry-land degradation.     

Suspended particulate grain size dynamics and their implications for trace metal sorption in the Don River

We examined particle size distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM); physical and environmental influences on the observed distributions; and relationships between particle size and geochemical partitioning of metals, over the fall and winter period in a small urban river (Don River, Toronto, Ontario, Canada). For this dataset, the majority of particles (80%) in suspension were less than 10 µm in size. In addition, while total SPM concentrations showed a positive trend with increasing discharge (Q); the proportions of particles found within given size classes were independent of both SPM concentration and Q. Temperature was the only measured environmental variable related to the particle concentrations within size classes. As water temperature increased, the concentration of particles in the smallest size class (1–4 µm) decreased, while the concentration of silt and/or algae sized particles (10–50 µm) increased. Increasing water temperatures may promote bacterial attachment to particles and their subsequent flocculation into larger sized particles. Decreasing concentrations of leachable (most labile) Cd, Zn and Mn were associated with increasing concentrations of the largest particles (70–150 µm) in suspension. In contrast, higher reducible (oxides) associated concentrations of Cd, Zn and Mn occurred with increasing concentrations of smaller particles (1–10 µm) in suspension. Both of these trends are speculated to reflect the importance of particle surface area for metal sorption reactions.     

An integrated data-directed numerical method for estimating the undiscovered mineral endowment in a region

An integrated data-directed numerical method has been developed to estimate the undiscovered mineral endowment within a given area. The method has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. The favorability of uranium concentration was evaluated in each of 2,068 cells defined within the Basin. Favorability was based on the correlated similarity of the geologic characteristics of each cell to the geologic characteristics of five area-related deposit models. Estimates of the undiscovered endowment for each cell were categorized according to deposit type, depth, and cutoff grade. The method can be applied to any mineral or energy commodity provided that the data collected reflect discovered endowment.     

Wind erosion climatic erosivity

A physically based wind-erosion climatic factor has been derived: $$CE = \rho \int {[u^2 } - (u_T^2 + \gamma ^l /\rho a^2 )]^{3/2} f(u)du$$ where ? is the air density, a is a constant made up of other constants (von Karman, height of wind speed observation, roughness parameter), u is the horizontal wind speed, u _T is threshold wind speed, f(u) u) is a wind speed probability density function, and γ is the cohesive resistance caused by water on the soil particles. Cohesive resistance is proportional to the square of water content relative to water content at ?1500 J kg^?1. Relative water content is approximated from the Budyko dryness ratio and the Thornthwaite PE index with similar results. CE is calculable from wind speed and other generally available meteorological data, and is usable in the wind erosion equation without some of the limitations of a previously used wind erosion climatic factor.     

Development of a tidal marsh in a New England river valley

A model for the geomorphic and vegetation development of a river valley tidal marsh in southern New England (Connecticut) is based on both the species composition of roots and rhizomes and on the mineralogic sediments preserved in peat. The maximum depth of salt marsh peat is 3.8 m and in the deepest areas this can overlie up to 1.9 m of fresh to brackish water peat. Based on a radiocarbon date of 3670±140 yr before the present (B.P.) for basal peat at a depth of 4.0 m, vertical accretion rates have averaged ca. 1.1 mm yr^?1. Salt marsh formation began in response to rising sea level 3800–4000 yr B.P., as brackish marshes, dominated by bulrush (Scirpus sp.), replaced freshwater wetlands along stream and river channels. Gradually salt marsh vegetation developed over submerging brackish marshes, adjacent uplands, and accreting tidal flats. By 3000 yr B.P. the lower estuary was tidal, with sufficient salinity for salt marsh to dominate most wetlands. Spikegrass (Distichlis spicata) was an important early colonizer in salt marsh formation and its role in marsh development has not been documented previously. Blackgrass (Juncus gerardi), currently a typical upper border species, appears in the peat record relatively recently, perhaps within the last few centuries. In contrast, reed (Phragmites australis) has been present for at least 3500 yr. The dominance of reed along the upper border today, however, appears to be a relatively recent phenomenon.     

Ice and climate modeling: An editorial essay

The growth and decay of ice sheets are driven by forces affecting the seasonal cycles of snowfall and snowmelt. The external forces are likely to be variations in the earth's orbit which cause differences in the solar radiation received. Radiational control of snowmelt is modulated by the seasonal cycles of snow albedo and cloud cover. The effects of orbital changes can be magnified by feedbacks involving atmospheric CO₂ content, ocean temperatures and desert areas. Climate modeling of the causes of the Pleistocene ice ages involves modeling the interactions of all components of the climate system; snow, sea ice, glacier ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and the solid earth. Such modeling is also necessary for interpreting oxygen isotope records from ice and ocean as paleoclimatic evidence.